diff --git a/website/src/components/home/TypewriterPrompt.tsx b/website/src/components/home/TypewriterPrompt.tsx index 4371434e8..eb5f9c29e 100644 --- a/website/src/components/home/TypewriterPrompt.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/home/TypewriterPrompt.tsx @@ -13,160 +13,168 @@ export interface PromptData { loserPct: number; // fraction that lose (remainder are unaffected) } +// Winner/loser shares are computed against the PolicyEngine 2026 baseline by +// the policyengine-prompt-impacts package. Regenerate via: +// policyengine-prompt-impacts run --country all --tsx prompts.tsx +// See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-prompt-impacts. const UK_PROMPTS: PromptData[] = [ { text: "the impact of raising the basic rate to 25p", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.65, + loserPct: 0.71, }, { - text: "how a £2,000 UBI would affect child poverty", - winnerPct: 0.75, - loserPct: 0.2, + text: "the poverty impact of a £40/week universal child benefit", + winnerPct: 0.23, + loserPct: 0, + }, + { + text: "who loses from abolishing the personal allowance", + winnerPct: 0, + loserPct: 0.88, }, { - text: "who gains from abolishing the personal allowance", + text: "revenue from a 50p additional rate", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.85, + loserPct: 0.02, }, - { text: "revenue from a 50p additional rate", winnerPct: 0, loserPct: 0.02 }, { text: "how removing the benefit cap affects single parents", - winnerPct: 0.05, + winnerPct: 0.009, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "whether Universal Credit cuts push families into poverty", + text: "the poverty impact of cutting the UC standard allowance by £10/week", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.3, + loserPct: 0.19, }, { - text: "how reducing the UC taper rate to 45% helps workers", - winnerPct: 0.25, + text: "how reducing the UC taper rate to 45% affects workers", + winnerPct: 0.09, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "who loses from means-testing the state pension", + text: "who loses from a 5% cut to the state pension", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.4, + loserPct: 0.25, }, { text: "how raising NI thresholds affects low-income workers", - winnerPct: 0.45, + winnerPct: 0.55, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "the marginal tax rate cliff at Universal Credit taper", - winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.15, + text: "who gains from doubling the UC work allowance", + winnerPct: 0.07, + loserPct: 0, }, { text: "the poverty impact of a £25/week child benefit increase", - winnerPct: 0.35, + winnerPct: 0.23, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "how scrapping the two-child limit affects large families", - winnerPct: 0.08, + text: "the cost of doubling child benefit", + winnerPct: 0.23, loserPct: 0, }, { text: "how raising the higher rate threshold affects middle earners", - winnerPct: 0.2, + winnerPct: 0.18, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "who benefits from tapering the higher rate threshold", + text: "who loses from lowering the higher rate threshold to £40,000", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.15, + loserPct: 0.28, }, { text: "how doubling the marriage allowance affects couples", - winnerPct: 0.12, + winnerPct: 0.08, loserPct: 0, }, { text: "the impact of lowering the additional rate threshold", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.05, + loserPct: 0.03, }, ]; const US_PROMPTS: PromptData[] = [ { text: "how tripling the standard deduction affects median income", - winnerPct: 0.7, + winnerPct: 0.62, loserPct: 0, }, { text: "the poverty impact of expanding the Child Tax Credit", - winnerPct: 0.35, + winnerPct: 0.14, loserPct: 0, }, { text: "the distributional impact of expanding the EITC", - winnerPct: 0.3, + winnerPct: 0.14, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "the impact of removing the SALT cap on high earners", - winnerPct: 0.15, + text: "the distributional impact of removing the SALT cap", + winnerPct: 0.02, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "the cost of making the standard deduction universal", - winnerPct: 0.45, - loserPct: 0.1, + text: "the cost of making the Child Tax Credit fully refundable", + winnerPct: 0.09, + loserPct: 0, }, { text: "the poverty impact of doubling SNAP benefits", - winnerPct: 0.2, + winnerPct: 0.16, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "how a flat tax at 25% compares to the current system", - winnerPct: 0.4, - loserPct: 0.4, + text: "the impact of raising all income tax rates by 5 points", + winnerPct: 0, + loserPct: 0.63, }, { text: "who pays more from eliminating the payroll tax cap", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.06, + loserPct: 0.04, }, { text: "how raising the top rate to 45% affects revenue", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.03, + loserPct: 0.008, }, { - text: "who benefits from expanding the Child and Dependent Care Credit", - winnerPct: 0.25, + text: "who benefits from doubling the Child and Dependent Care Credit", + winnerPct: 0.03, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "how increasing SSI benefits affects poverty", - winnerPct: 0.15, + text: "how raising SSI benefits by 25% affects poverty", + winnerPct: 0.04, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "how capping itemized deductions at $50,000 affects revenue", + text: "the revenue from lowering the SALT cap to $10,000", winnerPct: 0, - loserPct: 0.12, + loserPct: 0.06, }, { - text: "the impact of restoring the expanded CTC permanently", - winnerPct: 0.35, + text: "the impact of restoring the expanded Child Tax Credit", + winnerPct: 0.1, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "who benefits from expanding Medicaid eligibility", - winnerPct: 0.12, + text: "who benefits from the senior bonus deduction", + winnerPct: 0.13, loserPct: 0, }, { - text: "the impact of making the TCJA provisions permanent", - winnerPct: 0.6, - loserPct: 0.05, + text: "who benefits from the no-tax-on-tips deduction", + winnerPct: 0.004, + loserPct: 0, }, ];