diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..c54849d10 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Add a regional childcare programmes planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md` enumerating the Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland childcare schemes not yet modelled (Scottish eligible-2yo strand, SAAS grants; Welsh Childcare Offer, Flying Start, Welsh student grants; NI Pre-school Education Programme, Sure Start, NI student grants) and the per-programme implementation pattern that complements the #1644 audit. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..e9afde54d --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -0,0 +1,160 @@ +# Regional childcare programmes (planned) + +```{warning} +**Partially modelled.** PolicyEngine UK models the **England** funded +childcare programmes (Universal, Extended and Targeted Childcare +Entitlements; Care to Learn; Student Finance England Childcare Grant) +and the **UK-wide** Tax-Free Childcare scheme. The devolved +administrations operate parallel schemes that are not yet modelled +beyond the Scottish Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds added +in [#1643][pr-1643]. This page captures the proposed scope, tracked +under [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) +and the broader [#1644 audit](./../../../programs.yaml). +``` + +## What's modelled today + +The current childcare coverage is captured in `programs.yaml` (see the +[#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows: + +- **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare + element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (DWP, legacy, see + [tax-credits.md](./../dwp/tax-credits.md)). +- **England-only** (gate on `country == ENGLAND`): + Universal Childcare Entitlement (15h), Extended Childcare Entitlement + (30h working parents), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (disadvantaged + 2-year-olds + working families with younger children), Care to Learn, + Student Finance England Childcare Grant. +- **Scotland**: Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds (1,140 + hrs/year) added in [#1643][pr-1643]. +- **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled. + +## Proposed scope by jurisdiction + +### Scotland — three remaining strands + +The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: + +1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme + (vulnerable / low-income 2-year-olds under the + [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children) + (Scotland) Order 2014][sssi-196-2014]). Modelled the same way as the + 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on a means test against UC / + tax credits / equivalent qualifying benefits. +2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) Lone Parents' Grant, + Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students + — the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare + Grant. Income-tested, paid at standard weekly rates. +3. **Scottish EMA-equivalent** for young parents in further education + (the [Educational Maintenance Allowance][saas-ema] is paid by local + authorities in Scotland under SAAS oversight; the childcare-support + layer parallels Care to Learn in England). + +### Wales + +The audit identified four Welsh programmes: + +1. **Childcare Offer for Wales** — 30 hours/week for working parents + of 3- and 4-year-olds (term-time + a portion of holiday weeks). + Modelled the same as the English Extended Childcare Entitlement + with Welsh-specific income tests and hour caps. Statutory basis: + [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. +2. **Flying Start** — universal preschool offer in disadvantaged areas + for 2- and 3-year-olds (12.5 hours/week). Geographic eligibility + based on lower-super-output-area data. +3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant** — parallel to the English + Childcare Grant. +4. **Welsh EMA** — parallel to Scottish EMA. + +### Northern Ireland + +The audit identified four NI programmes: + +1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)** — 12.5 hours/week for 3- + and 4-year-olds. Universal. +2. **Sure Start** — younger disadvantaged children (2-3yo). +3. **Student Finance NI Childcare Grant**. +4. **NI EMA**. + +## Implementation outline + +For each new programme: + +- New parameter tree under `parameters/gov///` + capturing the income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates. +- New variable(s) under `variables/gov///` gated on + the appropriate `country == ...` check. +- A `_eligible` companion variable that the new programme + variable composes with the rate parameter — same pattern as the + English entitlement trio. +- A `programs.yaml` row per programme, bound to the new variable and + parameter prefix. + +### Structural items deferred to this work + +The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also flagged two structural items that +become more pressing once the regional programmes land: + +- `weeks_per_year` and `childcare_funding_rate` currently sit at + `gov.dfe.*` root but encode English term-week and funding-rate + assumptions. They should be regionalised (e.g. + `gov.scotland.elc.weeks_per_year`) once the Scotland / Wales / NI + programmes are modelled. +- No aggregating variable across programmes exists (e.g. "total + subsidised childcare hours per child per week"). The API surfaces + the per-programme variables but can't answer "what's this family's + combined childcare support" without the caller summing. + +Both belong in a separate cleanup PR rather than mixed into the +per-programme work. + +## Data needs + +Most regional programmes are point-in-time per-hour funding rather +than per-household payments, so the data side is comparatively easy: + +- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level — + enough to gate eligibility. +- **Welsh Government Statistical Bulletins** publish Flying Start + and Childcare Offer caseloads by local authority. +- **Scottish Government Childcare and Early Years statistics** provide + Scottish funded ELC caseloads. +- **Department of Education NI** publishes PSEP caseloads. +- The SAAS / Student Finance Wales / NI Childcare Grants need the same + treatment as the English `childcare_grant` — calibration against + published award totals. + +The aggregating challenge is choosing whether to expose **subsidised +hours** or **subsidised cost** as the primary household-level +variable. Recommendation: subsidised cost, since that's what flows +through to `household_market_income` and the UC childcare element +disregards. + +## Open questions + +- Should the Scottish ELC universal strand and the eligible-two-year-old + strand be modelled as two separate variables (matching how England + splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the + age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring + the English pattern for queryability. +- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Do we have a postcode-to-LSOA + cross-walk in the FRS pipeline? +- All four EMA / EMA-equivalent schemes are now extinct in England but + still operational in the devolved nations. Should they be modelled + under the existing `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate + regional schemes? + +## References + +- Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644) — full childcare coverage audit. +- Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) — original Scotland/Wales/NI gap report. +- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643] — Scottish Universal Funded ELC. +- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](../../../../policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). +- Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. +- Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014]. + +[issue-1644]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644 +[pr-1643]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1643 +[wales-act]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2019/1/contents +[sssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents/made +[saas-ema]: https://www.saas.gov.uk/funding/maintenance-allowance