Description
Implement the core probabilistic scoring framework used across Tiers II and III.
Components
- CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) for ensemble evaluation
- Spread–skill ratio for ensemble calibration
- NRMSE for deterministic diagnostics
- Spatial correlation for pattern evaluation
- Consider spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance (Garrett et al., 2024) for future versions
Notes
- Must handle different ensemble sizes gracefully
- Adapted for larger observational uncertainties in Tier III (proxy data)
- Computational cost (wall-clock time, peak memory) reported but not scored
Description
Implement the core probabilistic scoring framework used across Tiers II and III.
Components
Notes