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Counter-intuitive care sensitivity scenarios #40

@robynstuart

Description

@robynstuart

Problem

Care sensitivity analysis shows that increasing care-seeking rates for women with HMB-related anemia has less impact on outcomes than expected. Even when anemic women have substantially higher care-seeking probabilities, the intervention impact on anemia prevalence remains modest.

Observations from care sensitivity scenarios

When anemia odds ratio increases from baseline (2.7x) to high (5x or 10x):

  • More anemic women enter the care cascade
  • Treatment uptake among anemic women increases
  • But overall anemia reduction is smaller than anticipated

Potential explanations

  1. Timing lag: Anemia develops over time with persistent HMB. By the time women are anemic and seek care more actively, damage may already be done. Earlier intervention (before anemia develops) might be more effective.

  2. Treatment effectiveness: Treatments resolve HMB but anemia recovery may lag behind. Women stop bleeding heavily but hemoglobin restoration takes months. Are we tracking anemia resolution appropriately?

  3. Adherence and discontinuation: Anemic women may start treatment but non-adherence or treatment ineffectiveness returns them to HMB state before anemia resolves.

  4. Population reach: Most anemic women may already be seeking care at baseline. Increasing care-seeking rates only affects a small additional population.

  5. Cascade position: Higher care-seeking among anemic women gets them into the cascade, but they still need to progress through treatments and experience delays before reaching effective options.

Investigation needed

  • What proportion of anemic women are already seeking care at baseline?
  • How quickly does anemia resolve after HMB is treated?
  • Are anemic women more or less likely to be treatment responders?
  • Does anemia affect adherence or cascade progression patterns?
  • What is the distribution of treatment exposure among anemic vs non-anemic women?

Discussion

Understanding these dynamics is critical for targeting interventions effectively. If care-seeking increases have limited impact, should we focus on improving treatment effectiveness, accelerating cascade progression, or preventing HMB onset rather than increasing care access?

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