diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index a922924be..2dd816f99 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -37,7 +37,11 @@ requirements_2025-08-11.txt .build .cache .eggs + .env +*.env +tests/regenerate-example-result.env + .installed.cfg .ve bin diff --git a/README.rst b/README.rst index ad9530116..f912204ab 100644 --- a/README.rst +++ b/README.rst @@ -168,6 +168,10 @@ Example-specific web interface deeplinks are listed in the Link column. - Input file - Case report file - Link + * - Case Study: 500 MWe EGS modeled on Fervo Cape Station Phase II (`documentation `__) + - `Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt `__ + - `.out `__ + - `link `__ * - Example 1: EGS Electricity - `example1.txt `__ - `.out `__ @@ -288,10 +292,10 @@ Example-specific web interface deeplinks are listed in the Link column. - `Fervo_Project_Cape-3.txt `__ - `.out `__ - `link `__ - * - Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station (`documentation `__) - - `Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt `__ - - `.out `__ - - `link `__ + * - 100 MWe EGS modeled on Fervo Cape Station Phase I + - `Fervo_Project_Cape-5.txt `__ + - `.out `__ + - `link `__ * - Superhot Rock (SHR) Example 1 - `example_SHR-1.txt `__ - `.out `__ diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md index 4c0c3f8ea..290a7deb3 100644 --- a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md @@ -1,19 +1,18 @@ -# Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station +# Case Study: 500 MWe EGS modeled on Fervo Cape Station Phase II -The GEOPHIRES example `Fervo_Project_Cape-4` is a case study of a 500 MWe EGS Project modeled -on Fervo Cape Station with its April 2025-announced -[upsizing from 400 MW to 500 MW](https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/). -Case study inputs are formulated using a combination of publicly available data, extrapolations, and estimates. -Financial results are calculated -using -the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). +The GEOPHIRES example `Fervo_Project_Cape-4` is a case study of a 500 MWe EGS project modeled +on Phase II of [Fervo Energy's Cape Station](https://capestation.com/). -Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. +Key case study results include LCOE = $81.6/MWh and IRR = 21.3%. [Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface. -## Approach & Methodology +## Methodology + +Case study inputs are formulated using a combination of publicly available data, extrapolations, and estimates. +Financial results are calculated using +the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). The case study is constructed to be representative of a 500 MWe EGS project similar to Cape Station, although it is not intended to be an exact facsimile. @@ -22,6 +21,13 @@ applicable outside of Cape Station's first-of-a-kind status (such as drilling costs of initial wells which were more expensive at [$4.8–9.4M per well](https://houston.innovationmap.com/fervo-energy-drilling-utah-project-2667300142.html)). +The Inputs and Results tables document key assumptions, inputs, and a comparison of results with reference +values. +Note that these are not the complete sets of inputs and results, which are available in source code and +the [web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4). + +### Inputs + Exact values were used for publicly available technical and engineering parameters, such as reservoir density ([2800 kg/m³](https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B)). Some technical parameters were inferred with high confidence from publicly available data, such as geothermal @@ -29,50 +35,43 @@ gradient ([74 ℃/km](https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024 Other parameters were extrapolated or speculatively estimated based on plausibility and/or compatibility with known results, such as number of doublets. -The Inputs and Results tables below document key assumptions, inputs, and a comparison of results with reference -values. -Note that these are not the complete sets of inputs and results, which are available in source code and -the [web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4). - -## Inputs - See [Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt) in source code for the full set of inputs. -### Economic Parameters - -| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | -|-----------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| -| Economic Model | SAM Single Owner PPA | The SAM Single Owner PPA economic model is used to calculate financial results including LCOE, NPV, IRR, and pro-forma cash flow analysis. See [GEOPHIRES documentation of SAM Economic Models](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html) for details on how System Advisor Model financial models are integrated into GEOPHIRES. | -| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 | -| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | -| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | -| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | -| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | -| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | -| Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. | -| Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects | -| Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | -| Construction Years | 1 | Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | - -### Technical & Engineering Parameters - -| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | -|-------------------------------|----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| -| Plant Lifetime | 30 years | 30-year well life per Fervo Energy, 2025 (Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts). | -| Construction time | 1 year | Calibrated to a 2–6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025). Note that the Inflation Rate During Construction parameter hedges against potential construction delays. | -| Well diameter | 9⅝ inches | Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" | -| Flow Rate per Production Well | 107 kg/s | Fercho et al, 2025 models reservoir performance using 100 kg/s per well. The announced increased casing diameter implies higher flow rates, so the case study uses the maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station of 107 kg/s per Fervo Energy, 2024. | -| Number of Doublets | 59 | Estimate based on extrapolation from previous case studies including [Project Red](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023) and [Fervo_Project_Cape-3](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | -| Number of Fractures per well | 102 | Estimate. (Note this is not a direct GEOPHIRES input parameter but was used to calculate other case study GEOPHIRES input parameters such as reservoir volume.) | -| Fracture Separation | 18 m | Per Norbeck et al, 2024: lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. | -| Fracture Geometry | 165.3 m × 165.3 m (Square) | Extrapolated from 30 million ft² fracture surface area per well per Fercho et al, 2025. | -| Reservoir Volume | 5,919,217,617 m³ | Calculated from fracture area (27,324.09 m²) × fracture separation (18 m) × targeted number of fractures per well (102) | -| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate is conservatively estimated to be between 10 and 20%. Other estimates and some simulations may suggest a significantly lower water loss rate than this conservative estimate. See [Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts](https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/) (Fervo Energy, 2025). | -| Maximum Drawdown | 0.0153 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years | -| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001565 GPa.s/m³ | Yields ~15% initial pumping power/net installed power | -| Injection Temperature | 53.6 ℃ | Calibrated with GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature (Beckers & McCabe, 2019). Close to upper bound of Project Red injection temperatures (75–125℉; 23.89–51.67℃) (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023). | +#### Economic Parameters + +| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | +|-----------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Economic Model | SAM Single Owner PPA | The SAM Single Owner PPA economic model is used to calculate financial results including LCOE, NPV, IRR, and pro-forma cash flow analysis. See [GEOPHIRES documentation of SAM Economic Models](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html) for details on how System Advisor Model financial models are integrated into GEOPHIRES. | +| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5¢/kWh, escalating to 10¢/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 and 2024b NREL ATBs (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | +| Inflation Rate | 2.7% | US inflation rate as of December 2025 | +| Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Geothermal Drilling & Completions Apprenticeship Program ensures compliance with ITC labor requirements (Southern Utah University, 2024). | +| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | +| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 8% | Higher than typical debt annual interest rate | +| Inflated Bond Interest Rate During Construction | 10% | Higher interest rate during construction to account for increased risk of default | +| Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. | +| Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects | +| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | {Vertical large baseline correlation} × {adjustment factor = 0.9} | NREL, 2025; Akindipe & Witter, 2025. Note: Fervo claims lower drilling costs of <$4M/well (Latimer, 2025), which would equivalent to an adjustment factor of 0.8. | +| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.83M (all-in cost, including 5% indirect costs and 15% contingency) | The all-in cost is based on a $4M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). Costs are also driven by the requirement for high-strength ceramic proppant rather than standard sand, which would crush or chemically degrade (diagenesis) over a 30-year lifecycle at 200℃ (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014) and the premium for ultra-high-temperature (HT) downhole tools. | +| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | + +#### Technical & Engineering Parameters + +| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | +|-------------------------------|--------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Construction Years | 5 | Ground broken in 2023 (Fervo Energy, 2023). Expected to reach full scale production in 2028 (Fervo Energy, 2025). | +| Plant Lifetime | 30 years | 30-year well life per Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts (Fervo Energy, 2025). | +| Well diameter | 9⅝ inches (OD); 8½ inches (ID) | 9⅝" is the next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" (Fervo Energy, 2025). | +| Flow Rate per Production Well | 120 kg/s | Fercho et al, 2025 models reservoir performance using 100 kg/s per well. The maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station was 107 kg/s (Fervo Energy, 2024). The announced increased casing diameter implies higher flow rates. | +| Number of Doublets | 50 | Fervo expects each well pair (doublet) to initially produce up to 11 MWe (gross) at a 107 kg/s flow rate. A well pair producing 11 MWe gross with ~10% parasitic loss produces approximately 10 MWe net. | +| Number of Fractures per Well | 200 | The model assumes a "High-Intensity" stimulation design utilizing 25 geometric stages with 8 clusters per stage (Extreme Limited Entry) (Fervo Energy, 2023). | +| Fracture Separation | 7.32 m | Based on number of fractures per lateral and lateral length | +| Fracture Geometry | 186.16 m diameter (Circular) | Approximates ellipsoidal fracture with 228 meter height and 152 meter width | +| Reservoir Volume | 3,981,853,090 m³ | Calculated from fracture area × fracture separation × number of fractures per well | +| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate is conservatively estimated to be between 10 and 20%. Other estimates and some simulations may suggest a significantly lower water loss rate than this conservative estimate. See [Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts](https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/) (Fervo Energy, 2025). | +| Maximum Drawdown | 2% | This value represents the drop in production temperature compared to the initial temperature that is allowed before the wellfield is redrilled. It is tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation over the project lifetime ≥500 MWe. | +| Productivity Index | 2.494 kg/s/bar | NREL ATB conservative scenario. Yields ~10% initial pumping power/net installed power. | +| Injection Temperature | 53.6℃ | Calibrated with GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature (Beckers & McCabe, 2019). Close to upper bound of Project Red injection temperatures (75–125℉; 23.89–51.67℃) (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023). | ## Results @@ -83,54 +82,93 @@ in source code for the complete results. | Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | |------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| -| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | -| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | | -| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $3.96M/well; $467.75M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | -| Stimulation Costs | $4.6M/well; $542.8M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | -| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | -| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| LCOE | $81.6/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | +| After-tax IRR | 21.3% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5300/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.85B | | | +| WACC | 9.49% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | +| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $4.46M/well; $446M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | +| Stimulation Costs | $4.83M/well; $483M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025. | ### Technical & Engineering Results -| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | -|-------------------------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| -| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 504 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. | -| Maximum Net Electricity Generation | 537 MW | | | -| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. | -| Number of times redrilling | 3 | 3–6 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start | -| Average Production Temperature | 199℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. | -| Total fracture surface area per production well | 2.787×10⁶ m² | 2.787×10⁶ m² (30 million ft² per well) | Fercho et al, 2025. | +| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | +|-------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 501 MW | 500 MW | The announced upsizing to 500 MWe (Fervo Energy, 2025) is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation does not fall below 500 MWe. | +| Maximum Net Electricity Generation | 535 MW | | | +| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 587 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. | +| Number of times redrilling | 2 | 2–5 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start | +| Average Production Temperature | 200℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. | +| Total fracture surface area per production well | 5.4×10⁶ m² (54 million ft² per well) | Project Red: 2.787×10⁶ m² (30 million ft²) | Greater fracture surface area expected than Project Red (Fercho et al, 2025). | + +### Sensitivity Analysis + +The following charts show the sensitivity of key metrics to various inputs. +Each chart shows the sensitivity of a single metric, such as LCOE, to the set of tested input values. +The leftmost chart column shows the parameter being tested and its baseline case study input value in parentheses. +The bars for each row show the deltas of the metric value from the baseline case study value for the values tested for +that parameter. +Green bars indicate favorable outcomes, such as lower LCOE or higher IRR, while gray bars indicate unfavorable outcomes, +such as higher LCOE or lower IRR. + +Click the bars to view the sensitivity analysis result for the input value in the web interface. -## Uncertainty & Sensitivities +### LCOE -Given the methodological approach, including speculative estimation of some input parameters, and lack of real-world -reference data for comparison, the case study results are subject to uncertainty. Users may wish to perform their own -sensitivity analysis using [GEOPHIRES's Monte Carlo simulation module](Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.html) or other data analysis tools. +.. raw:: html -### Stimulation & Construction Inflation Costs + + -The following tables and heatmaps show Electricity breakeven price (LCOE) and NPV sensitivity to stimulation cost and inflation costs during construction (a proxy for construction delays and cost overruns). -Stimulation costs were tested from $2.3M/well (Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor = 0.5) to $9.2M/well (Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor = 2). -Inflation Rate During Construction was tested from 2.3% to 14.6%, yielding construction inflation costs ranging from $53.6M to $459M. + + LCOE Sensitivity Analysis Chart -#### LCOE +**Impact of PPA Price on LCOE:** The sensitivity analysis reveals a positive correlation between the Power Purchase +Agreement (PPA) price and the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). While counterintuitive, this is a function of SAM +Economic Models treating federal and state income taxes as operating cash outflows. -.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-lcoe-table_2025-08-18.png - :width: 66% +In SAM Economic Models, the PPA price is a fixed input that determines project revenue. A higher PPA price generates +higher taxable income, which in turn increases the project's annual income tax liability (a negative cash flow). Because +the LCOE calculation aggregates all lifetime project costs—including the tax burden—the additional tax costs incurred +from higher revenues result in a higher calculated LCOE. Conversely, a lower PPA price reduces taxable income, lowers +tax liability, and decreases the resulting LCOE. -.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-lcoe-heatmap_2025-08-13.png - :width: 66% +### IRR -#### NPV +.. raw:: html -.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-npv-table_2025-08-18.png - :width: 66% + -.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-npv-heatmap_2025-08-13.png - :width: 66% + IRR Sensitivity Analysis Chart +### NPV +.. raw:: html + + + + NPV Sensitivity Analysis Chart + +Users may wish to perform their own sensitivity analysis +using [GEOPHIRES's Monte Carlo simulation module](Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.html) or other data analysis tools. + +## 100 MWe Phase I Model + +The case study also includes a 100 MWe Phase I model, `Fervo_Project_Cape-5`. +[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-5) to view the +Phase I model in the GEOPHIRES web interface. ## References @@ -148,15 +186,24 @@ Update on the geology, temperature, fracturing, and resource potential at the Ca acquired from the drilling of additional horizontal EGS wells. Proceedings of the 50th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA. https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2025/Fercho.pdf +Fervo Energy. (2023, September 19). Fervo’s Commercialization Plans for Enhanced Geothermal Systems ( +EGS). https://egi.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/09.45-Emma-McConville-Fervo_EGI_Sept-19-2023.pdf + +Fervo Energy. (2023, September 25). Fervo Energy Breaks Ground on the World’s Largest Next-gen Geothermal Project. +https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-breaks-ground-on-the-worlds-largest-next-gen-geothermal-project/ + +Fervo Energy. (2024, September 10). Fervo Energy’s Record-Breaking Production Results Showcase Rapid Scale Up of +Enhanced +Geothermal. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal + Fervo Energy. (2025, March 31). Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts. https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/ Fervo Energy. (2025, April 15). Fervo Energy Announces 31 MW Power Purchase Agreement with Shell Energy. https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/ -Fervo Energy. (2024, September 10). Fervo Energy’s Record-Breaking Production Results Showcase Rapid Scale Up of -Enhanced -Geothermal. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal +Fervo Energy (2025, June 11). Fervo Energy Secures $206 Million In New Financing To Accelerate Cape Station Development. +https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-secures-new-financing-to-accelerate-development/ Gradl, C. (2018). Review of Recent Unconventional Completion Innovations and their Applicability to EGS Wells. Stanford Geothermal Workshop. @@ -199,8 +246,18 @@ Oil. https://quantumprot.com/uploads/images/2b8583e8ce8038681a19d5ad1314e204.pdf Shiozawa, S., & McClure, M. (2014). EGS Designs with Horizontal Wells, Multiple Stages, and Proppant. ResFrac. https://www.resfrac.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Shiozawa.pdf +Southern Utah University. (2024, October 23). Fervo Energy, Southern Utah University, and Elemental Impact Launch +Geothermal Drilling & Completions Apprenticeship Program. +https://www.suu.edu/news/2024/10/geothermal-energy-joint-campaign.html + US DOE. (2021). Combined Heat and Power Technology Fact Sheet Series: Waste Heat to Power. https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf Yusifov, M., & Enriquez, N. (2025, July). From Core to Code: Powering the Al Revolution with Geothermal Energy. Project InnerSpace. https://projectinnerspace.org/resources/Powering-the-AI-Revolution.pdf + +--- + +Previous case study versions: + +1. [Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.md#case-study-500-mwe-egs-project-modeled-on-fervo-cape-station) diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..9ab34ff93 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.md @@ -0,0 +1,211 @@ +# [v2025-08-11] Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station + +**⚠️ This is a previous version of the case study. The case study has been updated since the release of this version.** +[Click here](https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/blob/main/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md#case-study-500-mwe-egs-project-modeled-on-fervo-cape-station) to find the latest version. + +--- + +The GEOPHIRES example `Fervo_Project_Cape-4_vv2025-08-11` is a case study of a 500 MWe EGS Project modeled +on Fervo Cape Station with its April 2025-announced +[upsizing from 400 MW to 500 MW](https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/). +Case study inputs are formulated using a combination of publicly available data, extrapolations, and estimates. +Financial results are calculated +using +the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). + +Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. + +[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-02-24) to +interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface. + +## Approach & Methodology + +The case study is constructed to be representative of a 500 MWe EGS project similar to Cape Station, +although it is not intended to be an exact facsimile. +This is because not all relevant data points are publicly available (e.g. full PPA terms) while others may not be +applicable +outside of Cape Station's first-of-a-kind status (such as drilling costs of initial wells which were more expensive +at [$4.8–9.4M per well](https://houston.innovationmap.com/fervo-energy-drilling-utah-project-2667300142.html)). + +Exact values were used for publicly available technical and engineering parameters, such as reservoir +density ([2800 kg/m³](https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B)). +Some technical parameters were inferred with high confidence from publicly available data, such as geothermal +gradient ([74 ℃/km](https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf)) and well diameter. +Other parameters were extrapolated or speculatively estimated based on plausibility and/or compatibility with known +results, such as number of doublets. + +The Inputs and Results tables below document key assumptions, inputs, and a comparison of results with reference +values. +Note that these are not the complete sets of inputs and results, which are available in source code and +the [web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4). + +## Inputs + +See [Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.txt](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.txt) +in source code for the full set of inputs. + +### Economic Parameters + +| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | +|-----------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Economic Model | SAM Single Owner PPA | The SAM Single Owner PPA economic model is used to calculate financial results including LCOE, NPV, IRR, and pro-forma cash flow analysis. See [GEOPHIRES documentation of SAM Economic Models](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html) for details on how System Advisor Model financial models are integrated into GEOPHIRES. | +| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 | +| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | +| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | +| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | +| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | +| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | +| Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. | +| Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects | +| Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | +| Construction Years | 1 | Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | + +### Technical & Engineering Parameters + +| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | +|-------------------------------|----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Plant Lifetime | 30 years | 30-year well life per Fervo Energy, 2025 (Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts). | +| Construction time | 1 year | Calibrated to a 2–6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025). Note that the Inflation Rate During Construction parameter hedges against potential construction delays. | +| Well diameter | 9⅝ inches | Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" | +| Flow Rate per Production Well | 107 kg/s | Fercho et al, 2025 models reservoir performance using 100 kg/s per well. The announced increased casing diameter implies higher flow rates, so the case study uses the maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station of 107 kg/s per Fervo Energy, 2024. | +| Number of Doublets | 59 | Estimate based on extrapolation from previous case studies including [Project Red](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023) and [Fervo_Project_Cape-3](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | +| Number of Fractures per well | 102 | Estimate. (Note this is not a direct GEOPHIRES input parameter but was used to calculate other case study GEOPHIRES input parameters such as reservoir volume.) | +| Fracture Separation | 18 m | Per Norbeck et al, 2024: lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. | +| Fracture Geometry | 165.3 m × 165.3 m (Square) | Extrapolated from 30 million ft² fracture surface area per well per Fercho et al, 2025. | +| Reservoir Volume | 5,919,217,617 m³ | Calculated from fracture area (27,324.09 m²) × fracture separation (18 m) × targeted number of fractures per well (102) | +| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate is conservatively estimated to be between 10 and 20%. Other estimates and some simulations may suggest a significantly lower water loss rate than this conservative estimate. See [Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts](https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/) (Fervo Energy, 2025). | +| Maximum Drawdown | 0.0153 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years | +| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001565 GPa.s/m³ | Yields ~15% initial pumping power/net installed power | +| Injection Temperature | 53.6 ℃ | Calibrated with GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature (Beckers & McCabe, 2019). Close to upper bound of Project Red injection temperatures (75–125℉; 23.89–51.67℃) (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023). | + +## Results + +See [Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.out](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.out) +in source code for the complete results. + +### Economic Results + +| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | +|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| +| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | +| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | | +| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $3.96M/well; $467.75M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | +| Stimulation Costs | $4.6M/well; $542.8M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | +| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | +| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | + +### Technical & Engineering Results + +| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | +|-------------------------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 504 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. | +| Maximum Net Electricity Generation | 537 MW | | | +| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. | +| Number of times redrilling | 3 | 3–6 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start | +| Average Production Temperature | 199℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. | +| Total fracture surface area per production well | 2.787×10⁶ m² | 2.787×10⁶ m² (30 million ft² per well) | Fercho et al, 2025. | + +## Uncertainty & Sensitivities + +Given the methodological approach, including speculative estimation of some input parameters, and lack of real-world +reference data for comparison, the case study results are subject to uncertainty. Users may wish to perform their own +sensitivity analysis using [GEOPHIRES's Monte Carlo simulation module](Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.html) or other data analysis tools. + +### Stimulation & Construction Inflation Costs + +The following tables and heatmaps show Electricity breakeven price (LCOE) and NPV sensitivity to stimulation cost and inflation costs during construction (a proxy for construction delays and cost overruns). +Stimulation costs were tested from $2.3M/well (Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor = 0.5) to $9.2M/well (Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor = 2). +Inflation Rate During Construction was tested from 2.3% to 14.6%, yielding construction inflation costs ranging from $53.6M to $459M. + +#### LCOE + +.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-lcoe-table_2025-08-18.png + :width: 66% + +.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-lcoe-heatmap_2025-08-13.png + :width: 66% + +#### NPV + +.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-npv-table_2025-08-18.png + :width: 66% + +.. image:: _images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-npv-heatmap_2025-08-13.png + :width: 66% + + + +## References + +Akindipe, D. and Witter. E. (2025). "2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves +Update". https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2025/Akindipe.pdf?t=1740084555 + +Baytex Energy. (2024). Eagle Ford Presentation. +https://www.baytexenergy.com/content/uploads/2024/04/24-04-Baytex-Eagle-Ford-Presentation.pdf + +Beckers, K., McCabe, K. (2019) GEOPHIRES v2.0: updated geothermal techno-economic simulation tool. Geotherm Energy +7,5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40517-019-0119-6 + +Fercho, S., Norbeck, J., Dadi, S., Matson, G., Borell, J., McConville, E., Webb, S., Bowie, C., & Rhodes, G. (2025). +Update on the geology, temperature, fracturing, and resource potential at the Cape Geothermal Project informed by data +acquired from the drilling of additional horizontal EGS wells. Proceedings of the 50th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir +Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA. https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2025/Fercho.pdf + +Fervo Energy. (2025, March 31). Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and +Impacts. https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/ + +Fervo Energy. (2025, April 15). Fervo Energy Announces 31 MW Power Purchase Agreement with Shell +Energy. https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/ + +Fervo Energy. (2024, September 10). Fervo Energy’s Record-Breaking Production Results Showcase Rapid Scale Up of +Enhanced +Geothermal. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal + +Gradl, C. (2018). Review of Recent Unconventional Completion Innovations and their Applicability to EGS Wells. Stanford +Geothermal Workshop. +https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2018/Gradl.pdf + +Horne, R., Genter, A., McClure, M. et al. (2025) Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation. Nat. Rev. +Clean Technol. 1, 148–160. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-024-00019-9 + +Jacobs, Trent. (2024, September 16). Fervo and FORGE Report Breakthrough Test Results, Signaling More Progress for +Enhanced +Geothermal. https://jpt.spe.org/fervo-and-forge-report-breakthrough-test-results-signaling-more-progress-for-enhanced-geothermal + +Ko, S., Ghassemi, A., & Uddenberg, M. (2023). Selection and Testing of Proppants for EGS. +Proceedings, 48th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California. +https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2023/Ko.pdf + +Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, +Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal + +Matson, M. (2024, September 11). Fervo Energy Technology Day 2024: Entering "the Geothermal Decade" with Next-Generation +Geothermal +Energy. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ + +McClure, M. (2024, September 12). Digesting the Bonkers, Incredible, Off-the-Charts, Spectacular Results from the Fervo +and FORGE Enhanced Geothermal Projects. ResFrac Corporation Blog. +https://www.resfrac.com/blog/digesting-the-bonkers-incredible-off-the-charts-spectacular-results-from-the-fervo-and-forge-enhanced-geothermal-projects + +NREL. (2024). Annual Technology Baseline: Recent Public Geothermal Power Purchase Agreement +Pricing. https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal + +Norbeck, J., Gradl, C., Latimer, T. (2024, September 10). Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System Technology Leads to +Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C + +Norbeck J., Latimer T. (2023). Commercial-Scale Demonstration of a First-of-a-Kind Enhanced Geothermal +System. https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B + +Quantum Proppant Technologies. (2020). Well Completion Technology. World +Oil. https://quantumprot.com/uploads/images/2b8583e8ce8038681a19d5ad1314e204.pdf + +Shiozawa, S., & McClure, M. (2014). EGS Designs with Horizontal Wells, Multiple Stages, and Proppant. ResFrac. +https://www.resfrac.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Shiozawa.pdf + +US DOE. (2021). Combined Heat and Power Technology Fact Sheet Series: Waste Heat to +Power. https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf + +Yusifov, M., & Enriquez, N. (2025, July). From Core to Code: Powering the Al Revolution with Geothermal Energy. +Project InnerSpace. https://projectinnerspace.org/resources/Powering-the-AI-Revolution.pdf diff --git a/docs/GEOPHIRES-Examples.md b/docs/GEOPHIRES-Examples.md index 02ac82876..e3b33bba8 100644 --- a/docs/GEOPHIRES-Examples.md +++ b/docs/GEOPHIRES-Examples.md @@ -7,4 +7,4 @@ or in the [web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires) under ## Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station -See [Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station](Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html). +See documentation: [Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station](Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html). diff --git a/docs/Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.md b/docs/Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.md index 816de8c76..54dc6b61e 100644 --- a/docs/Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.md +++ b/docs/Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -# GEOPHIRES Monte Carlo User Guide +# Monte Carlo User Guide ## Example Setup diff --git a/docs/SAM-Economic-Models.md b/docs/SAM-Economic-Models.md index b71470518..37439764f 100644 --- a/docs/SAM-Economic-Models.md +++ b/docs/SAM-Economic-Models.md @@ -123,7 +123,7 @@ Output Parameters: [Web interface link](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) -See [Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station](Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html). +Documentation: [Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station](Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html). ### SAM Single Owner PPA diff --git a/docs/_images/fervo_project_cape-4-sensitivity-analysis-irr.png b/docs/_images/fervo_project_cape-4-sensitivity-analysis-irr.png new file mode 100644 index 000000000..01ddebb63 Binary files /dev/null and b/docs/_images/fervo_project_cape-4-sensitivity-analysis-irr.png differ diff --git a/docs/_images/fervo_project_cape-4-sensitivity-analysis-irr.svg b/docs/_images/fervo_project_cape-4-sensitivity-analysis-irr.svg new file mode 100644 index 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+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/docs/index.rst b/docs/index.rst index b145a94c3..5461acb6a 100644 --- a/docs/index.rst +++ b/docs/index.rst @@ -8,8 +8,8 @@ Contents overview Theoretical-Basis-for-GEOPHIRES GEOPHIRES-Examples - Monte-Carlo-User-Guide SAM-Economic-Models + Monte-Carlo-User-Guide How-to-extend-GEOPHIRES-X .. toctree:: diff --git a/docs/templates/layout.html b/docs/templates/layout.html index 681f7aefb..c80461711 100644 --- a/docs/templates/layout.html +++ b/docs/templates/layout.html @@ -25,5 +25,28 @@ /* Hide goofy-looking "Fork me on GitHub" badge */ display: none; } + + /* Show interactive SVG on screen, hide print version */ + @media screen { + .sensitivity-chart-interactive { + display: block; + width: 100%; + } + .sensitivity-chart-print { + display: none; + } + } + + /* Show print version when printing, hide interactive SVG */ + @media print { + .sensitivity-chart-interactive { + display: none; + } + .sensitivity-chart-print { + display: block; + width: 100%; + max-width: 100%; + } + } {% endblock %} diff --git a/docs/watch_docs.py b/docs/watch_docs.py index 130ef909e..473dfd23c 100755 --- a/docs/watch_docs.py +++ b/docs/watch_docs.py @@ -1,5 +1,9 @@ #!python +# Automatically rebuilds docs locally when changes are detected. +# Usage, from the project root: +# ./docs/watch_docs.py + import os import subprocess import time @@ -58,6 +62,7 @@ def main(): if current_states != last_states: print('\n[Change Detected] Running docs build...') + time.sleep(1) try: # Run tox from the project root so it finds tox.ini @@ -67,6 +72,7 @@ def main(): except Exception as e: print(f'An error occurred: {e}') + print(f"\nDocs rebuild complete at {time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}.") print(f"\nWaiting for further changes in '{watch_dir}'...") # Update state to the current state diff --git a/tests/.gitignore b/tests/.gitignore index dd02483df..83ec4ce7b 100644 --- a/tests/.gitignore +++ b/tests/.gitignore @@ -1,3 +1,5 @@ +*.env + HIP.out *.log MC_*Result.json diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out index e85f55118..3d1435e26 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out @@ -4,20 +4,20 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- - GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.22 - Simulation Date: 2025-12-15 - Simulation Time: 09:15 - Calculation Time: 1.777 sec + GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.24 + Simulation Date: 2026-01-02 + Simulation Time: 09:35 + Calculation Time: 1.778 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** End-Use Option: Electricity - Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW - Electricity breakeven price: 8.11 cents/kWh - Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD - Number of production wells: 59 - Number of injection wells: 59 - Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec + Average Net Electricity Production: 532.42 MW + Electricity breakeven price: 8.16 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 2850.14 MUSD + Number of production wells: 50 + Number of injection wells: 50 + Flowrate per production well: 120.0 kg/sec Well depth: 2.6 kilometer Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km @@ -26,31 +26,31 @@ Simulation Metadata Economic Model = SAM Single Owner PPA Real Discount Rate: 12.00 % - Nominal Discount Rate: 14.58 % - WACC: 8.30 % + Nominal Discount Rate: 15.02 % + WACC: 9.49 % Project lifetime: 30 yr Capacity factor: 90.0 % - Project NPV: 483.35 MUSD - After-tax IRR: 27.55 % - Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.45 - Project MOIC: 4.20 - Project Payback Period: 2.33 yr - Estimated Jobs Created: 1300 + Project NPV: 192.68 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 21.29 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.28 + Project MOIC: 4.08 + Project Payback Period: 6.18 yr + Estimated Jobs Created: 1245 ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** - Number of Production Wells: 59 - Number of Injection Wells: 59 + Number of Production Wells: 50 + Number of Injection Wells: 50 Well depth: 2.6 kilometer Water loss rate: 15.0 % Pump efficiency: 80.0 % Injection temperature: 56.6 degC Production Wellbore heat transmission calculated with Ramey's model - Average production well temperature drop: 0.6 degC - Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec - Injection well casing ID: 9.625 in - Production well casing ID: 9.625 in - Number of times redrilling: 3 + Average production well temperature drop: 0.4 degC + Flowrate per production well: 120.0 kg/sec + Injection well casing ID: 8.535 in + Production well casing ID: 8.535 in + Number of times redrilling: 2 Power plant type: Supercritical ORC @@ -65,14 +65,18 @@ Simulation Metadata Reservoir Model = Multiple Parallel Fractures Model (Gringarten) Bottom-hole temperature: 201.72 degC - Fracture model = Square - Well separation: fracture height: 165.30 meter - Fracture area: 27324.09 m**2 + Fracture model = Circular fracture with known diameter + Well separation: fracture diameter: 186.16 meter + Fracture area: 27218.40 m**2 Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input - Number of fractures: 12036 - Fracture separation: 18.00 meter - Reservoir volume: 5919217617 m**3 - Reservoir impedance: 0.0016 GPa.s/m**3 + Number of fractures: 20000 + Fracture separation: 7.32 meter + Reservoir volume: 3981853090 m**3 + Reservoir hydrostatic pressure: 24497.62 kPa + Plant outlet pressure: 6894.76 kPa + Production wellhead pressure: 2240.80 kPa + Productivity Index: 2.49 kg/sec/bar + Injectivity Index: 3.02 kg/sec/bar Reservoir density: 2800.00 kg/m**3 Reservoir thermal conductivity: 3.05 W/m/K Reservoir heat capacity: 790.00 J/kg/K @@ -80,59 +84,57 @@ Simulation Metadata ***RESERVOIR SIMULATION RESULTS*** - Maximum Production Temperature: 199.6 degC - Average Production Temperature: 199.0 degC - Minimum Production Temperature: 195.4 degC - Initial Production Temperature: 198.2 degC - Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 3761.51 MW + Maximum Production Temperature: 200.0 degC + Average Production Temperature: 199.6 degC + Minimum Production Temperature: 195.3 degC + Initial Production Temperature: 198.7 degC + Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 3590.78 MW Production Wellbore Heat Transmission Model = Ramey Model - Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 0.6 degC - Total Average Pressure Drop: 8521.8 kPa - Average Injection Well Pressure Drop: 600.9 kPa - Average Reservoir Pressure Drop: 10344.9 kPa - Average Production Well Pressure Drop: 504.2 kPa - Average Buoyancy Pressure Drop: -2928.2 kPa + Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 0.4 degC + Average Injection Well Pump Pressure Drop: -1721.2 kPa + Average Production Well Pump Pressure Drop: 6107.4 kPa ***CAPITAL COSTS (M$)*** - Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD - Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD - Stimulation costs: 542.80 MUSD - Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD - Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD - Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD + Drilling and completion costs: 445.95 MUSD + Drilling and completion costs per well: 4.46 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 483.00 MUSD + Surface power plant costs: 1437.02 MUSD + Field gathering system costs: 42.55 MUSD + Total surface equipment costs: 1479.57 MUSD Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD - Overnight Capital Cost: 2601.04 MUSD - Inflation costs during construction: 59.82 MUSD - Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD + Overnight Capital Cost: 2438.52 MUSD + Interest during construction: 113.75 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 297.87 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2850.14 MUSD ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** - Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr - Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr - Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr - Redrilling costs: 101.05 MUSD/yr - Total operating and maintenance costs: 157.54 MUSD/yr + Wellfield maintenance costs: 5.83 MUSD/yr + Power plant maintenance costs: 24.40 MUSD/yr + Water costs: 23.63 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 61.93 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 115.79 MUSD/yr ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** Initial geofluid availability: 0.19 MW/(kg/s) - Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 614.60 MW - Average Total Electricity Generation: 610.21 MW - Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 583.15 MW - Initial Total Electricity Generation: 604.35 MW - Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 537.14 MW - Average Net Electricity Generation: 532.53 MW - Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 504.44 MW - Initial Net Electricity Generation: 526.63 MW - Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 4810.97 GWh - Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 4198.60 GWh - Initial pumping power/net installed power: 14.76 % - Average Pumping Power: 77.67 MW - Heat to Power Conversion Efficiency: 14.16 % + Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 587.21 MW + Average Total Electricity Generation: 584.46 MW + Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 553.59 MW + Initial Total Electricity Generation: 577.93 MW + Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 535.25 MW + Average Net Electricity Generation: 532.42 MW + Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 500.77 MW + Initial Net Electricity Generation: 525.81 MW + Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 4608.01 GWh + Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 4197.67 GWh + Initial pumping power/net installed power: 9.91 % + Average Pumping Power: 52.05 MW + Heat to Power Conversion Efficiency: 14.83 % ************************************************************ * HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * @@ -140,36 +142,36 @@ Simulation Metadata YEAR THERMAL GEOFLUID PUMP NET FIRST LAW DRAWDOWN TEMPERATURE POWER POWER EFFICIENCY (degC) (MW) (MW) (%) - 1 1.0000 198.22 77.7286 526.6263 14.0769 - 2 1.0051 199.24 77.6662 534.3539 14.1818 - 3 1.0061 199.42 77.6547 535.7721 14.2009 - 4 1.0065 199.52 77.6489 536.5044 14.2108 - 5 1.0068 199.57 77.6474 536.9145 14.2163 - 6 1.0067 199.55 77.6626 536.7091 14.2133 - 7 1.0054 199.29 77.7347 534.6638 14.1850 - 8 1.0012 198.47 77.9449 528.2545 14.0960 - 9 0.9919 196.61 78.4108 513.7990 13.8924 - 10 1.0040 199.02 77.6265 532.7400 14.1607 - 11 1.0057 199.35 77.6184 535.2509 14.1944 - 12 1.0063 199.48 77.6077 536.2282 14.2076 - 13 1.0067 199.55 77.5951 536.8041 14.2155 - 14 1.0068 199.58 77.5874 537.0016 14.2182 - 15 1.0063 199.46 77.6101 536.1193 14.2061 - 16 1.0038 198.97 77.7249 532.3053 14.1535 - 17 0.9974 197.70 78.0349 522.3915 14.0153 - 18 1.0000 198.22 77.5160 526.8389 14.0826 - 19 1.0051 199.24 77.5030 534.5170 14.1861 - 20 1.0061 199.42 77.4920 535.9348 14.2052 - 21 1.0065 199.52 77.4831 536.6702 14.2152 - 22 1.0068 199.57 77.4784 537.0835 14.2208 - 23 1.0067 199.55 77.4911 536.8806 14.2179 - 24 1.0054 199.29 77.5620 534.8365 14.1896 - 25 1.0012 198.47 77.7729 528.4265 14.1006 - 26 0.9919 196.61 78.2420 513.9678 13.8970 - 27 1.0040 199.02 77.4599 532.9067 14.1651 - 28 1.0057 199.35 77.4589 535.4103 14.1987 - 29 1.0063 199.48 77.4584 536.3775 14.2116 - 30 1.0067 199.55 77.4587 536.9405 14.2191 + 1 1.0000 198.72 52.1180 525.8137 14.7370 + 2 1.0043 199.56 52.0843 531.9471 14.8204 + 3 1.0051 199.72 52.0781 533.0868 14.8358 + 4 1.0055 199.80 52.0748 533.6796 14.8438 + 5 1.0057 199.86 52.0727 534.0717 14.8491 + 6 1.0060 199.90 52.0710 534.3634 14.8530 + 7 1.0061 199.93 52.0700 534.5822 14.8560 + 8 1.0062 199.96 52.0687 534.7812 14.8587 + 9 1.0063 199.97 52.0692 534.8739 14.8599 + 10 1.0064 199.98 52.0698 534.9490 14.8609 + 11 1.0032 199.36 52.1720 530.3604 14.7977 + 12 0.9881 196.36 52.6497 508.4438 14.4903 + 13 1.0039 199.49 52.0553 531.4516 14.8141 + 14 1.0049 199.69 52.0388 532.9207 14.8341 + 15 1.0054 199.79 52.0162 533.6158 14.8438 + 16 1.0057 199.85 51.9945 534.0645 14.8501 + 17 1.0059 199.89 51.9788 534.3891 14.8547 + 18 1.0061 199.92 51.9706 534.6256 14.8580 + 19 1.0062 199.95 51.9662 534.8671 14.8613 + 20 1.0062 199.96 51.9685 534.8893 14.8616 + 21 1.0065 200.00 51.9639 535.2353 14.8663 + 22 1.0046 199.62 52.0288 532.4144 14.8275 + 23 0.9942 197.56 52.3634 517.2800 14.6168 + 24 1.0033 199.38 51.9662 530.7385 14.8058 + 25 1.0047 199.66 51.9663 532.7488 14.8329 + 26 1.0053 199.77 51.9664 533.5290 14.8433 + 27 1.0056 199.83 51.9666 533.9996 14.8497 + 28 1.0059 199.88 51.9667 534.3307 14.8541 + 29 1.0060 199.91 51.9669 534.5796 14.8574 + 30 1.0062 199.95 51.9663 534.8184 14.8606 ******************************************************************* @@ -178,273 +180,273 @@ Simulation Metadata YEAR ELECTRICITY HEAT RESERVOIR PERCENTAGE OF PROVIDED EXTRACTED HEAT CONTENT TOTAL HEAT MINED (GWh/year) (GWh/year) (10^15 J) (%) - 1 4192.9 29636.9 1793.40 5.62 - 2 4219.2 29728.1 1686.38 11.25 - 3 4227.2 29755.6 1579.26 16.89 - 4 4231.6 29771.1 1472.08 22.53 - 5 4232.9 29775.6 1364.89 28.17 - 6 4225.2 29749.9 1257.79 33.80 - 7 4194.0 29644.4 1151.07 39.42 - 8 4114.4 29374.5 1045.32 44.99 - 9 4101.4 29325.8 939.75 50.54 - 10 4212.2 29702.5 832.82 56.17 - 11 4224.2 29744.1 725.74 61.80 - 12 4230.1 29764.4 618.59 67.44 - 13 4233.3 29775.3 511.40 73.09 - 14 4231.4 29768.8 404.23 78.73 - 15 4214.5 29711.6 297.27 84.36 - 16 4162.9 29536.5 190.94 89.95 - 17 4055.6 29171.2 85.92 95.48 - 18 4194.3 29636.9 -20.77 101.09 - 19 4220.5 29728.1 -127.79 106.73 - 20 4228.5 29755.6 -234.91 112.36 - 21 4233.0 29771.1 -342.09 118.00 - 22 4234.2 29775.6 -449.28 123.65 - 23 4226.6 29749.9 -556.38 129.28 - 24 4195.3 29644.4 -663.10 134.90 - 25 4115.7 29374.5 -768.85 140.46 - 26 4102.7 29325.8 -874.42 146.02 - 27 4213.5 29702.5 -981.35 151.65 - 28 4225.4 29744.1 -1088.43 157.28 - 29 4231.2 29764.4 -1195.58 162.92 - 30 4234.3 29775.2 -1302.77 168.56 + 1 4178.0 28242.9 1176.52 7.95 + 2 4199.0 28315.7 1074.58 15.93 + 3 4205.4 28337.9 972.56 23.91 + 4 4209.2 28351.0 870.50 31.90 + 5 4211.8 28360.2 768.40 39.88 + 6 4213.8 28367.1 666.28 47.87 + 7 4215.6 28373.4 564.14 55.86 + 8 4216.2 28375.6 461.98 63.86 + 9 4218.3 28382.8 359.81 71.85 + 10 4204.6 28336.0 257.80 79.83 + 11 4115.4 28030.8 156.89 87.73 + 12 4130.7 28079.8 55.80 95.63 + 13 4196.7 28306.9 -46.11 103.61 + 14 4204.5 28333.6 -148.11 111.59 + 15 4208.9 28348.2 -250.16 119.57 + 16 4211.9 28358.2 -352.25 127.56 + 17 4214.1 28365.6 -454.37 135.55 + 18 4216.0 28371.8 -556.51 143.54 + 19 4216.9 28375.2 -658.66 151.53 + 20 4218.7 28381.2 -760.83 159.52 + 21 4212.6 28360.6 -862.93 167.51 + 22 4152.3 28154.8 -964.28 175.44 + 23 4095.9 27958.6 -1064.94 183.32 + 24 4194.0 28295.2 -1166.80 191.29 + 25 4203.6 28328.6 -1268.78 199.26 + 26 4208.3 28345.2 -1370.82 207.25 + 27 4211.4 28356.0 -1472.91 215.23 + 28 4213.7 28363.9 -1575.02 223.22 + 29 4215.5 28370.2 -1677.15 231.21 + 30 4216.9 28375.0 -1779.30 239.20 *************************** * SAM CASH FLOW PROFILE * *************************** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 Year 25 Year 26 Year 27 Year 28 Year 29 Year 30 +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Year -4 Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 Year 25 Year 26 Year 27 Year 28 Year 29 Year 30 CONSTRUCTION -Capital expenditure schedule [construction] (%) 100.0 -Overnight capital expenditure [construction] ($) -2,601,042,401 +Capital expenditure schedule [construction] (%) 1.40 2.70 13.70 27.40 54.80 +Overnight capital expenditure [construction] ($) -34,139,280 -65,840,041 -334,077,245 -668,154,489 -1,336,308,978 plus: -Inflation cost [construction] ($) -59,823,975 +Inflation cost [construction] ($) -921,761 -3,603,360 -27,797,459 -75,136,153 -190,410,000 equals: -Nominal capital expenditure [construction] ($) -2,660,866,376 +Nominal capital expenditure [construction] ($) -35,061,041 -69,443,401 -361,874,704 -743,290,642 -1,526,718,979 -Issuance of equity [construction] ($) 1,064,346,550 -Issuance of debt [construction] ($) 1,596,519,826 -Debt balance [construction] ($) 1,596,519,826 -Debt interest payment [construction] ($) 0 +Issuance of equity [construction] ($) 14,024,416 27,777,360 144,749,882 297,316,257 610,687,591 +Issuance of debt [construction] ($) 21,036,625 41,666,040 217,124,822 445,974,385 916,031,387 +Debt balance [construction] ($) 21,036,625 64,806,327 288,411,783 763,227,346 1,755,581,468 +Debt interest payment [construction] ($) 0 2,103,662 6,480,633 28,841,178 76,322,735 -Installed cost [construction] ($) -2,660,866,376 -After-tax net cash flow [construction] ($) -1,064,346,550 +Installed cost [construction] ($) -35,061,041 -71,547,063 -368,355,337 -772,131,820 -1,603,041,713 +After-tax net cash flow [construction] ($) -14,024,416 -27,777,360 -144,749,882 -297,316,257 -610,687,591 ENERGY -Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 -Electricity from grid (kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,178,664,123 4,199,662,810 4,206,059,884 4,209,843,014 4,212,493,870 4,214,477,278 4,216,286,269 4,216,916,955 4,219,017,462 4,205,269,084 4,116,044,105 4,131,355,778 4,197,396,364 4,205,202,009 4,209,580,437 4,212,580,031 4,214,800,202 4,216,646,051 4,217,622,938 4,219,358,830 4,213,291,881 4,153,007,471 4,096,534,552 4,194,677,619 4,204,258,174 4,209,000,232 4,212,102,563 4,214,388,332 4,216,183,035 4,217,570,704 +Electricity from grid (kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 4,178,664,123 4,199,662,810 4,206,059,884 4,209,843,014 4,212,493,870 4,214,477,278 4,216,286,269 4,216,916,955 4,219,017,462 4,205,269,084 4,116,044,105 4,131,355,778 4,197,396,364 4,205,202,009 4,209,580,437 4,212,580,031 4,214,800,202 4,216,646,051 4,217,622,938 4,219,358,830 4,213,291,881 4,153,007,471 4,096,534,552 4,194,677,619 4,204,258,174 4,209,000,232 4,212,102,563 4,214,388,332 4,216,183,035 4,217,570,704 REVENUE -PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9.50 9.56 9.61 9.67 9.73 9.79 9.84 9.90 9.96 10.01 10.07 10.13 10.18 10.24 10.30 10.36 10.41 10.47 10.53 10.58 10.64 10.70 10.75 10.81 10.87 10.93 10.98 11.04 11.10 -PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 -Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330,433,188 -Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,800,309,896 +PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9.50 9.56 9.61 9.67 9.73 9.79 9.84 9.90 9.96 10.01 10.07 10.13 10.18 10.24 10.30 10.36 10.41 10.47 10.53 10.58 10.64 10.70 10.75 10.81 10.87 10.93 10.98 11.04 11.10 +PPA revenue ($) 0 396,973,092 398,967,967 401,973,143 404,734,307 407,390,282 409,984,350 412,563,611 415,028,967 417,640,539 418,676,590 412,139,496 416,027,527 425,070,330 428,257,773 431,103,133 433,811,492 436,442,561 439,037,187 441,542,945 444,129,710 445,892,680 441,879,995 438,206,301 451,095,631 454,522,351 457,434,145 460,172,205 462,824,127 465,424,445 467,981,645 +Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,425,068,487 +Total revenue ($) 0 396,973,092 398,967,967 401,973,143 404,734,307 407,390,282 409,984,350 412,563,611 415,028,967 417,640,539 418,676,590 412,139,496 416,027,527 425,070,330 428,257,773 431,103,133 433,811,492 436,442,561 439,037,187 441,542,945 444,129,710 445,892,680 441,879,995 438,206,301 451,095,631 454,522,351 457,434,145 460,172,205 462,824,127 465,424,445 1,893,050,133 -Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 2,850,136,974 OPERATING EXPENSES -O&M fixed expense ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 -O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total operating expenses ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 115,794,728 +O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Property tax expense ($) 0 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 6,270,301 +Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 122,065,030 -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 274,908,062 276,902,937 279,908,114 282,669,278 285,325,253 287,919,320 290,498,582 292,963,937 295,575,509 296,611,560 290,074,467 293,962,497 303,005,300 306,192,743 309,038,103 311,746,462 314,377,531 316,972,157 319,477,916 322,064,681 323,827,650 319,814,965 316,141,272 329,030,602 332,457,322 335,369,116 338,107,175 340,759,097 343,359,416 1,770,985,103 OPERATING ACTIVITIES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +EBITDA ($) 0 274,908,062 276,902,937 279,908,114 282,669,278 285,325,253 287,919,320 290,498,582 292,963,937 295,575,509 296,611,560 290,074,467 293,962,497 303,005,300 306,192,743 309,038,103 311,746,462 314,377,531 316,972,157 319,477,916 322,064,681 323,827,650 319,814,965 316,141,272 329,030,602 332,457,322 335,369,116 338,107,175 340,759,097 343,359,416 1,770,985,103 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 plus PBI if not available for debt service: -Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 140,446,517 139,206,735 137,867,770 136,421,688 134,859,920 133,173,210 131,351,563 129,384,184 127,259,415 124,964,665 122,486,334 119,809,737 116,919,012 113,797,030 110,425,288 106,783,808 102,851,009 98,603,586 94,016,369 89,062,175 83,711,645 77,933,073 71,692,215 64,952,089 57,672,752 49,811,069 41,320,451 32,150,583 22,247,126 11,551,392 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 134,461,545 137,696,202 142,040,343 146,247,590 150,465,333 154,746,111 159,147,019 163,579,753 168,316,094 171,646,896 167,588,133 174,152,760 186,086,288 192,395,713 198,612,815 204,962,654 211,526,523 218,368,572 225,461,547 233,002,506 240,116,005 241,881,892 244,449,056 264,078,513 274,784,569 285,558,047 296,786,725 308,608,514 321,112,290 1,759,433,711 INVESTING ACTIVITIES -Total installed cost ($) -2,660,866,376 -Debt closing costs ($) 0 -Debt up-front fee ($) 0 +Total installed cost ($) -2,850,136,974 +Debt closing costs ($) 0 +Debt up-front fee ($) 0 minus: -Total IBI income ($) 0 -Total CBI income ($) 0 +Total IBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 equals: -Purchase of property ($) -2,660,866,376 +Purchase of property ($) -2,850,136,974 plus: -Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease receivables ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease receivables ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,850,136,974 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FINANCING ACTIVITIES -Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 -Size of debt ($) 1,596,519,826 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,094,555,507 +Size of debt ($) 1,755,581,468 minus: -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 15,497,278 16,737,061 18,076,026 19,522,108 21,083,876 22,770,586 24,592,233 26,559,612 28,684,381 30,979,131 33,457,462 36,134,059 39,024,784 42,146,766 45,518,507 49,159,988 53,092,787 57,340,210 61,927,427 66,881,621 72,232,151 78,010,723 84,251,581 90,991,707 98,271,044 106,132,727 114,623,345 123,793,213 133,696,670 144,392,404 equals: -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,850,136,974 -15,497,278 -16,737,061 -18,076,026 -19,522,108 -21,083,876 -22,770,586 -24,592,233 -26,559,612 -28,684,381 -30,979,131 -33,457,462 -36,134,059 -39,024,784 -42,146,766 -45,518,507 -49,159,988 -53,092,787 -57,340,210 -61,927,427 -66,881,621 -72,232,151 -78,010,723 -84,251,581 -90,991,707 -98,271,044 -106,132,727 -114,623,345 -123,793,213 -133,696,670 -144,392,404 PROJECT RETURNS Pre-tax Cash Flow: -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 134,461,545 137,696,202 142,040,343 146,247,590 150,465,333 154,746,111 159,147,019 163,579,753 168,316,094 171,646,896 167,588,133 174,152,760 186,086,288 192,395,713 198,612,815 204,962,654 211,526,523 218,368,572 225,461,547 233,002,506 240,116,005 241,881,892 244,449,056 264,078,513 274,784,569 285,558,047 296,786,725 308,608,514 321,112,290 1,759,433,711 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,850,136,974 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,850,136,974 -15,497,278 -16,737,061 -18,076,026 -19,522,108 -21,083,876 -22,770,586 -24,592,233 -26,559,612 -28,684,381 -30,979,131 -33,457,462 -36,134,059 -39,024,784 -42,146,766 -45,518,507 -49,159,988 -53,092,787 -57,340,210 -61,927,427 -66,881,621 -72,232,151 -78,010,723 -84,251,581 -90,991,707 -98,271,044 -106,132,727 -114,623,345 -123,793,213 -133,696,670 -144,392,404 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 118,964,266 120,959,142 123,964,318 126,725,482 129,381,457 131,975,524 134,554,786 137,020,141 139,631,713 140,667,765 134,130,671 138,018,701 147,061,504 150,248,947 153,094,307 155,802,666 158,433,736 161,028,361 163,534,120 166,120,885 167,883,854 163,871,169 160,197,476 173,086,806 176,513,526 179,425,320 182,163,380 184,815,301 187,415,620 1,615,041,307 Pre-tax Returns: -Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,094,555,507 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 118,964,266 120,959,142 123,964,318 126,725,482 129,381,457 131,975,524 134,554,786 137,020,141 139,631,713 140,667,765 134,130,671 138,018,701 147,061,504 150,248,947 153,094,307 155,802,666 158,433,736 161,028,361 163,534,120 166,120,885 167,883,854 163,871,169 160,197,476 173,086,806 176,513,526 179,425,320 182,163,380 184,815,301 187,415,620 1,615,041,307 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,094,555,507 118,964,266 120,959,142 123,964,318 126,725,482 129,381,457 131,975,524 134,554,786 137,020,141 139,631,713 140,667,765 134,130,671 138,018,701 147,061,504 150,248,947 153,094,307 155,802,666 158,433,736 161,028,361 163,534,120 166,120,885 167,883,854 163,871,169 160,197,476 173,086,806 176,513,526 179,425,320 182,163,380 184,815,301 187,415,620 1,615,041,307 After-tax Returns: -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 -State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 -Total after-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 - -After-tax net cash flow ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 -After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.17 -3.40 5.89 12.37 16.79 19.80 21.87 23.28 24.29 25.09 25.68 26.13 26.46 26.72 26.91 27.06 27.16 27.25 27.32 27.37 27.41 27.44 27.46 27.47 27.49 27.49 27.50 27.51 27.51 27.55 -After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,064,346,550 -276,360,558 -184,114,290 -102,283,638 -29,860,348 34,099,889 90,287,587 138,980,351 179,981,359 215,856,998 249,560,495 279,450,773 305,861,334 329,155,135 349,636,000 367,491,872 382,754,754 395,369,209 407,375,324 418,077,007 427,517,570 434,965,626 440,760,290 445,824,812 450,177,652 453,787,012 456,922,551 459,896,566 462,523,206 464,831,958 483,348,931 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,094,555,507 118,964,266 120,959,142 123,964,318 126,725,482 129,381,457 131,975,524 134,554,786 137,020,141 139,631,713 140,667,765 134,130,671 138,018,701 147,061,504 150,248,947 153,094,307 155,802,666 158,433,736 161,028,361 163,534,120 166,120,885 167,883,854 163,871,169 160,197,476 173,086,806 176,513,526 179,425,320 182,163,380 184,815,301 187,415,620 1,615,041,307 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 855,041,092 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -14,812,111 -3,320,448 -4,191,209 -5,034,531 -5,879,956 -6,738,017 -7,620,157 -8,508,676 -9,458,052 -10,125,695 -9,312,136 -10,627,983 -13,019,998 -14,284,691 -15,530,878 -16,803,672 -18,119,366 -19,490,821 -20,912,572 -22,424,120 -35,990,019 -48,484,016 -48,998,591 -52,933,218 -55,079,193 -57,238,683 -59,489,415 -61,859,034 -64,365,353 -352,669,690 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -3,362,274 -753,725 -951,383 -1,142,813 -1,334,720 -1,529,496 -1,729,737 -1,931,426 -2,146,930 -2,298,481 -2,113,808 -2,412,498 -2,955,474 -3,242,553 -3,525,431 -3,814,348 -4,113,004 -4,424,318 -4,747,048 -5,090,162 -8,169,552 -11,005,626 -11,122,432 -12,015,572 -12,502,698 -12,992,891 -13,503,796 -14,041,687 -14,610,609 -80,054,234 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,094,555,507 955,830,974 116,884,969 118,821,725 120,548,138 122,166,780 123,708,012 125,204,892 126,580,039 128,026,731 128,243,589 122,704,727 124,978,221 131,086,032 132,721,703 134,037,998 135,184,646 136,201,365 137,113,223 137,874,500 138,606,604 123,724,283 104,381,527 100,076,452 108,138,016 108,931,635 109,193,746 109,170,169 108,914,580 108,439,658 1,182,317,383 + +After-tax net cash flow ($) -14,024,416 -27,777,360 -144,749,882 -297,316,257 -610,687,591 955,830,974 116,884,969 118,821,725 120,548,138 122,166,780 123,708,012 125,204,892 126,580,039 128,026,731 128,243,589 122,704,727 124,978,221 131,086,032 132,721,703 134,037,998 135,184,646 136,201,365 137,113,223 137,874,500 138,606,604 123,724,283 104,381,527 100,076,452 108,138,016 108,931,635 109,193,746 109,170,169 108,914,580 108,439,658 1,182,317,383 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN -7.97 -1.13 4.40 8.57 11.64 13.90 15.58 16.84 17.80 18.54 19.08 19.51 19.86 20.14 20.36 20.54 20.69 20.81 20.90 20.98 21.03 21.07 21.10 21.13 21.15 21.17 21.18 21.20 21.21 21.29 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -14,024,416 -38,173,602 -147,579,639 -342,947,561 -691,818,851 -217,097,496 -166,628,127 -122,023,842 -82,682,173 -48,019,909 -17,504,923 9,345,316 32,944,861 53,696,414 71,768,036 86,800,643 100,111,894 112,250,044 122,934,429 132,315,385 140,540,804 147,745,633 154,051,330 159,563,838 164,381,770 168,120,666 170,863,020 173,148,846 175,296,189 177,176,755 178,815,622 180,240,119 181,475,654 182,545,124 192,682,516 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE -Annual costs ($) -1,064,346,550 504,481,845 -279,761,764 -280,941,051 -282,053,576 -283,104,409 -283,946,673 -284,197,129 -283,198,821 -283,951,600 -287,996,326 -289,476,868 -290,828,818 -292,141,214 -293,348,448 -294,183,709 -294,099,170 -292,511,863 -297,725,623 -299,899,742 -301,618,330 -318,291,569 -334,925,356 -336,358,826 -337,173,733 -336,651,121 -338,088,802 -343,176,493 -345,487,456 -347,698,476 627,560,501 -PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 -Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 +Annual costs ($) -1,094,555,507 558,857,882 -282,082,998 -283,151,418 -284,186,169 -285,223,502 -286,276,338 -287,358,719 -288,448,928 -289,613,807 -290,433,001 -289,434,769 -291,049,306 -293,984,298 -295,536,069 -297,065,134 -298,626,846 -300,241,196 -301,923,964 -303,668,446 -305,523,107 -322,168,396 -337,498,467 -338,129,849 -342,957,615 -345,590,716 -348,240,399 -351,002,036 -353,909,546 -356,984,788 714,335,738 +PPA revenue ($) 0 396,973,092 398,967,967 401,973,143 404,734,307 407,390,282 409,984,350 412,563,611 415,028,967 417,640,539 418,676,590 412,139,496 416,027,527 425,070,330 428,257,773 431,103,133 433,811,492 436,442,561 439,037,187 441,542,945 444,129,710 445,892,680 441,879,995 438,206,301 451,095,631 454,522,351 457,434,145 460,172,205 462,824,127 465,424,445 467,981,645 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,178,664,123 4,199,662,810 4,206,059,884 4,209,843,014 4,212,493,870 4,214,477,278 4,216,286,269 4,216,916,955 4,219,017,462 4,205,269,084 4,116,044,105 4,131,355,778 4,197,396,364 4,205,202,009 4,209,580,437 4,212,580,031 4,214,800,202 4,216,646,051 4,217,622,938 4,219,358,830 4,213,291,881 4,153,007,471 4,096,534,552 4,194,677,619 4,204,258,174 4,209,000,232 4,212,102,563 4,214,388,332 4,216,183,035 4,217,570,704 -Present value of annual costs ($) 2,298,728,919 -Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.11 +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,245,260,737 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 27,530,118,626 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.16 -Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,782,077,849 -Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 +Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,698,995,461 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 27,530,118,626 +LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.80 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State taxable IBI income ($) 0 -State taxable CBI income ($) 0 +EBITDA ($) 0 274,908,062 276,902,937 279,908,114 282,669,278 285,325,253 287,919,320 290,498,582 292,963,937 295,575,509 296,611,560 290,074,467 293,962,497 303,005,300 306,192,743 309,038,103 311,746,462 314,377,531 316,972,157 319,477,916 322,064,681 323,827,650 319,814,965 316,141,272 329,030,602 332,457,322 335,369,116 338,107,175 340,759,097 343,359,416 1,770,985,103 +State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State taxable IBI income ($) 0 +State taxable CBI income ($) 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 140,446,517 139,206,735 137,867,770 136,421,688 134,859,920 133,173,210 131,351,563 129,384,184 127,259,415 124,964,665 122,486,334 119,809,737 116,919,012 113,797,030 110,425,288 106,783,808 102,851,009 98,603,586 94,016,369 89,062,175 83,711,645 77,933,073 71,692,215 64,952,089 57,672,752 49,811,069 41,320,451 32,150,583 22,247,126 11,551,392 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 60,565,411 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 60,565,411 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -State taxable income ($) 0 94,868,122 42,036,219 46,481,325 50,674,785 54,635,710 57,810,470 58,754,517 54,991,577 57,829,041 73,074,901 78,655,531 83,751,463 88,698,300 93,248,749 96,397,111 96,078,457 90,095,394 109,747,710 117,942,657 124,420,562 187,267,297 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +State taxable income ($) 0 73,896,134 16,565,381 20,909,522 25,116,768 29,334,512 33,615,289 38,016,198 42,448,932 47,185,273 50,516,074 46,457,311 53,021,939 64,955,466 71,264,892 77,481,993 83,831,833 90,395,701 97,237,750 104,330,725 111,871,685 179,550,594 241,881,892 244,449,056 264,078,513 274,784,569 285,558,047 296,786,725 308,608,514 321,112,290 1,759,433,711 -State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -3,362,274 -753,725 -951,383 -1,142,813 -1,334,720 -1,529,496 -1,729,737 -1,931,426 -2,146,930 -2,298,481 -2,113,808 -2,412,498 -2,955,474 -3,242,553 -3,525,431 -3,814,348 -4,113,004 -4,424,318 -4,747,048 -5,090,162 -8,169,552 -11,005,626 -11,122,432 -12,015,572 -12,502,698 -12,992,891 -13,503,796 -14,041,687 -14,610,609 -80,054,234 PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 -State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 -Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 -Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +EBITDA ($) 0 274,908,062 276,902,937 279,908,114 282,669,278 285,325,253 287,919,320 290,498,582 292,963,937 295,575,509 296,611,560 290,074,467 293,962,497 303,005,300 306,192,743 309,038,103 311,746,462 314,377,531 316,972,157 319,477,916 322,064,681 323,827,650 319,814,965 316,141,272 329,030,602 332,457,322 335,369,116 338,107,175 340,759,097 343,359,416 1,770,985,103 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -3,362,274 -753,725 -951,383 -1,142,813 -1,334,720 -1,529,496 -1,729,737 -1,931,426 -2,146,930 -2,298,481 -2,113,808 -2,412,498 -2,955,474 -3,242,553 -3,525,431 -3,814,348 -4,113,004 -4,424,318 -4,747,048 -5,090,162 -8,169,552 -11,005,626 -11,122,432 -12,015,572 -12,502,698 -12,992,891 -13,503,796 -14,041,687 -14,610,609 -80,054,234 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 140,446,517 139,206,735 137,867,770 136,421,688 134,859,920 133,173,210 131,351,563 129,384,184 127,259,415 124,964,665 122,486,334 119,809,737 116,919,012 113,797,030 110,425,288 106,783,808 102,851,009 98,603,586 94,016,369 89,062,175 83,711,645 77,933,073 71,692,215 64,952,089 57,672,752 49,811,069 41,320,451 32,150,583 22,247,126 11,551,392 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 60,565,411 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 121,130,821 60,565,411 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Federal taxable income ($) 0 88,227,353 39,093,684 43,227,632 47,127,550 50,811,211 53,763,737 54,641,701 51,142,167 53,781,008 67,959,658 73,149,644 77,888,861 82,489,419 86,721,337 89,649,313 89,352,965 83,788,717 102,065,370 109,686,671 115,711,122 174,158,587 232,467,751 237,492,733 240,349,361 238,517,361 243,557,102 261,391,828 269,492,830 277,243,486 1,522,294,430 +Federal taxable income ($) 0 70,533,860 15,811,656 19,958,139 23,973,955 27,999,791 32,085,794 36,286,461 40,517,505 45,038,343 48,217,593 44,343,504 50,609,441 61,999,993 68,022,339 73,956,562 80,017,485 86,282,697 92,813,433 99,583,677 106,781,523 171,381,042 230,876,266 233,326,624 252,062,941 262,281,872 272,565,156 283,282,929 294,566,827 306,501,681 1,679,379,477 -Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 +Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -14,812,111 -3,320,448 -4,191,209 -5,034,531 -5,879,956 -6,738,017 -7,620,157 -8,508,676 -9,458,052 -10,125,695 -9,312,136 -10,627,983 -13,019,998 -14,284,691 -15,530,878 -16,803,672 -18,119,366 -19,490,821 -20,912,572 -22,424,120 -35,990,019 -48,484,016 -48,998,591 -52,933,218 -55,079,193 -57,238,683 -59,489,415 -61,859,034 -64,365,353 -352,669,690 CASH INCENTIVES -Federal IBI income ($) 0 -State IBI income ($) 0 -Utility IBI income ($) 0 -Other IBI income ($) 0 -Total IBI income ($) 0 - -Federal CBI income ($) 0 -State CBI income ($) 0 -Utility CBI income ($) 0 -Other CBI income ($) 0 -Total CBI income ($) 0 - -Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal IBI income ($) 0 +State IBI income ($) 0 +Utility IBI income ($) 0 +Other IBI income ($) 0 +Total IBI income ($) 0 + +Federal CBI income ($) 0 +State CBI income ($) 0 +Utility CBI income ($) 0 +Other CBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 + +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TAX CREDITS -Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 855,041,092 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 855,041,092 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEBT REPAYMENT -Debt balance ($) 1,596,519,826 1,574,859,723 1,551,986,655 1,527,832,695 1,502,326,113 1,475,391,163 1,446,947,855 1,416,911,722 1,385,193,566 1,351,699,193 1,316,329,135 1,278,978,354 1,239,535,929 1,197,884,729 1,153,901,061 1,107,454,308 1,058,406,536 1,006,612,089 951,917,154 894,159,302 833,167,010 768,759,150 700,744,449 628,920,926 553,075,285 472,982,288 388,404,084 299,089,500 204,773,299 105,175,391 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 -Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 +Debt balance ($) 1,755,581,468 1,740,084,189 1,723,347,129 1,705,271,103 1,685,748,995 1,664,665,119 1,641,894,533 1,617,302,300 1,590,742,688 1,562,058,307 1,531,079,175 1,497,621,713 1,461,487,655 1,422,462,871 1,380,316,105 1,334,797,597 1,285,637,609 1,232,544,822 1,175,204,612 1,113,277,185 1,046,395,564 974,163,413 896,152,691 811,901,110 720,909,403 622,638,359 516,505,632 401,882,287 278,089,074 144,392,404 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 140,446,517 139,206,735 137,867,770 136,421,688 134,859,920 133,173,210 131,351,563 129,384,184 127,259,415 124,964,665 122,486,334 119,809,737 116,919,012 113,797,030 110,425,288 106,783,808 102,851,009 98,603,586 94,016,369 89,062,175 83,711,645 77,933,073 71,692,215 64,952,089 57,672,752 49,811,069 41,320,451 32,150,583 22,247,126 11,551,392 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 15,497,278 16,737,061 18,076,026 19,522,108 21,083,876 22,770,586 24,592,233 26,559,612 28,684,381 30,979,131 33,457,462 36,134,059 39,024,784 42,146,766 45,518,507 49,159,988 53,092,787 57,340,210 61,927,427 66,881,621 72,232,151 78,010,723 84,251,581 90,991,707 98,271,044 106,132,727 114,623,345 123,793,213 133,696,670 144,392,404 +Debt total payment ($) 0 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 274,908,062 276,902,937 279,908,114 282,669,278 285,325,253 287,919,320 290,498,582 292,963,937 295,575,509 296,611,560 290,074,467 293,962,497 303,005,300 306,192,743 309,038,103 311,746,462 314,377,531 316,972,157 319,477,916 322,064,681 323,827,650 319,814,965 316,141,272 329,030,602 332,457,322 335,369,116 338,107,175 340,759,097 343,359,416 1,770,985,103 minus: -Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 -DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.23 2.24 2.36 2.39 2.42 2.44 2.46 2.47 2.44 2.36 2.51 2.56 2.59 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.59 2.60 2.73 2.76 2.79 14.79 +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 274,908,062 276,902,937 279,908,114 282,669,278 285,325,253 287,919,320 290,498,582 292,963,937 295,575,509 296,611,560 290,074,467 293,962,497 303,005,300 306,192,743 309,038,103 311,746,462 314,377,531 316,972,157 319,477,916 322,064,681 323,827,650 319,814,965 316,141,272 329,030,602 332,457,322 335,369,116 338,107,175 340,759,097 343,359,416 1,770,985,103 +Debt total payment ($) 0 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 155,943,796 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 1.76 1.78 1.79 1.81 1.83 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.90 1.90 1.86 1.89 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.0 2.02 2.03 2.05 2.07 2.08 2.05 2.03 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.19 2.20 11.36 RESERVES -Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves working capital disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves working capital balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves debt service funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves debt service disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves debt service balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves receivables disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves receivables balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 1 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 1 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 2 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 2 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 3 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 3 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves total reserves balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Interest on reserves (%/year) 1.75 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- +Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves debt service funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves total reserves balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest on reserves (%/year) 1.75 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index d2c1fe956..faf475a8f 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -1,6 +1,4 @@ -# Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station -# 500 MWe EGS Case Study Modeled on Fervo Cape Station after Fervo's April 2025 upsizing announcement: -# https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/ +# Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station Phase II # See documentation: https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html # *** ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL PARAMETERS *** @@ -9,29 +7,30 @@ Economic Model, 5, -- SAM Single Owner PPA Starting Electricity Sale Price, 0.095, -- Upper end of ranges given in https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal Electricity Escalation Rate Per Year, 0.00057, -- calibrated to reach 10 cents/kWh at project year 11 -Ending Electricity Sale Price, 0.15, -- Note that this value does not directly determine price at the end of the project life, but rather as a cap as the maximum price to which the starting price can escalate. +Ending Electricity Sale Price, 1, -- Note that this value does not directly determine price at the end of the project life, but rather as a cap as the maximum price to which the starting price can escalate. Electricity Escalation Start Year, 1 Discount Rate, 0.12 Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .6, -- Based on fraction of CAPEX with $1 billion in sponsor equity per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ -Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .056 +Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .08 +Inflated Bond Interest Rate During Construction, 0.1, -- Higher interest rate during construction to account for increased risk of default. -Inflation Rate, .023, -- US inflation as of April 2025 -Construction Years, 1, -- Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) +Inflation Rate, .027, -- US inflation as of December 2025 +Construction Years, 5, 2023–2028 +Construction CAPEX Schedule, 0.014,0.027,0.137,0.274,0.548 -Combined Income Tax Rate, .28 Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0.3 -Property Tax Rate, 0 +Combined Income Tax Rate, .2555, -- Federal Corporate Income Tax Rate of 21% plus Utah Corporate Franchise and Income Tax Rate of 4.55%. (Note: This input uses a simple summation of statutory rates; the effective combined rate calculated in the model may differ due to standard federal-state tax interactions.) +Property Tax Rate, 0.0022, -- Utah Inland Port Authority (UIPA) tax differential incentive Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation, 1900, -- https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) -Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well +Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.9, -- NREL Geothermal 2024b ATB https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024b/geothermal -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. -Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Baseline stimulation cost includes indirect costs +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4 +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4 Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ @@ -41,8 +40,8 @@ End-Use Option, 1, -- Electricity Power Plant Type, 2, -- Supercritical ORC Plant Lifetime, 30, -- Per https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/ -Reservoir Model, 1, -- Multiple Parallel Fractures -Reservoir Depth, 8500 feet, -- https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf +Reservoir Model, 1, -- Multiple Parallel Fractures (Gringarten) +Reservoir Depth, 2.5908, -- 8500 feet per https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf Gradient 1, 74, -- temperature at 8500 ft: 200 degC (https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf); 228.89 degC @ 9824 ft (https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C) Number of Segments, 1 @@ -51,25 +50,29 @@ Reservoir Density, 2800, -- per https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B: phyllite + quar Reservoir Heat Capacity, 790 Reservoir Thermal Conductivity, 3.05 Reservoir Porosity, 0.0118 -Reservoir Impedance, 0.001565 + +Productivity Index, 2.494, -- [kg/s/bar] NREL ATB conservative scenario (https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal) +Injectivity Index, 3.015, -- [kg/s/bar] NREL ATB conservative scenario (https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal) Reservoir Volume Option, 1, -- FRAC_NUM_SEP: Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input -Number of Fractures, 12036, -- 102 fractures per well -Fracture Separation, 18, -- Per https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/, lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. -Fracture Shape, 3, -- Square -Fracture Height, 165.3, -- Based on total fracture surface area of 30 million ft^2 per well https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2025/Fercho.pdf -Number of Doublets, 59 - -Production Flow Rate per Well, 107, -- Maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station per https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal -Production Well Diameter, 9.625, -- Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" -Injection Well Diameter, 9.625 +Number of Fractures per Stimulated Well, 200, -- 25 stages with 8 clusters per stage +Fracture Separation, 7.315 +Fracture Shape, 2, -- CIRCULAR_DIAMETER +Fracture Height, 186.16, -- Approximates ellipsoidal fracture with 228 meter height and 152 meter width +Number of Doublets, 50 + +Production Flow Rate per Well, 120, -- Maximum Fervo-tested flow rate +Production Well Diameter, 8.535, -- Inner diameter for 9-5/8" casing size +Injection Well Diameter, 8.535, -- Inner diameter for 9-5/8" casing size + Ramey Production Wellbore Model, 1 Injection Temperature, 53.6, -- GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature Injection Wellbore Temperature Gain, 3 -Ambient Temperature, 10 degC -Surface Temperature, 10 degC -Maximum Drawdown, 0.0153, -- Drawdown value that prevents minimum net electricity generation from going below 500 MWe +Ambient Temperature, 10, -- degC +Surface Temperature, 10, -- degC + +Maximum Drawdown, 0.02, -- Drawdown value that prevents minimum net electricity generation from going below 500 MWe Water Loss Fraction, 0.15, -- Estimated to be between 10 and 20% Utilization Factor, .9 @@ -79,7 +82,7 @@ Circulation Pump Efficiency, 0.80 Well Geometry Configuration, 4, -- L Number of Multilateral Sections, 0, -- This parameter is set to 0 because, for this case study, the cost of horizontal drilling (which would otherwise account for approximately 118 multilateral sections) is included within the 'vertical drilling cost.' This approach allows us to more directly convey the overall well drilling and completion cost, which is under $4 million. -Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4700 feet, -- Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System Technology Leads to Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements. p. 3. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C +Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4800 feet, -- Fervo presentation at Payne Institute, Dec 2, 2025 Multilaterals Cased, True # *** SIMULATION PARAMETERS *** diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11 b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11 new file mode 100644 index 000000000..6f181b04b --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11 @@ -0,0 +1,88 @@ +# [v2025-08-11] Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station +# 500 MWe EGS Case Study Modeled on Fervo Cape Station after Fervo's April 2025 upsizing announcement: +# https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/ +# See documentation: https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html + +# *** ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL PARAMETERS *** +# ************************************* +Economic Model, 5, -- SAM Single Owner PPA + +Starting Electricity Sale Price, 0.095, -- Upper end of ranges given in https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal +Electricity Escalation Rate Per Year, 0.00057, -- calibrated to reach 10 cents/kWh at project year 11 +Ending Electricity Sale Price, 0.15, -- Note that this value does not directly determine price at the end of the project life, but rather as a cap as the maximum price to which the starting price can escalate. +Electricity Escalation Start Year, 1 + +Discount Rate, 0.12 +Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .6, -- Based on fraction of CAPEX with $1 billion in sponsor equity per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ +Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .056 + +Inflation Rate, .023, -- US inflation as of April 2025 +Construction Years, 1, -- Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) + +Combined Income Tax Rate, .28 +Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0.3 +Property Tax Rate, 0 + +Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation, 1900, -- https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf +Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects + +Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) +Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well + +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. +Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Baseline stimulation cost includes indirect costs + +Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ + +# *** SURFACE & SUBSURFACE TECHNICAL PARAMETERS *** +# ************************************************* +End-Use Option, 1, -- Electricity +Power Plant Type, 2, -- Supercritical ORC +Plant Lifetime, 30, -- Per https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/ + +Reservoir Model, 1, -- Multiple Parallel Fractures +Reservoir Depth, 8500 feet, -- https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf + +Gradient 1, 74, -- temperature at 8500 ft: 200 degC (https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf); 228.89 degC @ 9824 ft (https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C) +Number of Segments, 1 + +Reservoir Density, 2800, -- per https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B: phyllite + quartzite + diorite + granodiorite +Reservoir Heat Capacity, 790 +Reservoir Thermal Conductivity, 3.05 +Reservoir Porosity, 0.0118 +Reservoir Impedance, 0.001565 + +Reservoir Volume Option, 1, -- FRAC_NUM_SEP: Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input +Number of Fractures, 12036, -- 102 fractures per well +Fracture Separation, 18, -- Per https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/, lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. +Fracture Shape, 3, -- Square +Fracture Height, 165.3, -- Based on total fracture surface area of 30 million ft^2 per well https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2025/Fercho.pdf +Number of Doublets, 59 + +Production Flow Rate per Well, 107, -- Maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station per https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal +Production Well Diameter, 9.625, -- Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" +Injection Well Diameter, 9.625 +Ramey Production Wellbore Model, 1 +Injection Temperature, 53.6, -- GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature +Injection Wellbore Temperature Gain, 3 +Ambient Temperature, 10 degC +Surface Temperature, 10 degC + +Maximum Drawdown, 0.0153, -- Drawdown value that prevents minimum net electricity generation from going below 500 MWe +Water Loss Fraction, 0.15, -- Estimated to be between 10 and 20% + +Utilization Factor, .9 +Plant Outlet Pressure, 1000 psi, -- https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C +Production Wellhead Pressure, 325 psi, -- https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C +Circulation Pump Efficiency, 0.80 + +Well Geometry Configuration, 4, -- L +Number of Multilateral Sections, 0, -- This parameter is set to 0 because, for this case study, the cost of horizontal drilling (which would otherwise account for approximately 118 multilateral sections) is included within the 'vertical drilling cost.' This approach allows us to more directly convey the overall well drilling and completion cost, which is under $4 million. +Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4700 feet, -- Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System Technology Leads to Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements. p. 3. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C +Multilaterals Cased, True + +# *** SIMULATION PARAMETERS *** +# ***************************** +Maximum Temperature, 500 +Time steps per year, 12 diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.out new file mode 100644 index 000000000..e85f55118 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4_v2025-08-11.out @@ -0,0 +1,450 @@ + ***************** + ***CASE REPORT*** + ***************** + +Simulation Metadata +---------------------- + GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.22 + Simulation Date: 2025-12-15 + Simulation Time: 09:15 + Calculation Time: 1.777 sec + + ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** + + End-Use Option: Electricity + Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW + Electricity breakeven price: 8.11 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD + Number of production wells: 59 + Number of injection wells: 59 + Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec + Well depth: 2.6 kilometer + Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km + + + ***ECONOMIC PARAMETERS*** + + Economic Model = SAM Single Owner PPA + Real Discount Rate: 12.00 % + Nominal Discount Rate: 14.58 % + WACC: 8.30 % + Project lifetime: 30 yr + Capacity factor: 90.0 % + Project NPV: 483.35 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 27.55 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.45 + Project MOIC: 4.20 + Project Payback Period: 2.33 yr + Estimated Jobs Created: 1300 + + ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** + + Number of Production Wells: 59 + Number of Injection Wells: 59 + Well depth: 2.6 kilometer + Water loss rate: 15.0 % + Pump efficiency: 80.0 % + Injection temperature: 56.6 degC + Production Wellbore heat transmission calculated with Ramey's model + Average production well temperature drop: 0.6 degC + Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec + Injection well casing ID: 9.625 in + Production well casing ID: 9.625 in + Number of times redrilling: 3 + Power plant type: Supercritical ORC + + + ***RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS*** + + Maximum reservoir temperature: 500.0 degC + Number of segments: 1 + Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km + + + ***RESERVOIR PARAMETERS*** + + Reservoir Model = Multiple Parallel Fractures Model (Gringarten) + Bottom-hole temperature: 201.72 degC + Fracture model = Square + Well separation: fracture height: 165.30 meter + Fracture area: 27324.09 m**2 + Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input + Number of fractures: 12036 + Fracture separation: 18.00 meter + Reservoir volume: 5919217617 m**3 + Reservoir impedance: 0.0016 GPa.s/m**3 + Reservoir density: 2800.00 kg/m**3 + Reservoir thermal conductivity: 3.05 W/m/K + Reservoir heat capacity: 790.00 J/kg/K + + + ***RESERVOIR SIMULATION RESULTS*** + + Maximum Production Temperature: 199.6 degC + Average Production Temperature: 199.0 degC + Minimum Production Temperature: 195.4 degC + Initial Production Temperature: 198.2 degC + Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 3761.51 MW + Production Wellbore Heat Transmission Model = Ramey Model + Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 0.6 degC + Total Average Pressure Drop: 8521.8 kPa + Average Injection Well Pressure Drop: 600.9 kPa + Average Reservoir Pressure Drop: 10344.9 kPa + Average Production Well Pressure Drop: 504.2 kPa + Average Buoyancy Pressure Drop: -2928.2 kPa + + + ***CAPITAL COSTS (M$)*** + + Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD + Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 542.80 MUSD + Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD + Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD + Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD + Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD + Overnight Capital Cost: 2601.04 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 59.82 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD + + + ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** + + Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr + Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr + Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 101.05 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 157.54 MUSD/yr + + + ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** + + Initial geofluid availability: 0.19 MW/(kg/s) + Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 614.60 MW + Average Total Electricity Generation: 610.21 MW + Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 583.15 MW + Initial Total Electricity Generation: 604.35 MW + Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 537.14 MW + Average Net Electricity Generation: 532.53 MW + Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 504.44 MW + Initial Net Electricity Generation: 526.63 MW + Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 4810.97 GWh + Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 4198.60 GWh + Initial pumping power/net installed power: 14.76 % + Average Pumping Power: 77.67 MW + Heat to Power Conversion Efficiency: 14.16 % + + ************************************************************ + * HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * + ************************************************************ + YEAR THERMAL GEOFLUID PUMP NET FIRST LAW + DRAWDOWN TEMPERATURE POWER POWER EFFICIENCY + (degC) (MW) (MW) (%) + 1 1.0000 198.22 77.7286 526.6263 14.0769 + 2 1.0051 199.24 77.6662 534.3539 14.1818 + 3 1.0061 199.42 77.6547 535.7721 14.2009 + 4 1.0065 199.52 77.6489 536.5044 14.2108 + 5 1.0068 199.57 77.6474 536.9145 14.2163 + 6 1.0067 199.55 77.6626 536.7091 14.2133 + 7 1.0054 199.29 77.7347 534.6638 14.1850 + 8 1.0012 198.47 77.9449 528.2545 14.0960 + 9 0.9919 196.61 78.4108 513.7990 13.8924 + 10 1.0040 199.02 77.6265 532.7400 14.1607 + 11 1.0057 199.35 77.6184 535.2509 14.1944 + 12 1.0063 199.48 77.6077 536.2282 14.2076 + 13 1.0067 199.55 77.5951 536.8041 14.2155 + 14 1.0068 199.58 77.5874 537.0016 14.2182 + 15 1.0063 199.46 77.6101 536.1193 14.2061 + 16 1.0038 198.97 77.7249 532.3053 14.1535 + 17 0.9974 197.70 78.0349 522.3915 14.0153 + 18 1.0000 198.22 77.5160 526.8389 14.0826 + 19 1.0051 199.24 77.5030 534.5170 14.1861 + 20 1.0061 199.42 77.4920 535.9348 14.2052 + 21 1.0065 199.52 77.4831 536.6702 14.2152 + 22 1.0068 199.57 77.4784 537.0835 14.2208 + 23 1.0067 199.55 77.4911 536.8806 14.2179 + 24 1.0054 199.29 77.5620 534.8365 14.1896 + 25 1.0012 198.47 77.7729 528.4265 14.1006 + 26 0.9919 196.61 78.2420 513.9678 13.8970 + 27 1.0040 199.02 77.4599 532.9067 14.1651 + 28 1.0057 199.35 77.4589 535.4103 14.1987 + 29 1.0063 199.48 77.4584 536.3775 14.2116 + 30 1.0067 199.55 77.4587 536.9405 14.2191 + + + ******************************************************************* + * ANNUAL HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * + ******************************************************************* + YEAR ELECTRICITY HEAT RESERVOIR PERCENTAGE OF + PROVIDED EXTRACTED HEAT CONTENT TOTAL HEAT MINED + (GWh/year) (GWh/year) (10^15 J) (%) + 1 4192.9 29636.9 1793.40 5.62 + 2 4219.2 29728.1 1686.38 11.25 + 3 4227.2 29755.6 1579.26 16.89 + 4 4231.6 29771.1 1472.08 22.53 + 5 4232.9 29775.6 1364.89 28.17 + 6 4225.2 29749.9 1257.79 33.80 + 7 4194.0 29644.4 1151.07 39.42 + 8 4114.4 29374.5 1045.32 44.99 + 9 4101.4 29325.8 939.75 50.54 + 10 4212.2 29702.5 832.82 56.17 + 11 4224.2 29744.1 725.74 61.80 + 12 4230.1 29764.4 618.59 67.44 + 13 4233.3 29775.3 511.40 73.09 + 14 4231.4 29768.8 404.23 78.73 + 15 4214.5 29711.6 297.27 84.36 + 16 4162.9 29536.5 190.94 89.95 + 17 4055.6 29171.2 85.92 95.48 + 18 4194.3 29636.9 -20.77 101.09 + 19 4220.5 29728.1 -127.79 106.73 + 20 4228.5 29755.6 -234.91 112.36 + 21 4233.0 29771.1 -342.09 118.00 + 22 4234.2 29775.6 -449.28 123.65 + 23 4226.6 29749.9 -556.38 129.28 + 24 4195.3 29644.4 -663.10 134.90 + 25 4115.7 29374.5 -768.85 140.46 + 26 4102.7 29325.8 -874.42 146.02 + 27 4213.5 29702.5 -981.35 151.65 + 28 4225.4 29744.1 -1088.43 157.28 + 29 4231.2 29764.4 -1195.58 162.92 + 30 4234.3 29775.2 -1302.77 168.56 + + *************************** + * SAM CASH FLOW PROFILE * + *************************** +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 Year 25 Year 26 Year 27 Year 28 Year 29 Year 30 +CONSTRUCTION +Capital expenditure schedule [construction] (%) 100.0 +Overnight capital expenditure [construction] ($) -2,601,042,401 +plus: +Inflation cost [construction] ($) -59,823,975 +equals: +Nominal capital expenditure [construction] ($) -2,660,866,376 + +Issuance of equity [construction] ($) 1,064,346,550 +Issuance of debt [construction] ($) 1,596,519,826 +Debt balance [construction] ($) 1,596,519,826 +Debt interest payment [construction] ($) 0 + +Installed cost [construction] ($) -2,660,866,376 +After-tax net cash flow [construction] ($) -1,064,346,550 + +ENERGY +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 +Electricity from grid (kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 + +REVENUE +PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9.50 9.56 9.61 9.67 9.73 9.79 9.84 9.90 9.96 10.01 10.07 10.13 10.18 10.24 10.30 10.36 10.41 10.47 10.53 10.58 10.64 10.70 10.75 10.81 10.87 10.93 10.98 11.04 11.10 +PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 +Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330,433,188 +Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,800,309,896 + +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 + +OPERATING EXPENSES +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 +O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 + +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 + +OPERATING ACTIVITIES +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +plus PBI if not available for debt service: +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 + +INVESTING ACTIVITIES +Total installed cost ($) -2,660,866,376 +Debt closing costs ($) 0 +Debt up-front fee ($) 0 +minus: +Total IBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 +equals: +Purchase of property ($) -2,660,866,376 +plus: +Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease receivables ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +FINANCING ACTIVITIES +Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 +Size of debt ($) 1,596,519,826 +minus: +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 +equals: +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 + +PROJECT RETURNS +Pre-tax Cash Flow: +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 + +Pre-tax Returns: +Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 + +After-tax Returns: +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 + +After-tax net cash flow ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.17 -3.40 5.89 12.37 16.79 19.80 21.87 23.28 24.29 25.09 25.68 26.13 26.46 26.72 26.91 27.06 27.16 27.25 27.32 27.37 27.41 27.44 27.46 27.47 27.49 27.49 27.50 27.51 27.51 27.55 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,064,346,550 -276,360,558 -184,114,290 -102,283,638 -29,860,348 34,099,889 90,287,587 138,980,351 179,981,359 215,856,998 249,560,495 279,450,773 305,861,334 329,155,135 349,636,000 367,491,872 382,754,754 395,369,209 407,375,324 418,077,007 427,517,570 434,965,626 440,760,290 445,824,812 450,177,652 453,787,012 456,922,551 459,896,566 462,523,206 464,831,958 483,348,931 + +AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE +Annual costs ($) -1,064,346,550 504,481,845 -279,761,764 -280,941,051 -282,053,576 -283,104,409 -283,946,673 -284,197,129 -283,198,821 -283,951,600 -287,996,326 -289,476,868 -290,828,818 -292,141,214 -293,348,448 -294,183,709 -294,099,170 -292,511,863 -297,725,623 -299,899,742 -301,618,330 -318,291,569 -334,925,356 -336,358,826 -337,173,733 -336,651,121 -338,088,802 -343,176,493 -345,487,456 -347,698,476 627,560,501 +PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 + +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,298,728,919 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.11 + +Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,782,077,849 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 +LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 + +PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State taxable IBI income ($) 0 +State taxable CBI income ($) 0 +minus: +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +State taxable income ($) 0 94,868,122 42,036,219 46,481,325 50,674,785 54,635,710 57,810,470 58,754,517 54,991,577 57,829,041 73,074,901 78,655,531 83,751,463 88,698,300 93,248,749 96,397,111 96,078,457 90,095,394 109,747,710 117,942,657 124,420,562 187,267,297 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 + +State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 + +PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +minus: +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +Federal taxable income ($) 0 88,227,353 39,093,684 43,227,632 47,127,550 50,811,211 53,763,737 54,641,701 51,142,167 53,781,008 67,959,658 73,149,644 77,888,861 82,489,419 86,721,337 89,649,313 89,352,965 83,788,717 102,065,370 109,686,671 115,711,122 174,158,587 232,467,751 237,492,733 240,349,361 238,517,361 243,557,102 261,391,828 269,492,830 277,243,486 1,522,294,430 + +Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 + +CASH INCENTIVES +Federal IBI income ($) 0 +State IBI income ($) 0 +Utility IBI income ($) 0 +Other IBI income ($) 0 +Total IBI income ($) 0 + +Federal CBI income ($) 0 +State CBI income ($) 0 +Utility CBI income ($) 0 +Other CBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 + +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +TAX CREDITS +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +DEBT REPAYMENT +Debt balance ($) 1,596,519,826 1,574,859,723 1,551,986,655 1,527,832,695 1,502,326,113 1,475,391,163 1,446,947,855 1,416,911,722 1,385,193,566 1,351,699,193 1,316,329,135 1,278,978,354 1,239,535,929 1,197,884,729 1,153,901,061 1,107,454,308 1,058,406,536 1,006,612,089 951,917,154 894,159,302 833,167,010 768,759,150 700,744,449 628,920,926 553,075,285 472,982,288 388,404,084 299,089,500 204,773,299 105,175,391 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 +Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 + +DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +minus: +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.23 2.24 2.36 2.39 2.42 2.44 2.46 2.47 2.44 2.36 2.51 2.56 2.59 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.59 2.60 2.73 2.76 2.79 14.79 + +RESERVES +Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves debt service funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves total reserves balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest on reserves (%/year) 1.75 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.out new file mode 100644 index 000000000..3acaa3049 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.out @@ -0,0 +1,452 @@ + ***************** + ***CASE REPORT*** + ***************** + +Simulation Metadata +---------------------- + GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.24 + Simulation Date: 2026-01-02 + Simulation Time: 09:35 + Calculation Time: 1.755 sec + + ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** + + End-Use Option: Electricity + Average Net Electricity Production: 106.48 MW + Electricity breakeven price: 8.32 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 558.52 MUSD + Number of production wells: 10 + Number of injection wells: 10 + Flowrate per production well: 120.0 kg/sec + Well depth: 2.6 kilometer + Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km + + + ***ECONOMIC PARAMETERS*** + + Economic Model = SAM Single Owner PPA + Real Discount Rate: 12.00 % + Nominal Discount Rate: 15.02 % + WACC: 9.58 % + Project lifetime: 30 yr + Capacity factor: 90.0 % + Project NPV: 56.02 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 23.68 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.32 + Project MOIC: 3.93 + Project Payback Period: 4.46 yr + Estimated Jobs Created: 249 + + ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** + + Number of Production Wells: 10 + Number of Injection Wells: 10 + Well depth: 2.6 kilometer + Water loss rate: 15.0 % + Pump efficiency: 80.0 % + Injection temperature: 56.6 degC + Production Wellbore heat transmission calculated with Ramey's model + Average production well temperature drop: 0.4 degC + Flowrate per production well: 120.0 kg/sec + Injection well casing ID: 8.535 in + Production well casing ID: 8.535 in + Number of times redrilling: 2 + Power plant type: Supercritical ORC + + + ***RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS*** + + Maximum reservoir temperature: 500.0 degC + Number of segments: 1 + Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km + + + ***RESERVOIR PARAMETERS*** + + Reservoir Model = Multiple Parallel Fractures Model (Gringarten) + Bottom-hole temperature: 201.72 degC + Fracture model = Circular fracture with known diameter + Well separation: fracture diameter: 186.16 meter + Fracture area: 27218.40 m**2 + Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input + Number of fractures: 4000 + Fracture separation: 7.32 meter + Reservoir volume: 796211336 m**3 + Reservoir hydrostatic pressure: 24497.62 kPa + Plant outlet pressure: 6894.76 kPa + Production wellhead pressure: 2240.80 kPa + Productivity Index: 2.49 kg/sec/bar + Injectivity Index: 3.02 kg/sec/bar + Reservoir density: 2800.00 kg/m**3 + Reservoir thermal conductivity: 3.05 W/m/K + Reservoir heat capacity: 790.00 J/kg/K + + + ***RESERVOIR SIMULATION RESULTS*** + + Maximum Production Temperature: 200.0 degC + Average Production Temperature: 199.6 degC + Minimum Production Temperature: 195.3 degC + Initial Production Temperature: 198.7 degC + Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 718.16 MW + Production Wellbore Heat Transmission Model = Ramey Model + Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 0.4 degC + Average Injection Well Pump Pressure Drop: -1721.2 kPa + Average Production Well Pump Pressure Drop: 6107.4 kPa + + + ***CAPITAL COSTS (M$)*** + + Drilling and completion costs: 89.19 MUSD + Drilling and completion costs per well: 4.46 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 96.60 MUSD + Surface power plant costs: 287.40 MUSD + Field gathering system costs: 8.51 MUSD + Total surface equipment costs: 295.91 MUSD + Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD + Overnight Capital Cost: 511.70 MUSD + Interest during construction: 7.67 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 39.15 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 558.52 MUSD + + + ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** + + Wellfield maintenance costs: 1.67 MUSD/yr + Power plant maintenance costs: 6.38 MUSD/yr + Water costs: 4.73 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 12.39 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 25.15 MUSD/yr + + + ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** + + Initial geofluid availability: 0.19 MW/(kg/s) + Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 117.44 MW + Average Total Electricity Generation: 116.89 MW + Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 110.72 MW + Initial Total Electricity Generation: 115.59 MW + Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 107.05 MW + Average Net Electricity Generation: 106.48 MW + Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 100.15 MW + Initial Net Electricity Generation: 105.16 MW + Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 921.60 GWh + Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 839.53 GWh + Initial pumping power/net installed power: 9.91 % + Average Pumping Power: 10.41 MW + Heat to Power Conversion Efficiency: 14.83 % + + ************************************************************ + * HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * + ************************************************************ + YEAR THERMAL GEOFLUID PUMP NET FIRST LAW + DRAWDOWN TEMPERATURE POWER POWER EFFICIENCY + (degC) (MW) (MW) (%) + 1 1.0000 198.72 10.4236 105.1627 14.7370 + 2 1.0043 199.56 10.4169 106.3894 14.8204 + 3 1.0051 199.72 10.4156 106.6174 14.8358 + 4 1.0055 199.80 10.4150 106.7359 14.8438 + 5 1.0057 199.86 10.4145 106.8143 14.8491 + 6 1.0060 199.90 10.4142 106.8727 14.8530 + 7 1.0061 199.93 10.4140 106.9164 14.8560 + 8 1.0062 199.96 10.4137 106.9562 14.8587 + 9 1.0063 199.97 10.4138 106.9748 14.8599 + 10 1.0064 199.98 10.4140 106.9898 14.8609 + 11 1.0032 199.36 10.4344 106.0721 14.7977 + 12 0.9881 196.36 10.5299 101.6888 14.4903 + 13 1.0039 199.49 10.4111 106.2903 14.8141 + 14 1.0049 199.69 10.4078 106.5841 14.8341 + 15 1.0054 199.79 10.4032 106.7232 14.8438 + 16 1.0057 199.85 10.3989 106.8129 14.8501 + 17 1.0059 199.89 10.3958 106.8778 14.8547 + 18 1.0061 199.92 10.3941 106.9251 14.8580 + 19 1.0062 199.95 10.3932 106.9734 14.8613 + 20 1.0062 199.96 10.3937 106.9779 14.8616 + 21 1.0065 200.00 10.3928 107.0471 14.8663 + 22 1.0046 199.62 10.4058 106.4829 14.8275 + 23 0.9942 197.56 10.4727 103.4560 14.6168 + 24 1.0033 199.38 10.3932 106.1477 14.8058 + 25 1.0047 199.66 10.3933 106.5498 14.8329 + 26 1.0053 199.77 10.3933 106.7058 14.8433 + 27 1.0056 199.83 10.3933 106.7999 14.8497 + 28 1.0059 199.88 10.3933 106.8661 14.8541 + 29 1.0060 199.91 10.3934 106.9159 14.8574 + 30 1.0062 199.95 10.3933 106.9637 14.8606 + + + ******************************************************************* + * ANNUAL HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * + ******************************************************************* + YEAR ELECTRICITY HEAT RESERVOIR PERCENTAGE OF + PROVIDED EXTRACTED HEAT CONTENT TOTAL HEAT MINED + (GWh/year) (GWh/year) (10^15 J) (%) + 1 835.6 5648.6 235.25 7.96 + 2 839.8 5663.1 214.86 15.93 + 3 841.1 5667.6 194.46 23.92 + 4 841.8 5670.2 174.05 31.90 + 5 842.4 5672.0 153.63 39.89 + 6 842.8 5673.4 133.20 47.88 + 7 843.1 5674.7 112.78 55.88 + 8 843.2 5675.1 92.35 63.87 + 9 843.7 5676.6 71.91 71.86 + 10 840.9 5667.2 51.51 79.85 + 11 823.1 5606.2 31.33 87.74 + 12 826.1 5616.0 11.11 95.65 + 13 839.3 5661.4 -9.27 103.63 + 14 840.9 5666.7 -29.67 111.61 + 15 841.8 5669.6 -50.08 119.60 + 16 842.4 5671.6 -70.50 127.58 + 17 842.8 5673.1 -90.92 135.57 + 18 843.2 5674.4 -111.35 143.57 + 19 843.4 5675.0 -131.78 151.56 + 20 843.7 5676.2 -152.22 159.56 + 21 842.5 5672.1 -172.64 167.55 + 22 830.5 5631.0 -192.91 175.48 + 23 819.2 5591.7 -213.04 183.35 + 24 838.8 5659.0 -233.41 191.32 + 25 840.7 5665.7 -253.81 199.30 + 26 841.7 5669.0 -274.22 207.29 + 27 842.3 5671.2 -294.63 215.28 + 28 842.7 5672.8 -315.05 223.27 + 29 843.1 5674.0 -335.48 231.26 + 30 843.4 5675.0 -355.91 239.25 + + *************************** + * SAM CASH FLOW PROFILE * + *************************** +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 Year 25 Year 26 Year 27 Year 28 Year 29 Year 30 +CONSTRUCTION +Capital expenditure schedule [construction] (%) 2.0 19.60 78.40 +Overnight capital expenditure [construction] ($) -10,248,721 -100,291,057 -401,164,228 +plus: +Inflation cost [construction] ($) -276,715 -5,488,829 -33,379,545 +equals: +Nominal capital expenditure [construction] ($) -10,525,437 -105,779,886 -434,543,773 + +Issuance of equity [construction] ($) 4,210,175 42,311,955 173,817,509 +Issuance of debt [construction] ($) 6,315,262 63,467,932 260,726,264 +Debt balance [construction] ($) 6,315,262 70,414,720 338,182,456 +Debt interest payment [construction] ($) 0 631,526 7,041,472 + +Installed cost [construction] ($) -10,525,437 -106,411,413 -441,585,245 +After-tax net cash flow [construction] ($) -4,210,175 -42,311,955 -173,817,509 + +ENERGY +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 835,732,825 839,932,562 841,211,977 841,968,603 842,498,774 842,895,456 843,257,254 843,383,391 843,803,492 841,053,817 823,208,821 826,271,156 839,479,273 841,040,402 841,916,087 842,516,006 842,960,040 843,329,210 843,524,588 843,871,766.0 842,658,376 830,601,494 819,306,910 838,935,524 840,851,635 841,800,046 842,420,513 842,877,666 843,236,607 843,514,141 +Electricity from grid (kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 835,732,825 839,932,562 841,211,977 841,968,603 842,498,774 842,895,456 843,257,254 843,383,391 843,803,492 841,053,817 823,208,821 826,271,156 839,479,273 841,040,402 841,916,087 842,516,006 842,960,040 843,329,210 843,524,588 843,871,766.0 842,658,376 830,601,494 819,306,910 838,935,524 840,851,635 841,800,046 842,420,513 842,877,666 843,236,607 843,514,141 + +REVENUE +PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9.50 9.56 9.61 9.67 9.73 9.79 9.84 9.90 9.96 10.01 10.07 10.13 10.18 10.24 10.30 10.36 10.41 10.47 10.53 10.58 10.64 10.70 10.75 10.81 10.87 10.93 10.98 11.04 11.10 +PPA revenue ($) 0 79,394,618 79,793,593 80,394,629 80,946,861 81,478,056 81,996,870 82,512,722 83,005,793 83,528,108 83,735,318 82,427,899 83,205,505 85,014,066 85,651,555 86,220,627 86,762,298 87,288,512 87,807,437 88,308,589 88,825,942 89,178,536 88,375,999 87,641,260 90,219,126 90,904,470 91,486,829 92,034,441 92,564,825 93,084,889 93,596,329 +Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 279,261,047 +Total revenue ($) 0 79,394,618 79,793,593 80,394,629 80,946,861 81,478,056 81,996,870 82,512,722 83,005,793 83,528,108 83,735,318 82,427,899 83,205,505 85,014,066 85,651,555 86,220,627 86,762,298 87,288,512 87,807,437 88,308,589 88,825,942 89,178,536 88,375,999 87,641,260 90,219,126 90,904,470 91,486,829 92,034,441 92,564,825 93,084,889 372,857,376 + +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 558,522,094 + +OPERATING EXPENSES +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 25,153,160 +O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Property tax expense ($) 0 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 1,228,749 +Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 26,381,909 + +EBITDA ($) 0 53,012,709 53,411,684 54,012,720 54,564,952 55,096,147 55,614,961 56,130,813 56,623,884 57,146,199 57,353,409 56,045,990 56,823,596 58,632,157 59,269,645 59,838,717 60,380,389 60,906,603 61,425,528 61,926,680 62,444,033 62,796,627 61,994,090 61,259,351 63,837,217 64,522,561 65,104,920 65,652,532 66,182,916 66,702,980 346,475,467 + +OPERATING ACTIVITIES +EBITDA ($) 0 53,012,709 53,411,684 54,012,720 54,564,952 55,096,147 55,614,961 56,130,813 56,623,884 57,146,199 57,353,409 56,045,990 56,823,596 58,632,157 59,269,645 59,838,717 60,380,389 60,906,603 61,425,528 61,926,680 62,444,033 62,796,627 61,994,090 61,259,351 63,837,217 64,522,561 65,104,920 65,652,532 66,182,916 66,702,980 346,475,467 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +plus PBI if not available for debt service: +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 27,054,596 26,815,774 26,557,845 26,279,283 25,978,435 25,653,519 25,302,610 24,923,629 24,514,329 24,072,285 23,594,877 23,079,277 22,522,429 21,921,033 21,271,525 20,570,057 19,812,471 18,994,278 18,110,630 17,156,290 16,125,603 15,012,461 13,810,267 12,511,898 11,109,660 9,595,242 7,959,671 6,193,255 4,285,525 2,225,176 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 25,958,113 26,595,911 27,454,874 28,285,670 29,117,713 29,961,442 30,828,203 31,700,255 32,631,870 33,281,124 32,451,113 33,744,319 36,109,728 37,348,613 38,567,192 39,810,333 41,094,132 42,431,250 43,816,050 45,287,743 46,671,024 46,981,629 47,449,084 51,325,319 53,412,901 55,509,678 57,692,861 59,989,662 62,417,455 344,250,291 + +INVESTING ACTIVITIES +Total installed cost ($) -558,522,094 +Debt closing costs ($) 0 +Debt up-front fee ($) 0 +minus: +Total IBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 +equals: +Purchase of property ($) -558,522,094 +plus: +Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease receivables ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -558,522,094 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +FINANCING ACTIVITIES +Issuance of equity ($) 220,339,639 +Size of debt ($) 338,182,456 +minus: +Debt principal payment ($) 0 2,985,283 3,224,106 3,482,034 3,760,597 4,061,445 4,386,360 4,737,269 5,116,251 5,525,551 5,967,595 6,445,002 6,960,602 7,517,451 8,118,847 8,768,354 9,469,823 10,227,409 11,045,601 11,929,249 12,883,589 13,914,277 15,027,419 16,229,612 17,527,981 18,930,220 20,444,637 22,080,208 23,846,625 25,754,355 27,814,703 +equals: +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 558,522,094 -2,985,283 -3,224,106 -3,482,034 -3,760,597 -4,061,445 -4,386,360 -4,737,269 -5,116,251 -5,525,551 -5,967,595 -6,445,002 -6,960,602 -7,517,451 -8,118,847 -8,768,354 -9,469,823 -10,227,409 -11,045,601 -11,929,249 -12,883,589 -13,914,277 -15,027,419 -16,229,612 -17,527,981 -18,930,220 -20,444,637 -22,080,208 -23,846,625 -25,754,355 -27,814,703 + +PROJECT RETURNS +Pre-tax Cash Flow: +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 25,958,113 26,595,911 27,454,874 28,285,670 29,117,713 29,961,442 30,828,203 31,700,255 32,631,870 33,281,124 32,451,113 33,744,319 36,109,728 37,348,613 38,567,192 39,810,333 41,094,132 42,431,250 43,816,050 45,287,743 46,671,024 46,981,629 47,449,084 51,325,319 53,412,901 55,509,678 57,692,861 59,989,662 62,417,455 344,250,291 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -558,522,094 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 558,522,094 -2,985,283 -3,224,106 -3,482,034 -3,760,597 -4,061,445 -4,386,360 -4,737,269 -5,116,251 -5,525,551 -5,967,595 -6,445,002 -6,960,602 -7,517,451 -8,118,847 -8,768,354 -9,469,823 -10,227,409 -11,045,601 -11,929,249 -12,883,589 -13,914,277 -15,027,419 -16,229,612 -17,527,981 -18,930,220 -20,444,637 -22,080,208 -23,846,625 -25,754,355 -27,814,703 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 22,972,830 23,371,805 23,972,840 24,525,073 25,056,268 25,575,081 26,090,934 26,584,005 27,106,319 27,313,529 26,006,111 26,783,717 28,592,277 29,229,766 29,798,838 30,340,510 30,866,724 31,385,649 31,886,800 32,404,153 32,756,747 31,954,210 31,219,472 33,797,338 34,482,682 35,065,040 35,612,652 36,143,037 36,663,100 316,435,588 + +Pre-tax Returns: +Issuance of equity ($) 220,339,639 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 22,972,830 23,371,805 23,972,840 24,525,073 25,056,268 25,575,081 26,090,934 26,584,005 27,106,319 27,313,529 26,006,111 26,783,717 28,592,277 29,229,766 29,798,838 30,340,510 30,866,724 31,385,649 31,886,800 32,404,153 32,756,747 31,954,210 31,219,472 33,797,338 34,482,682 35,065,040 35,612,652 36,143,037 36,663,100 316,435,588 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -220,339,639 22,972,830 23,371,805 23,972,840 24,525,073 25,056,268 25,575,081 26,090,934 26,584,005 27,106,319 27,313,529 26,006,111 26,783,717 28,592,277 29,229,766 29,798,838 30,340,510 30,866,724 31,385,649 31,886,800 32,404,153 32,756,747 31,954,210 31,219,472 33,797,338 34,482,682 35,065,040 35,612,652 36,143,037 36,663,100 316,435,588 + +After-tax Returns: +Total pre-tax returns ($) -220,339,639 22,972,830 23,371,805 23,972,840 24,525,073 25,056,268 25,575,081 26,090,934 26,584,005 27,106,319 27,313,529 26,006,111 26,783,717 28,592,277 29,229,766 29,798,838 30,340,510 30,866,724 31,385,649 31,886,800 32,404,153 32,756,747 31,954,210 31,219,472 33,797,338 34,482,682 35,065,040 35,612,652 36,143,037 36,663,100 316,435,588 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 167,556,628 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -2,824,173 -573,016 -745,191 -911,720 -1,078,499 -1,247,620 -1,421,358 -1,596,157 -1,782,894 -1,913,034 -1,746,662 -2,005,879 -2,480,014 -2,728,342 -2,972,600 -3,221,781 -3,479,112 -3,747,131 -4,024,707 -4,319,701 -6,975,973 -9,417,233 -9,510,932 -10,287,904 -10,706,349 -11,126,637 -11,564,245 -12,024,628 -12,511,267 -69,003,250 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -641,073 -130,072 -169,155 -206,956 -244,814 -283,203 -322,641 -362,320 -404,708 -434,249 -396,484 -455,324 -562,951 -619,320 -674,765 -731,328 -789,741 -850,580 -913,588 -980,550 -1,583,511 -2,137,664 -2,158,933 -2,335,302 -2,430,287 -2,525,690 -2,625,025 -2,729,530 -2,839,994 -15,663,388 +Total after-tax returns ($) -220,339,639 187,064,211 22,668,717 23,058,494 23,406,397 23,732,955 24,044,258 24,346,934 24,625,528 24,918,717 24,966,246 23,862,965 24,322,513 25,549,313 25,882,104 26,151,473 26,387,400 26,597,870 26,787,938 26,948,505 27,103,902 24,197,264 20,399,314 19,549,607 21,174,132 21,346,046 21,412,713 21,423,382 21,388,879 21,311,839 231,768,950 + +After-tax net cash flow ($) -4,210,175 -42,311,955 -173,817,509 187,064,211 22,668,717 23,058,494 23,406,397 23,732,955 24,044,258 24,346,934 24,625,528 24,918,717 24,966,246 23,862,965 24,322,513 25,549,313 25,882,104 26,151,473 26,387,400 26,597,870 26,787,938 26,948,505 27,103,902 24,197,264 20,399,314 19,549,607 21,174,132 21,346,046 21,412,713 21,423,382 21,388,879 21,311,839 231,768,950 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN NaN NaN -12.59 -3.62 3.68 9.04 12.87 15.61 17.59 19.04 20.12 20.92 21.50 21.95 22.32 22.60 22.83 23.01 23.15 23.26 23.35 23.42 23.47 23.50 23.53 23.55 23.57 23.58 23.60 23.61 23.61 23.68 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -4,210,175 -40,995,502 -172,371,670 -49,450,890 -36,500,791 -25,048,600 -14,942,030 -6,032,956 1,814,043 8,721,976 14,796,341 20,140,170 24,794,869 28,662,761 32,090,202 35,220,259 37,976,925 40,398,468 42,522,711 44,384,224 46,014,157 47,439,689 48,686,170 49,653,626 50,362,702 50,953,483 51,509,778 51,997,339 52,422,540 52,792,388 53,113,409 53,391,495 56,020,699 + +AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE +Annual costs ($) -220,339,639 107,669,593 -57,124,877 -57,336,135 -57,540,465 -57,745,101 -57,952,612 -58,165,788 -58,380,265 -58,609,391 -58,769,072 -58,564,935 -58,882,992 -59,464,753 -59,769,450 -60,069,154 -60,374,898 -60,690,642 -61,019,499 -61,360,084 -61,722,040 -64,981,272 -67,976,685 -68,091,654 -69,044,994 -69,558,425 -70,074,116 -70,611,059 -71,175,946 -71,773,050 138,172,621 +PPA revenue ($) 0 79,394,618 79,793,593 80,394,629 80,946,861 81,478,056 81,996,870 82,512,722 83,005,793 83,528,108 83,735,318 82,427,899 83,205,505 85,014,066 85,651,555 86,220,627 86,762,298 87,288,512 87,807,437 88,308,589 88,825,942 89,178,536 88,375,999 87,641,260 90,219,126 90,904,470 91,486,829 92,034,441 92,564,825 93,084,889 93,596,329 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 835,732,825 839,932,562 841,211,977 841,968,603 842,498,774 842,895,456 843,257,254 843,383,391 843,803,492 841,053,817 823,208,821 826,271,156 839,479,273 841,040,402 841,916,087 842,516,006 842,960,040 843,329,210 843,524,588 843,871,766.0 842,658,376 830,601,494 819,306,910 838,935,524 840,851,635 841,800,046 842,420,513 842,877,666 843,236,607 843,514,141 + +Present value of annual costs ($) 457,963,737 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 5,506,023,725 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.32 + +Present value of PPA revenue ($) 539,799,092 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 5,506,023,725 +LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.80 + +PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES +EBITDA ($) 0 53,012,709 53,411,684 54,012,720 54,564,952 55,096,147 55,614,961 56,130,813 56,623,884 57,146,199 57,353,409 56,045,990 56,823,596 58,632,157 59,269,645 59,838,717 60,380,389 60,906,603 61,425,528 61,926,680 62,444,033 62,796,627 61,994,090 61,259,351 63,837,217 64,522,561 65,104,920 65,652,532 66,182,916 66,702,980 346,475,467 +State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State taxable IBI income ($) 0 +State taxable CBI income ($) 0 +minus: +Debt interest payment ($) 0 27,054,596 26,815,774 26,557,845 26,279,283 25,978,435 25,653,519 25,302,610 24,923,629 24,514,329 24,072,285 23,594,877 23,079,277 22,522,429 21,921,033 21,271,525 20,570,057 19,812,471 18,994,278 18,110,630 17,156,290 16,125,603 15,012,461 13,810,267 12,511,898 11,109,660 9,595,242 7,959,671 6,193,255 4,285,525 2,225,176 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 11,868,595 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 11,868,595 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +State taxable income ($) 0 14,089,518 2,858,722 3,717,685 4,548,481 5,380,524 6,224,253 7,091,014 7,963,066 8,894,681 9,543,935 8,713,924 10,007,130 12,372,539 13,611,424 14,830,003 16,073,144 17,356,943 18,694,061 20,078,861 21,550,554 34,802,429 46,981,629 47,449,084 51,325,319 53,412,901 55,509,678 57,692,861 59,989,662 62,417,455 344,250,291 + +State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -641,073 -130,072 -169,155 -206,956 -244,814 -283,203 -322,641 -362,320 -404,708 -434,249 -396,484 -455,324 -562,951 -619,320 -674,765 -731,328 -789,741 -850,580 -913,588 -980,550 -1,583,511 -2,137,664 -2,158,933 -2,335,302 -2,430,287 -2,525,690 -2,625,025 -2,729,530 -2,839,994 -15,663,388 + +PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES +EBITDA ($) 0 53,012,709 53,411,684 54,012,720 54,564,952 55,096,147 55,614,961 56,130,813 56,623,884 57,146,199 57,353,409 56,045,990 56,823,596 58,632,157 59,269,645 59,838,717 60,380,389 60,906,603 61,425,528 61,926,680 62,444,033 62,796,627 61,994,090 61,259,351 63,837,217 64,522,561 65,104,920 65,652,532 66,182,916 66,702,980 346,475,467 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -641,073 -130,072 -169,155 -206,956 -244,814 -283,203 -322,641 -362,320 -404,708 -434,249 -396,484 -455,324 -562,951 -619,320 -674,765 -731,328 -789,741 -850,580 -913,588 -980,550 -1,583,511 -2,137,664 -2,158,933 -2,335,302 -2,430,287 -2,525,690 -2,625,025 -2,729,530 -2,839,994 -15,663,388 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +minus: +Debt interest payment ($) 0 27,054,596 26,815,774 26,557,845 26,279,283 25,978,435 25,653,519 25,302,610 24,923,629 24,514,329 24,072,285 23,594,877 23,079,277 22,522,429 21,921,033 21,271,525 20,570,057 19,812,471 18,994,278 18,110,630 17,156,290 16,125,603 15,012,461 13,810,267 12,511,898 11,109,660 9,595,242 7,959,671 6,193,255 4,285,525 2,225,176 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 11,868,595 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 23,737,189 11,868,595 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +Federal taxable income ($) 0 13,448,445 2,728,650 3,548,531 4,341,525 5,135,710 5,941,049 6,768,373 7,600,747 8,489,973 9,109,686 8,317,440 9,551,806 11,809,588 12,992,104 14,155,238 15,341,816 16,567,202 17,843,481 19,165,273 20,570,004 33,218,919 44,843,965 45,290,151 48,990,017 50,982,614 52,983,987 55,067,835 57,260,132 59,577,461 328,586,903 + +Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -2,824,173 -573,016 -745,191 -911,720 -1,078,499 -1,247,620 -1,421,358 -1,596,157 -1,782,894 -1,913,034 -1,746,662 -2,005,879 -2,480,014 -2,728,342 -2,972,600 -3,221,781 -3,479,112 -3,747,131 -4,024,707 -4,319,701 -6,975,973 -9,417,233 -9,510,932 -10,287,904 -10,706,349 -11,126,637 -11,564,245 -12,024,628 -12,511,267 -69,003,250 + +CASH INCENTIVES +Federal IBI income ($) 0 +State IBI income ($) 0 +Utility IBI income ($) 0 +Other IBI income ($) 0 +Total IBI income ($) 0 + +Federal CBI income ($) 0 +State CBI income ($) 0 +Utility CBI income ($) 0 +Other CBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 + +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +TAX CREDITS +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 167,556,628 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 167,556,628 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +DEBT REPAYMENT +Debt balance ($) 338,182,456 335,197,173 331,973,067 328,491,033 324,730,436 320,668,991 316,282,631 311,545,362 306,429,111 300,903,561 294,935,966 288,490,963 281,530,361 274,012,910 265,894,064 257,125,709 247,655,886 237,428,478 226,382,876 214,453,627 201,570,037 187,655,761 172,628,342 156,398,730 138,870,748 119,940,529 99,495,891 77,415,683 53,569,058 27,814,703 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 27,054,596 26,815,774 26,557,845 26,279,283 25,978,435 25,653,519 25,302,610 24,923,629 24,514,329 24,072,285 23,594,877 23,079,277 22,522,429 21,921,033 21,271,525 20,570,057 19,812,471 18,994,278 18,110,630 17,156,290 16,125,603 15,012,461 13,810,267 12,511,898 11,109,660 9,595,242 7,959,671 6,193,255 4,285,525 2,225,176 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 2,985,283 3,224,106 3,482,034 3,760,597 4,061,445 4,386,360 4,737,269 5,116,251 5,525,551 5,967,595 6,445,002 6,960,602 7,517,451 8,118,847 8,768,354 9,469,823 10,227,409 11,045,601 11,929,249 12,883,589 13,914,277 15,027,419 16,229,612 17,527,981 18,930,220 20,444,637 22,080,208 23,846,625 25,754,355 27,814,703 +Debt total payment ($) 0 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 + +DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) +EBITDA ($) 0 53,012,709 53,411,684 54,012,720 54,564,952 55,096,147 55,614,961 56,130,813 56,623,884 57,146,199 57,353,409 56,045,990 56,823,596 58,632,157 59,269,645 59,838,717 60,380,389 60,906,603 61,425,528 61,926,680 62,444,033 62,796,627 61,994,090 61,259,351 63,837,217 64,522,561 65,104,920 65,652,532 66,182,916 66,702,980 346,475,467 +minus: +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +equals: +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 53,012,709 53,411,684 54,012,720 54,564,952 55,096,147 55,614,961 56,130,813 56,623,884 57,146,199 57,353,409 56,045,990 56,823,596 58,632,157 59,269,645 59,838,717 60,380,389 60,906,603 61,425,528 61,926,680 62,444,033 62,796,627 61,994,090 61,259,351 63,837,217 64,522,561 65,104,920 65,652,532 66,182,916 66,702,980 346,475,467 +Debt total payment ($) 0 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 30,039,880 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 1.76 1.78 1.80 1.82 1.83 1.85 1.87 1.88 1.90 1.91 1.87 1.89 1.95 1.97 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.04 2.06 2.08 2.09 2.06 2.04 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.19 2.20 2.22 11.53 + +RESERVES +Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves debt service funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves total reserves balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest on reserves (%/year) 1.75 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.txt new file mode 100644 index 000000000..26ea83dd1 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.txt @@ -0,0 +1,91 @@ +# Case Study: 100 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station Phase I +# See documentation: https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html + +# *** ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL PARAMETERS *** +# ************************************* +Economic Model, 5, -- SAM Single Owner PPA + +Starting Electricity Sale Price, 0.095, -- Upper end of ranges given in https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal +Electricity Escalation Rate Per Year, 0.00057, -- calibrated to reach 10 cents/kWh at project year 11 +Ending Electricity Sale Price, 1, -- Note that this value does not directly determine price at the end of the project life, but rather as a cap as the maximum price to which the starting price can escalate. +Electricity Escalation Start Year, 1 + +Discount Rate, 0.12 +Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .6, -- Based on fraction of CAPEX with $1 billion in sponsor equity per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ +Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .08 +Inflated Bond Interest Rate During Construction, 0.1, -- Higher interest rate during construction to account for increased risk of default. + +Inflation Rate, .027, -- US inflation as of December 2025 +Construction Years, 3, 2023–2028 +Construction CAPEX Schedule, 0.014,0.027,0.137,0.274,0.548 + +Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0.3 +Combined Income Tax Rate, .2555, -- Federal Corporate Income Tax Rate of 21% plus Utah Corporate Franchise and Income Tax Rate of 4.55%. (Note: This input uses a simple summation of statutory rates; the effective combined rate calculated in the model may differ due to standard federal-state tax interactions.) +Property Tax Rate, 0.0022, -- Utah Inland Port Authority (UIPA) tax differential incentive + +Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation, 1900, -- https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf +Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects + +Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) +Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.9, -- NREL Geothermal 2024b ATB https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024b/geothermal + +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4 +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4 + +Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ + +# *** SURFACE & SUBSURFACE TECHNICAL PARAMETERS *** +# ************************************************* +End-Use Option, 1, -- Electricity +Power Plant Type, 2, -- Supercritical ORC +Plant Lifetime, 30, -- Per https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/ + +Reservoir Model, 1, -- Multiple Parallel Fractures (Gringarten) +Reservoir Depth, 2.5908, -- 8500 feet per https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf + +Gradient 1, 74, -- temperature at 8500 ft: 200 degC (https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf); 228.89 degC @ 9824 ft (https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C) +Number of Segments, 1 + +Reservoir Density, 2800, -- per https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B: phyllite + quartzite + diorite + granodiorite +Reservoir Heat Capacity, 790 +Reservoir Thermal Conductivity, 3.05 +Reservoir Porosity, 0.0118 + +Productivity Index, 2.494, -- [kg/s/bar] NREL ATB conservative scenario (https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal) +Injectivity Index, 3.015, -- [kg/s/bar] NREL ATB conservative scenario (https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal) + +Reservoir Volume Option, 1, -- FRAC_NUM_SEP: Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input +Number of Fractures per Stimulated Well, 200, -- 25 stages with 8 clusters per stage +Fracture Separation, 7.315 +Fracture Shape, 2, -- CIRCULAR_DIAMETER +Fracture Height, 186.16, -- Approximates ellipsoidal fracture with 228 meter height and 152 meter width +Number of Doublets, 10 + +Production Flow Rate per Well, 120, -- Maximum Fervo-tested flow rate +Production Well Diameter, 8.535, -- Inner diameter for 9-5/8" casing size +Injection Well Diameter, 8.535, -- Inner diameter for 9-5/8" casing size + +Ramey Production Wellbore Model, 1 +Injection Temperature, 53.6, -- GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature +Injection Wellbore Temperature Gain, 3 + +Ambient Temperature, 10, -- degC +Surface Temperature, 10, -- degC + +Maximum Drawdown, 0.02, -- Drawdown value that prevents minimum net electricity generation from going below 100 MWe +Water Loss Fraction, 0.15, -- Estimated to be between 10 and 20% + +Utilization Factor, .9 +Plant Outlet Pressure, 1000 psi, -- https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C +Production Wellhead Pressure, 325 psi, -- https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C +Circulation Pump Efficiency, 0.80 + +Well Geometry Configuration, 4, -- L +Number of Multilateral Sections, 0, -- This parameter is set to 0 because, for this case study, the cost of horizontal drilling (which would otherwise account for approximately 118 multilateral sections) is included within the 'vertical drilling cost.' This approach allows us to more directly convey the overall well drilling and completion cost, which is under $4 million. +Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4800 feet, -- Fervo presentation at Payne Institute, Dec 2, 2025 +Multilaterals Cased, True + +# *** SIMULATION PARAMETERS *** +# ***************************** +Maximum Temperature, 500 +Time steps per year, 12 diff --git a/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.out b/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.out index 7d3ac7f2c..ac43d7691 100644 --- a/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.out +++ b/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.out @@ -4,10 +4,10 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- - GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.22 - Simulation Date: 2025-12-15 - Simulation Time: 09:15 - Calculation Time: 1.769 sec + GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.24 + Simulation Date: 2025-12-24 + Simulation Time: 15:35 + Calculation Time: 1.840 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** @@ -69,9 +69,9 @@ Simulation Metadata Well separation: fracture height: 500.00 meter Fracture area: 250000.00 m**2 Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input - Number of fractures: 1663 + Number of fractures: 1650 Fracture separation: 26.00 meter - Reservoir volume: 10803000000 m**3 + Reservoir volume: 10718500000 m**3 Reservoir hydrostatic pressure: 24578.69 kPa Plant outlet pressure: 6894.76 kPa Production wellhead pressure: 2240.80 kPa @@ -179,36 +179,36 @@ Simulation Metadata YEAR ELECTRICITY HEAT RESERVOIR PERCENTAGE OF PROVIDED EXTRACTED HEAT CONTENT TOTAL HEAT MINED (GWh/year) (GWh/year) (10^15 J) (%) - 1 859.5 5629.4 3310.87 0.61 - 2 865.7 5651.2 3290.53 1.22 - 3 867.6 5657.8 3270.16 1.83 - 4 868.8 5661.7 3249.78 2.44 - 5 869.6 5664.5 3229.38 3.05 - 6 870.2 5666.6 3208.98 3.67 - 7 870.7 5668.3 3188.58 4.28 - 8 871.1 5669.6 3168.17 4.89 - 9 871.4 5670.8 3147.75 5.51 - 10 871.7 5671.9 3127.33 6.12 - 11 872.0 5672.8 3106.91 6.73 - 12 872.2 5673.6 3086.49 7.34 - 13 872.4 5674.4 3066.06 7.96 - 14 872.6 5675.0 3045.63 8.57 - 15 872.8 5675.6 3025.20 9.18 - 16 872.9 5676.2 3004.76 9.80 - 17 873.1 5676.7 2984.33 10.41 - 18 873.2 5677.2 2963.89 11.02 - 19 873.4 5677.7 2943.45 11.64 - 20 873.5 5678.1 2923.01 12.25 - 21 873.6 5678.5 2902.56 12.87 - 22 873.7 5678.9 2882.12 13.48 - 23 873.8 5679.3 2861.67 14.09 - 24 873.9 5679.6 2841.23 14.71 - 25 874.0 5679.9 2820.78 15.32 - 26 874.1 5680.2 2800.33 15.93 - 27 874.2 5680.5 2779.88 16.55 - 28 874.3 5680.8 2759.43 17.16 - 29 874.4 5681.1 2738.98 17.78 - 30 874.4 5681.4 2718.53 18.39 + 1 859.5 5629.4 3284.81 0.61 + 2 865.7 5651.2 3264.47 1.23 + 3 867.6 5657.8 3244.10 1.84 + 4 868.8 5661.7 3223.72 2.46 + 5 869.6 5664.5 3203.33 3.08 + 6 870.2 5666.6 3182.93 3.70 + 7 870.7 5668.3 3162.52 4.31 + 8 871.1 5669.6 3142.11 4.93 + 9 871.4 5670.8 3121.70 5.55 + 10 871.7 5671.9 3101.28 6.17 + 11 872.0 5672.8 3080.86 6.78 + 12 872.2 5673.6 3060.43 7.40 + 13 872.4 5674.4 3040.00 8.02 + 14 872.6 5675.0 3019.57 8.64 + 15 872.8 5675.6 2999.14 9.26 + 16 872.9 5676.2 2978.71 9.87 + 17 873.1 5676.7 2958.27 10.49 + 18 873.2 5677.2 2937.83 11.11 + 19 873.4 5677.7 2917.39 11.73 + 20 873.5 5678.1 2896.95 12.35 + 21 873.6 5678.5 2876.51 12.97 + 22 873.7 5678.9 2856.06 13.59 + 23 873.8 5679.3 2835.62 14.20 + 24 873.9 5679.6 2815.17 14.82 + 25 874.0 5679.9 2794.72 15.44 + 26 874.1 5680.2 2774.28 16.06 + 27 874.2 5680.5 2753.83 16.68 + 28 874.3 5680.8 2733.37 17.30 + 29 874.4 5681.1 2712.92 17.92 + 30 874.4 5681.4 2692.47 18.54 *************************** * SAM CASH FLOW PROFILE * @@ -232,9 +232,9 @@ Installed cost [construction] ($) -6,132,082 -12,546,240 -44,921 After-tax net cash flow [construction] ($) -6,132,082 -12,546,240 -44,921,812 -22,977,507 -47,011,979 -48,093,255 -98,398,799 ENERGY -Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 859,490,068 865,758,172 867,671,460 868,803,529 869,596,370 870,200,786 870,686,054 871,089,570 871,433,728 871,732,959 871,997,081 872,233,061 872,446,015 872,639,805 872,817,414 872,981,192 873,133,019 873,274,427 873,406,675 873,530,811 873,647,716 873,758,141 873,862,724 873,962,017 874,056,500 874,146,590 874,232,654 874,315,016 874,393,962 874,466,670 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 859,490,068 865,758,172 867,671,460 868,803,529 869,596,370 870,200,786 870,686,054 871,089,570 871,433,728 871,732,959 871,997,081 872,233,061 872,446,015 872,639,805 872,817,414 872,981,191 873,133,019 873,274,427 873,406,675 873,530,811 873,647,716 873,758,141 873,862,724 873,962,017 874,056,500 874,146,590 874,232,654 874,315,016 874,393,962 874,466,670 Electricity from grid (kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 859,490,068 865,758,172 867,671,460 868,803,529 869,596,370 870,200,786 870,686,054 871,089,570 871,433,728 871,732,959 871,997,081 872,233,061 872,446,015 872,639,805 872,817,414 872,981,192 873,133,019 873,274,427 873,406,675 873,530,811 873,647,716 873,758,141 873,862,724 873,962,017 874,056,500 874,146,590 874,232,654 874,315,016 874,393,962 874,466,670 +Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 859,490,068 865,758,172 867,671,460 868,803,529 869,596,370 870,200,786 870,686,054 871,089,570 871,433,728 871,732,959 871,997,081 872,233,061 872,446,015 872,639,805 872,817,414 872,981,191 873,133,019 873,274,427 873,406,675 873,530,811 873,647,716 873,758,141 873,862,724 873,962,017 874,056,500 874,146,590 874,232,654 874,315,016 874,393,962 874,466,670 REVENUE PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 8.0 8.0 8.32 8.64 8.97 9.29 9.61 9.93 10.25 10.58 10.90 11.22 11.54 11.86 12.19 12.51 12.83 13.15 13.47 13.80 14.12 14.44 14.76 15.08 15.41 15.73 16.05 16.37 16.69 17.02 @@ -328,14 +328,14 @@ After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -6,132,082 -17,487,790 -54,288 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE Annual costs ($) -280,081,674 163,885,873 -45,513,073 -46,385,473 -47,249,566 -48,114,308 -48,983,020 -49,857,494 -50,738,953 -51,628,379 -52,526,647 -53,434,591 -54,353,042 -55,282,847 -56,224,884 -57,180,074 -58,149,386 -59,133,850 -60,134,558 -61,152,671 -62,189,430 -67,252,394 -72,336,738 -73,437,733 -74,563,229 -75,714,948 -76,894,734 -78,104,556 -79,346,524 -80,622,890 179,112,172 PPA revenue ($) 0 68,759,205 69,260,654 72,207,619 75,099,377 77,968,011 80,824,249 83,672,930 86,516,616 89,356,814 92,194,478 95,030,242 97,864,549 100,697,719 103,529,986 106,361,530 109,192,487 112,022,966 114,853,053 117,682,815 120,512,311 123,341,585 126,170,676 128,999,615 131,828,431 134,657,144 137,485,776 140,314,341 143,142,854 145,971,328 148,799,249 -Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 859,490,068 865,758,172 867,671,460 868,803,529 869,596,370 870,200,786 870,686,054 871,089,570 871,433,728 871,732,959 871,997,081 872,233,061 872,446,015 872,639,805 872,817,414 872,981,192 873,133,019 873,274,427 873,406,675 873,530,811 873,647,716 873,758,141 873,862,724 873,962,017 874,056,500 874,146,590 874,232,654 874,315,016 874,393,962 874,466,670 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 859,490,068 865,758,172 867,671,460 868,803,529 869,596,370 870,200,786 870,686,054 871,089,570 871,433,728 871,732,959 871,997,081 872,233,061 872,446,015 872,639,805 872,817,414 872,981,191 873,133,019 873,274,427 873,406,675 873,530,811 873,647,716 873,758,141 873,862,724 873,962,017 874,056,500 874,146,590 874,232,654 874,315,016 874,393,962 874,466,670 Present value of annual costs ($) 554,074,192 -Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 7,877,183,891 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 7,877,183,890 LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 7.03 Present value of PPA revenue ($) 809,659,354 -Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 7,877,183,891 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 7,877,183,890 LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 10.28 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES diff --git a/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.txt b/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.txt index fe78ef48d..b46d60ad2 100644 --- a/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.txt +++ b/tests/examples/example_SAM-single-owner-PPA-5.txt @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ Plant Lifetime, 30 Reservoir Model, 1 Reservoir Volume Option, 1, -- FRAC_NUM_SEP: Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input -Number of Fractures, 1663, -- 55 fractures per well +Number of Fractures per Stimulated Well, 55 Fracture Shape, 3, -- Square Fracture Separation, 26, diff --git a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py index 57d9e8886..dab98e352 100644 --- a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py +++ b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py @@ -29,26 +29,26 @@ def test_fervo_project_cape_4_results_against_reference_values(self): max_total_gen = r.result['SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS']['Maximum Total Electricity Generation'][ 'value' ] - self.assertGreater(max_total_gen, 600) - self.assertLess(max_total_gen, 650) + self.assertGreater(max_total_gen, 550) + self.assertLess(max_total_gen, 600) lcoe = r.result['SUMMARY OF RESULTS']['Electricity breakeven price']['value'] self.assertGreater(lcoe, 7.5) self.assertLess(lcoe, 8.5) redrills = r.result['ENGINEERING PARAMETERS']['Number of times redrilling']['value'] - self.assertGreater(redrills, 2) - self.assertLess(redrills, 7) + self.assertGreater(redrills, 1) + self.assertLess(redrills, 6) well_cost = r.result['CAPITAL COSTS (M$)']['Drilling and completion costs per well']['value'] - self.assertLess(well_cost, 4.0) - self.assertGreater(well_cost, 3.0) + self.assertLess(well_cost, 5.0) + self.assertGreater(well_cost, 4.0) pumping_power_pct = r.result['SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS'][ 'Initial pumping power/net installed power' ]['value'] - self.assertGreater(pumping_power_pct, 13) - self.assertLess(pumping_power_pct, 17) + self.assertGreater(pumping_power_pct, 5) + self.assertLess(pumping_power_pct, 15) self.assertEqual( r.result['SUMMARY OF RESULTS']['Number of production wells']['value'], @@ -72,10 +72,10 @@ def test_case_study_documentation(self): inputs_in_markdown = self.parse_markdown_inputs_structured(documentation_file_content) results_in_markdown = self.parse_markdown_results_structured(documentation_file_content) - self.assertEqual(3.96, results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['value']) + self.assertEqual(4.46, results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['value']) self.assertEqual('MUSD/well', results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['unit']) - expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well = 4.6 + expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well = 4.83 self.assertEqual(expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well, results_in_markdown['Stimulation Costs']['value']) self.assertEqual('MUSD/well', results_in_markdown['Stimulation Costs']['unit']) @@ -147,7 +147,7 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): example_result.result['SUMMARY OF RESULTS']['Number of production wells']['value'], num_doublets ) - num_fracs_per_well = inputs_in_markdown['Number of Fractures per well']['value'] + num_fracs_per_well = inputs_in_markdown['Number of Fractures per Well']['value'] expected_total_fracs = num_doublets * 2 * num_fracs_per_well self.assertEqual( expected_total_fracs, example_result.result['RESERVOIR PARAMETERS']['Number of fractures']['value'] @@ -158,10 +158,14 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): inputs_in_markdown['Reservoir Volume']['value'], ) - expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD = expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well * num_doublets * 2 - self.assertEqual( + additional_expected_stim_indirect_cost_frac = 0.00 + expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD = ( + expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well * num_doublets * 2 * (1.0 + additional_expected_stim_indirect_cost_frac) + ) + self.assertAlmostEqualWithinSigFigs( expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD, example_result.result['CAPITAL COSTS (M$)']['Stimulation costs']['value'], + num_sig_figs=3, ) def parse_markdown_results_structured(self, markdown_text: str) -> dict: @@ -240,8 +244,8 @@ def parse_markdown_inputs_structured(self, markdown_text: str) -> dict: """ try: # Isolate the content from "## Inputs" to the next "## " header - sections = re.split(r'(^##\s.*)', markdown_text, flags=re.MULTILINE) - inputs_header_index = next(i for i, s in enumerate(sections) if s.startswith('## Inputs')) + sections = re.split(r'(^###\s.*)', markdown_text, flags=re.MULTILINE) + inputs_header_index = next(i for i, s in enumerate(sections) if s.startswith('### Inputs')) inputs_content = sections[inputs_header_index + 1] except (StopIteration, IndexError): print("Warning: '## Inputs' section not found or is empty.") diff --git a/tests/regenerate-example-result.env.template b/tests/regenerate-example-result.env.template new file mode 100644 index 000000000..530681cb3 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/regenerate-example-result.env.template @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +# export GEOPHIRES_FPC4_SENSITIVITY_ANALYSIS_PROJECT_ROOT= diff --git a/tests/regenerate-example-result.sh b/tests/regenerate-example-result.sh index faef5cee3..599492fcc 100755 --- a/tests/regenerate-example-result.sh +++ b/tests/regenerate-example-result.sh @@ -1,5 +1,7 @@ #!/bin/zsh +set -e +cd "$(dirname "$0")" # Use this script to regenerate example results in cases where changes in GEOPHIRES # calculations alter the example test output. Example: @@ -9,7 +11,6 @@ # Note: make sure your virtualenv is activated before running or this script will fail # or generate incorrect results. -cd "$(dirname "$0")" python -mgeophires_x examples/$1.txt examples/$1.out rm examples/$1.json @@ -18,3 +19,32 @@ then echo "Updating CSV..." python regenerate_example_result_csv.py example1_addons fi + +if [[ $1 == "Fervo_Project_Cape-4" ]] +then + echo "Regenerating Fervo_Project_Cape-5..." + sed -e 's/Construction Years, 5/Construction Years, 3/' \ + -e 's/Number of Doublets, 50/Number of Doublets, 10/' \ + -e 's/500 MWe/100 MWe/' \ + -e 's/Phase II/Phase I/' \ + examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt > examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.txt + + python -mgeophires_x examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.txt examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.out + rm examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.json + + if [ ! -f regenerate-example-result.env ] && [ -f regenerate-example-result.env.template ]; then + echo "Creating regenerate-example-result.env from template..." + cp regenerate-example-result.env.template regenerate-example-result.env + fi + + source regenerate-example-result.env + if [ -n "$GEOPHIRES_FPC4_SENSITIVITY_ANALYSIS_PROJECT_ROOT" ]; then + echo "Updating sensitivity analysis..." + STASH_PWD=$(pwd) + cd $GEOPHIRES_FPC4_SENSITIVITY_ANALYSIS_PROJECT_ROOT + source venv/bin/activate + python -m fpc4_sensitivity_analysis + deactivate + cd $STASH_PWD + fi +fi diff --git a/tox.ini b/tox.ini index ce5b99e78..c15a9fcf1 100644 --- a/tox.ini +++ b/tox.ini @@ -63,6 +63,7 @@ commands = python src/geophires_x_schema_generator/main.py --build-path docs/ sphinx-build {posargs:-E} -b html docs dist/docs sphinx-build docs dist/docs + python -c "import shutil; shutil.copytree('docs/_images', 'dist/docs/_images', dirs_exist_ok=True)" ; TODO re-enable linkcheck probably - `sphinx-build -b linkcheck docs dist/docs` [testenv:report]