📊 Prediction Market Tracker

A beautiful, self-hosted web application for tracking your prediction market trades (Kalshi, Polymarket, etc.) and documenting your market insights. All data is stored directly in your GitHub repository with automatic version control.

✨ Features

• 📈 Trade Tracking - Log all your prediction market trades with detailed information
• 💡 Market Insights - Document your understanding of market dynamics and patterns
• 📊 Portfolio Analytics - Track total invested, win rate, P&L, and average entry odds
• ⚡ Market Impact Analysis - See how your trades move the market (great for low-volume markets)
• 🔄 GitHub Integration - All data commits directly to your repo with full version history
• 📱 Responsive Design - Works beautifully on desktop, tablet, and mobile
• 🎨 Beautiful UI - Clean, modern interface with smooth animations

🚀 Quick Start Guide

Step 1: Fork/Clone This Repository

# Option 1: Fork on GitHub (recommended)
Click the "Fork" button at the top right of this repository

# Option 2: Clone directly
git clone https://github.com/yourusername/prediction-tracker.git
cd prediction-tracker

Step 2: Enable GitHub Pages

1. Go to your repository Settings
2. Navigate to Pages (in the left sidebar)
3. Under Source, select your main branch
4. Click Save
5. Your site will be live at https://yourusername.github.io/prediction-tracker

Step 3: Create a GitHub Personal Access Token

1. Go to GitHub Settings → Developer settings → Personal access tokens → Tokens (classic)
2. Click Generate new token (classic)
3. Give it a descriptive name (e.g., "Prediction Tracker")
4. Set expiration (recommend: 1 year)
5. Check the repo scope (full control of repositories)
6. Click Generate token
7. Important: Copy the token immediately - you won't see it again!

Step 4: Configure Your Tracker

1. Visit your GitHub Pages URL
2. Scroll to the GitHub Configuration section
3. Enter:
   • GitHub Username: Your GitHub username
   • Repository Name: The name of this repository (e.g., prediction-tracker)
   • Personal Access Token: Paste the token you just created
4. Click Save Configuration
5. Click Test Connection to verify everything works

Step 5: Start Tracking!

You're all set! Start adding trades and insights.

📝 How to Use

Adding a Trade

1. Market/Event Name: What you're betting on (e.g., "Hurricane Category 2+ in October")
2. Position: Yes or No
3. Amount Invested: How much you put in
4. Entry Odds: The odds when you entered
5. Post-Trade Odds (optional): Odds after your trade executed
6. Post-Trade Value (optional): Your position value after execution
7. Reasoning & Analysis: Why you made this trade (e.g., "Referenced Google WeatherLab chart showing low probability...")
8. Result (optional): Update later when the market resolves (Win/Loss/Partial)
9. Profit/Loss (optional): Your actual P&L when the trade closes

Click Add Trade and it will commit to your repository!

Adding Market Insights

Use this section to document your learning about prediction markets:

• Market dynamics you've discovered
• Patterns you've noticed
• Strategies that work or don't work
• Understanding of how liquidity affects pricing

Example Insight:

Title: Market Impact from Low Volume
Description: In low-volume markets, individual trades can significantly 
move odds. My $24.49 trade moved odds from 74% to 63%, a 11% shift. 
This suggests the market had thin liquidity and my trade became a 
significant portion of the order book.

Viewing Your Data

• Portfolio Statistics: See your total trades, capital deployed, win rate, and P&L at a glance
• Trade History: All your trades with full details, market impact analysis, and results
• Market Insights: Your accumulated knowledge about prediction markets

🎯 Use Cases

1. Personal Trading Journal

Keep detailed records of all your prediction market trades with reasoning for future analysis.

2. Portfolio Showcase

Share your GitHub Pages link to showcase your prediction market track record to others.

3. Market Research

Document patterns you notice in prediction markets and build a knowledge base.

4. Learning Tool

Analyze which types of trades work best by reviewing your historical performance.

5. Transparency

Create a public record of your predictions and reasoning (useful for building credibility).

🔒 Data Privacy

Public vs Private

• Public Repository: Anyone can see your trades and insights (great for transparency)
• Private Repository: Only you can see the data (requires paid GitHub account)

To make private:

1. Go to repository Settings
2. Scroll to Danger Zone
3. Click Change visibility → Make private

Token Security

• Your Personal Access Token is stored in browser localStorage only
• It's never committed to the repository
• It's only used for API calls to your own repository
• Keep it secure - don't share your token with anyone
• You can revoke it anytime from GitHub settings

🎨 Customization

Change Colors

Edit the CSS in index.html:

/* Main gradient */
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);

/* Change to your preferred colors */
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #your-color-1 0%, #your-color-2 100%);

Add Custom Fields

Want to track additional data? Add new form fields in the HTML:

<div class="form-group">
    <label>Your Custom Field</label>
    <input type="text" id="customField" placeholder="...">
</div>

Then capture it in the JavaScript trade object:

const trade = {
    // ... existing fields
    customField: document.getElementById('customField').value,
};

Modify Statistics

Edit the updateStats() function to calculate different metrics.

📱 Mobile Usage

The tracker is fully responsive and works great on mobile:

• Add trades from your phone while at a coffee shop
• Review your portfolio on the go
• Share your tracker URL with friends

🔄 Data Format

All data is stored in data.json in your repository:

{
  "trades": [
    {
      "marketName": "Hurricane Category 2+ in October",
      "position": "No",
      "amount": "24.49",
      "entryOdds": "74",
      "postOdds": "63",
      "postValue": "20.79",
      "reasoning": "Referenced Google WeatherLab chart...",
      "result": "Win",
      "profitLoss": "25.51",
      "date": "2025-10-09T10:30:00.000Z"
    }
  ],
  "insights": [
    {
      "title": "Market Impact from Low Volume",
      "text": "In low-volume markets...",
      "date": "2025-10-09T10:35:00.000Z"
    }
  ],
  "lastUpdated": "2025-10-09T10:35:00.000Z"
}

🐛 Troubleshooting

"Connection failed" error

• Verify your GitHub username and repo name are correct
• Check that your Personal Access Token has repo scope
• Ensure the token hasn't expired

Trades not appearing

• Click "Test Connection" to reload data from GitHub
• Check your browser console for errors (F12)
• Verify data.json exists in your repository

GitHub Pages not working

• Wait 5-10 minutes after enabling Pages (it takes time to build)
• Make sure index.html is in the root of your repository
• Check Settings → Pages to see build status

Token security concerns

• Tokens are stored locally in your browser only
• Never commit your token to the repository
• Revoke and regenerate if you suspect it's compromised

🌟 Example Use Case: The Hurricane Trade

Let's walk through the example mentioned in the app:

Scenario: You want to bet that a hurricane will NOT reach Category 2+

Trade Entry:

• Market: "Hurricane Category 2+ in October"
• Position: No
• Amount: $24.49
• Entry Odds: 74%
• Reasoning: "Referenced Google WeatherLab chart showing current conditions indicate low probability of intensification. Water temperatures are marginal and wind shear is expected to increase."

Market Impact:

• Post-Trade Odds: 63%
• Post-Trade Value: $20.79
• Your trade moved the market 11%!

Insight Documented:

• Title: "Market Impact in Low-Volume Markets"
• Text: "My $24.49 trade significantly moved odds from 74% to 63%. This highlights that in prediction markets with limited liquidity, even small trades can have outsized impact on pricing. This suggests that the total market depth was likely under $250, making this a thin market."

Result (when market resolves):

• Result: Win ✅
• Profit/Loss: +$25.51

This creates a complete record of your trade, reasoning, market analysis, and outcome!

🤝 Contributing

Want to improve the tracker? Contributions are welcome!

1. Fork the repository
2. Create a feature branch (git checkout -b feature/amazing-feature)
3. Commit your changes (git commit -m 'Add amazing feature')
4. Push to the branch (git push origin feature/amazing-feature)
5. Open a Pull Request

📄 License

This project is open source and available under the MIT License.

🙏 Acknowledgments

• Built for prediction market traders who want to track and improve their performance
• Inspired by the need for better trade journaling tools
• Uses GitHub's amazing free hosting via GitHub Pages

📧 Support

Having issues? Found a bug? Have a feature request?

• Open an issue in this repository
• The community is here to help!

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Happy Trading! May your predictions be accurate and your profits plentiful! 📈

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🔗 Quick Links

• GitHub Pages Documentation
• GitHub Personal Access Tokens Guide
• Kalshi - Prediction market platform
• Polymarket - Prediction market platform

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Pro Tip: Bookmark your GitHub Pages URL on your phone for quick trade entry on the go!