WP13: kit-class trade study + EDT physics (aligned-dipole band model)

CMakeLists.txt

@@ -72,6 +72,14 @@ target_link_libraries(flux_sweep PRIVATE adsc_core adsc_flags)
 add_executable(decay_trade src/main_decay_trade.cpp)
 target_link_libraries(decay_trade PRIVATE adsc_core adsc_flags)
 
+# WP13 kit-class trade CSV emitter: regenerates generated/wp13_kit_trade.{csv,md}
+# (sail/EDT/hybrid per-class A/B/C trade) and generated/wp13_classC.{csv,md}
+# (controlled-reentry mission-class comparison). Reuses src/decay.cpp's
+# existing sail model plus the new EDT-v1 physics core; no other physics
+# change.
+add_executable(kit_trade src/main_kit_trade.cpp)
+target_link_libraries(kit_trade PRIVATE adsc_core adsc_flags)
+
 # WP7 reference-metrics emitter: re-computes the pinned WP1/F1/WP2/WP3/WP4
 # demo numbers as generated/reference_metrics.csv so the evidence pack quotes
 # committed data only (R6). Reuses existing code paths; no physics change.

README.md

@@ -488,13 +488,20 @@ adsc-specification-v4.md   retired v4.2 spec (superseded by v5; kept because v5
   keep-out violations re-verified at L1/L2 [ds-v1/ds-v2]; the
   CW-safe-but-higher-level-unsafe case does NOT materialize for this
   dispersion set — measured, see `generated/wp12_ladder.md`).
-- **WP13–WP15 (v5)** — not started; `adsc-specification-v5.md` defines the
-  kit-class trade + EDT physics, cost ranges + FoM, and the proposal package.
-  WP9 remains the only path to TRL 5, unchanged by v5.
+- **WP13 — Kit-class trade + EDT physics** ✅ implemented (aligned-dipole
+  EDT-v1 band model with mandatory η(i) = |cos i|..cos²i — derivation:
+  `wp13-edt-derivation.md`, citations: `wp13-literature.md`; per-class
+  recommended-kit table `generated/wp13_kit_trade.csv`; class-C
+  controlled-reentry comparison `generated/wp13_classC.md`; libration T7
+  explicitly **unresolved**; SL-16 EDT is a *candidate with open risks*,
+  not a closed recommendation).
+- **WP14–WP15 (v5)** — not started; `adsc-specification-v5.md` defines the
+  cost ranges + FoM upgrade and the proposal package. WP9 remains the only
+  path to TRL 5, unchanged by v5.
 
 **Roadmap end state: WP1–WP8 complete; Phase 0 (WP10), WP11 safety
-hardening, and WP12 fidelity ladder complete.** The package is regenerable
-end-to-end with one command
+hardening, WP12 fidelity ladder, and WP13 kit-class trade + EDT physics
+complete.** The package is regenerable end-to-end with one command
 (`bash tools/regenerate_all.sh build`) and CI enforces byte-identity of every
 committed artifact on every push.
 
@@ -528,8 +535,13 @@ handoff (range = solar max .. solar min) makes the honest structure concrete:
 Sail-only closes for the lighter/lower class B (tens of m²) but **not** for the
 heavy, high stage A (hundreds-to-thousands of m² — impractical): the honest
 negative that brackets open trade T1 (drag sail vs electrodynamic tether). The
-EDT parametric study spans, e.g., 36.1 yr at 50 m/day down to 1.2 yr at
-1500 m/day of along-track decay. (The 25-year column is the IADC guideline;
+legacy EDT *parametric* study spans, e.g., 36.1 yr at 50 m/day down to 1.2 yr at
+1500 m/day of along-track decay; since WP13 the EDT branch also has a *physics*
+band (aligned-dipole, capped-current, mandatory η(i) = |cos i|..cos²i): the SL-16
+class works out at **2.98 .. 9.17 yr** with a 3 km / 2 A (PLACEHOLDER) tether —
+an **EDT candidate with open risks** (libration T7 unresolved, plasma Ne pair
+PLACEHOLDER), *not* a closed recommendation — see `generated/wp13_kit_trade.csv`
+and `wp13-edt-derivation.md`. (The 25-year column is the IADC guideline;
 under a US FCC license the current rule is **5 years** — FCC 22-74, 2022 — which
 makes the class-A sail-only negative strictly harder. See the WP8 rulepacks.)
 

evidence/adsc_evidence_pack.md

@@ -263,6 +263,60 @@ per-orbit table for both geometries is in `generated/wp12_ladder.md`.
   with a deliberately coarse altitude-independent solar factor marked
   PLACEHOLDER.
 
+### Kit-class trade + EDT physics (WP13)
+
+Data source: `generated/wp13_kit_trade.csv` (schema 1.0; column
+definitions in `generated/wp13_kit_trade_schema.md`), regenerated by
+`kit_trade` (src/main_kit_trade.cpp) by combining the EXISTING WP3
+sail-decay model with the NEW WP13 EDT-v1 aligned-dipole physics core
+(src/decay.cpp: edt_deorbit_years) -- no hand-written numbers.
+
+| catalog | recommended kit | sail area, 25-yr [m^2] | EDT deorbit time [yr] | EDT eta(i) band |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
+| SL-16 / Zenit-2 second stage | edt-candidate-open-risks | 135..2155 | 3.0..9.2 | 0.106..0.326 |
+| SL-8 / Kosmos-3M second stage | sail | 7..115 | 0.6..3.0 | 0.043..0.208 |
+| Envisat-class massive SSO payload | controlled-reentry-mission-class | 61..983 | 5.5..37.5 | 0.021..0.146 |
+
+**EDT-v1 model scope (R14 fidelity tag), quoted verbatim from the
+committed CSV -- never hand-transcribed, so the generator and the data
+cannot drift:**
+
+> [model: EDT-v1 aligned-dipole, capped-current; eta band |cos i|..cos^2 i; libration T7 OPEN - PLACEHOLDER duty factor]
+
+**Honesty check (T7, D12/D13 - never claim closed).** Libration /
+dynamic tether stability is explicitly UNRESOLVED (T7; Pelaez, J., et
+al., 2000, cited in `wp13-literature.md`); the edt_years band above
+folds it in only as a flat PLACEHOLDER duty-cycle knob
+(`EdtConfig::eta_libration`), never claimed solved. Plasma electron
+density is a cited PLACEHOLDER solar-min/max pair, not an IRI
+implementation (spec non-goal; `wp13-literature.md` Topic 3 citation
+gap). Every band above is an aligned-dipole idealization (SPENVIS
+centred dipole, IGRF epoch 2000), not a tilted-dipole or full-IGRF
+field. Deploy risk is reported, not applied: deploy_risk = 0.0500 [-]
+(PLACEHOLDER `EdtConfig::deploy_failure_prob`) is quoted for the
+record and is NOT folded into the edt_years band above. Bottom line,
+EDT is a candidate for the SL-16 class, not a closed recommendation --
+quoted verbatim from the committed CSV's own recommended-kit
+rationale: "sail infeasible (135..2155 m2 for the 25-yr guideline, solar max..min); EDT (band 3.0..9.2 yr) subject to T7; libration (T7, Pelaez et al. 2000) and plasma Ne (PLACEHOLDER solar-min/max pair, wp13-literature.md Topic 3) remain open -- an honest EDT candidate, not a closed recommendation"
+
+**Class C (controlled reentry, a separate mission class - not a
+sail/EDT kit choice).** Massive/high-risk derelicts where the
+deliverable is a controlled reentry, evaluated on casualty risk,
+ground footprint, delta-v, consent and cost in
+`generated/wp13_classC.md` (data: `generated/wp13_classC.csv`, schema
+1.0), not on a sail/EDT kit trade. Computed controlled-deorbit delta-v
+(single impulsive perigee-lowering burn from the catalog's circular
+orbit to a target perigee of 6371+40 km):
+
+| candidate | v_c [m/s] | delta-v [m/s] |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| Zenit-2 stage (catalog_A) | 7431.2 | 223.4 |
+| Envisat-class (catalog_C) | 7462.2 | 208.3 |
+
+Cross-reference: the eta(i) closed-form derivation is
+`wp13-edt-derivation.md`; the citation pack is `wp13-literature.md`
+(both committed at the repo root).
+
 ## 5. Campaign statistics and cost/FoM
 
 WP5 Monte Carlo: 500 dispersed missions per catalog at fixed master seed
@@ -422,7 +476,7 @@ in `include/`, `src/` and `tools/` carrying the uppercase PLACEHOLDER mark
 only in order to collect and audit it). If a value is listed here, treat
 it as unvalidated until a cited source replaces it.
 
-Total marks: **113**
+Total marks: **130**
 
 | location | line |
 |---|---|
@@ -476,8 +530,11 @@ Total marks: **113**
 | `include/adsc/cost.hpp:86` | double cu_to_musd_high = 0.0;  // PLACEHOLDER (cited range, WP7) |
 | `include/adsc/cost.hpp:88` | // Normalized congestion-weight table (PLACEHOLDER; cite on fill). Peaks |
 | `include/adsc/cost.hpp:101` | // Launch band factor for a target band (PLACEHOLDER model). |
-| `include/adsc/decay.hpp:33` | DebrisCatalog catalog_C();  // CZ upper-stage class (PLACEHOLDER) |
 | `include/adsc/decay.hpp:34` | DebrisCatalog catalog_D();  // US Delta-class stage (PLACEHOLDER) |
+| `include/adsc/decay.hpp:111` | double kit_mass_kg = 20.0;          // PLACEHOLDER EDT kit mass (tether + deployer + electron... |
+| `include/adsc/decay.hpp:112` | double avg_current_a = 2.0;         // PLACEHOLDER average bare-tether collected current, BET... |
+| `include/adsc/decay.hpp:113` | double eta_libration = 0.75;        // PLACEHOLDER libration/duty-cycle efficiency penalty [-... |
+| `include/adsc/decay.hpp:114` | double deploy_failure_prob = 0.05;  // PLACEHOLDER deployment-failure probability [-] (report... |
 | `include/adsc/flux.hpp:21` | // them. All debris-population figures are PLACEHOLDER, marked below and to be |
 | `include/adsc/flux.hpp:26` | // PLACEHOLDER-marked flux parameters (R10); the physical constants (aluminium |
 | `include/adsc/flux.hpp:34` | // Spatial number density of >=1 cm debris [objects / km^3]. PLACEHOLDER -- |
@@ -521,12 +578,26 @@ Total marks: **113**
 | `src/cost.cpp:448` | "/ notes / provenance / PLACEHOLDER caveats /\n" |
 | `src/cost.cpp:460` | "  sum m_i*w(h_i)/C_campaign (spec ?4). The two weightings are PLACEHOLDER and\n" |
 | `src/cost.cpp:467` | "- **currency_anchor** (global): `cu_to_musd_range` -- a PLACEHOLDER cited\n" |
-| `src/decay.cpp:63` | return {"CZ upper stage (PLACEHOLDER)", 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, true}; |
-| `src/decay.cpp:66` | return {"US Delta-class stage (PLACEHOLDER)", 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, true}; |
+| `src/decay.cpp:83` | return {"US Delta-class stage (PLACEHOLDER)", 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, true}; |
 | `src/flux.cpp:81` | "figures are PLACEHOLDER (MASTER-8 / ESA spatial-density class; cite at " |
 | `src/flux.cpp:94` | std::fprintf(f, "PLACEHOLDER spatial densities: average %.1e /km^3, peak " |
 | `src/main.cpp:137` | std::printf("  target inertia diag: %.2f / %.2f / %.2f kg m^2 (PLACEHOLDER ratios)\n", |
 | `src/main_flux.cpp:33` | std::printf("\n[T6] collector exposure (>= 1 cm; PLACEHOLDER densities, cite MASTER-8)\n"); |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:38` | "/cos i/..cos^2 i; libration T7 OPEN - PLACEHOLDER duty factor]"; |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:117` | // kit_mass (edt): NEW EdtConfig::kit_mass_kg, PLACEHOLDER. |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:120` | "\"installed EDT kit mass, PLACEHOLDER (EdtConfig::kit_mass_kg)\"\n", |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:124` | // deploy_risk: EdtConfig::deploy_failure_prob, PLACEHOLDER. Reported |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:128` | "\"PLACEHOLDER EDT deployment-failure probability " |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:203` | "  `EdtConfig::kit_mass_kg` (PLACEHOLDER). value = value_lo = value_hi (a\n" |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:205` | "- `deploy_risk`: `EdtConfig::deploy_failure_prob`, PLACEHOLDER. Reported\n" |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:219` | "libration T7 OPEN - PLACEHOLDER duty factor]`. This states the model scope\n" |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:228` | "PLACEHOLDER duty-cycle knob (`EdtConfig::eta_libration`) -- never claimed\n" |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:229` | "solved. Plasma electron density is a cited PLACEHOLDER parameter, not an\n" |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:366` | "**[CITATION NEEDED - PLACEHOLDER: per-object Ec analysis]**. Both " |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:427` | std::fprintf(f, "/ Zenit-2 / SL-16 (catalog_A) / PLACEHOLDER until WP14 / WP14 cost-range ite... |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:428` | std::fprintf(f, "/ Envisat-class (catalog_C) / PLACEHOLDER until WP14 / WP14 cost-range itemi... |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:466` | //     open risks (T7 libration, plasma Ne PLACEHOLDER). ------------------- |
+| `src/main_kit_trade.cpp:479` | "(T7, Pelaez et al. 2000) and plasma Ne (PLACEHOLDER solar-min/" |
 | `src/main_ladder.cpp:75` | // PLACEHOLDER bare-stage drag cross-sections (WP12 L2). Kept local to this |
 | `src/main_ladder.cpp:78` | constexpr double kSL16AreaM2 = 33.0;  // PLACEHOLDER SL-16 / Zenit-2 bare-stage cross-section... |
 | `src/main_ladder.cpp:79` | constexpr double kSL8AreaM2  = 7.5;   // PLACEHOLDER SL-8 / Kosmos-3M bare-stage cross-sectio... |