fix(miner): resolve prediction correct/incorrect in metrics CLI

[andriypolanski]

Summary

• Closes fix(miner): metrics-cli's collectPredictionMetricRows never resolves correct/incorrect despite calibration-cli.ts already having the outcome join #8315
• Exports buildOutcomeDecisionMap and resolvePredictionCorrectness from calibration.ts (same join rules as buildCalibrationReport; no second implementation).
• collectPredictionMetricRows now pairs each prediction-ledger row with realized pr_outcome events via toPredictionRecords / toOutcomeRecords and sets correct: true | false | undefined.
• runMetrics opens the event ledger (read-only, closed in finally) the same way bare calibration does, then passes resolved rows to renderMinerPredictionMetrics.
• hold and pending predictions leave correct unset; only directional merge/close predictions with a realized merge/close outcome are scored.

Scope

• The PR title follows type(scope): short summary Conventional Commit format, for example fix(api): restore profile access checks.
• This PR is focused and does not mix unrelated backend, UI, MCP, docs, dependency, and deploy changes.
• This follows CONTRIBUTING.md and does not reintroduce GitHub Pages, VitePress, site/, or CNAME.
• I linked a currently open issue this PR resolves (e.g. Closes #123) — a linked open issue is required for every contributor PR.

Validation

• git diff --check
• npm run actionlint
• npm run typecheck
• npm run build:miner
• npx vitest run test/unit/miner-metrics-cli.test.ts test/unit/miner-calibration.test.ts — 20 passed
• CI-scoped Codecov simulation: npm run build:miner && npx vitest run --changed=origin/main --coverage.all=false --coverage — 100% changed lines/branches on calibration.ts + metrics-cli.ts
• npm run test:coverage (full unsharded gate)
• npm run test:ci
• npm run test:workers
• npm run build:mcp
• npm run test:mcp-pack
• npm run ui:openapi:check
• npm run ui:lint
• npm run ui:typecheck
• npm run ui:build
• npm audit --audit-level=moderate
• New or changed behavior has unit/integration tests for new branches, fallback paths, and sanitizer boundaries

If any required check was skipped, explain why:

• Miner-only change (packages/loopover-miner/lib/**). Compiled lib/*.js is gitignored and rebuilt by CI via build:miner. Tests import .ts sources via variable specifiers (same pattern as miner-replay-snapshot.test.ts) so codecov/patch grades the .ts paths under --coverage.all=false.

Safety

• No secrets, wallet details, hotkeys, coldkeys, user PATs, private keys, raw trust scores, private rankings, or private maintainer evidence are exposed.
• Public GitHub text stays sanitized, low-noise, and does not imply compensation guarantees or optimization tactics.
• Auth, cookie, CORS, GitHub App, Cloudflare, or session changes include negative-path tests.
• API/OpenAPI/MCP behavior is updated and tested where needed.
• UI changes use live API data or real empty/error/loading states, not production mock/demo fallbacks.
• Visible UI changes include a UI Evidence section below with JPG/JPEG or PNG screenshots arranged as organized, captioned, clickable thumbnails. SVG screenshots are not used as review evidence. Review-only screenshots or recordings are not committed to the repository.
• Public docs/changelogs are updated where needed; changelogs are only edited for release-prep PRs.

[codecov]

Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 89.61%. Comparing base (f50d010) to head (876e403).
⚠️ Report is 24 commits behind head on main.

Additional details and impacted files

@@            Coverage Diff             @@
##             main    #8510      +/-   ##
==========================================
+ Coverage   81.11%   89.61%   +8.50%     
==========================================
  Files         791       99     -692     
  Lines       79348    22777   -56571     
  Branches    23970     3899   -20071     
==========================================
- Hits        64364    20412   -43952     
+ Misses      12171     2187    -9984     
+ Partials     2813      178    -2635     

Flag	Coverage Δ
shard-1	36.61% <53.84%> (-21.09%)	⬇️
shard-2	63.38% <46.15%> (?)
shard-3	?

Flags with carried forward coverage won't be shown. Click here to find out more.

Files with missing lines	Coverage Δ
packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration.ts	100.00% <100.00%> (ø)
packages/loopover-miner/lib/metrics-cli.ts	100.00% <100.00%> (ø)

... and 692 files with indirect coverage changes

[loopover-orb]

Tip

✅ LoopOver review result - approve/merge recommended

_{Review updated: 2026-07-24 17:27:25 UTC}

4 files · 1 AI reviewer · no blockers · readiness 98/100 · CI green · clean

✅ Suggested Action - Approve/Merge

• safe to merge

Review summary
This PR wires a real outcome join into the miner metrics CLI: it extracts `buildOutcomeDecisionMap`/`resolvePredictionCorrectness` from `calibration.ts` (no duplicate logic), reuses them in `collectPredictionMetricRows`, and has `runMetrics` open/close a second (event) ledger with correct ownership semantics mirroring `withPredictionLedger`. The join, undefined-vs-false `correct` semantics, and ledger lifecycle (only closing ledgers it opened itself) all trace correctly through the diff and the full file content, and are backed by tests exercising confirmed/false/hold/pending/cross-repo cases plus close-ownership. It closes the linked #8315 and is scoped narrowly to that fix.

Nits — 4 non-blocking

• packages/loopover-miner/lib/metrics-cli.ts:63-70 — if `initEventLedger` throws inside the callback passed to `withPredictionLedger`, the prediction ledger still closes correctly, but consider a comment noting the event ledger is guaranteed unassigned in that case (it's correct as written, just non-obvious on first read).
• test/unit/miner-metrics-cli.test.ts and miner-calibration.test.ts import the `.ts` source via a variable specifier to dodge a coverage gap on compiled `.js` — worth a one-line pointer to the tracking issue for removing this workaround once the coverage tool is fixed upstream, per the comment's own mention of `miner-replay-snapshot.test.ts` doing the same.
• Consider tightening `buildOutcomeDecisionMap`'s and `resolvePredictionCorrectness`'s return type alias into a shared named type (e.g. `NormalizedDecision`) instead of repeating the `"merge" | "close" | "hold" | ""` union in both signatures, for readability.
• Nothing else material — the join, ledger lifecycle, and undefined-vs-false semantics all check out against the full file content.

Decision drivers

• ✅ Code review — No blockers (1 reviewer)
• ✅ Gate result — Passing (No configured blocker found.)

Context & advisory signals — never blocks the verdict

Signal	Result	Evidence
Linked issue	✅ Linked	#8315
Related work	✅ No active overlap found	No same-issue or scoped active PR overlap found.
Change scope	✅ 20/20	Low review scope from cached public metadata (1 linked issue).
Validation posture	✅ 25/25	PR body includes validation/test evidence.
Contributor workload	✅ 10/10	Author activity: 220 registered-repo PR(s), 135 merged, 22 issue(s).
Contributor context	✅ Confirmed Gittensor contributor	andriypolanski; Gittensor profile; 220 PR(s), 22 issue(s).
Improvement	✅ Minor	risk: clean · value: minor · LLM: moderate

Linked issue satisfaction

Addressed
The PR reuses calibration.ts's join logic (extracted into buildOutcomeDecisionMap/resolvePredictionCorrectness) inside collectPredictionMetricRows, wires runMetrics to open/close the event ledger read-only, updates the stale header comment, and adds unit tests covering merge/close match, mismatch, hold, pending, cross-repo, and malformed-outcome cases as required.

Review context

• Author: andriypolanski
• Role context: outside_contributor
• Public audience mode: oss maintainer
• Lane context: Repository is configured for direct PR review.
• Public profile languages: Python, TypeScript, Rust, Cuda, JavaScript, Kotlin, MDX, Scala
• Official Gittensor activity: 220 PR(s), 22 issue(s).
• PR-specific overlap: none found.

Contributor next steps

• Keep the PR focused and include validation evidence before maintainer review.

Signal definitions

• Related work = same linked issue, overlapping active PRs, or title/path similarity.
• Change scope = cached public metadata such as size labels, draft state, and review-burden hints.
• Validation posture = whether the PR provides enough public validation/test evidence for maintainer review.
• Contributor workload = public contributor activity and cleanup pressure, not a repo-wide quality failure.
• Contributor context = public GitHub/Gittensor identity context; non-Gittensor status is not a blocker.

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_{🟩 Safe / merged · 🟦 Advisory · 🟨 Held for review · 🟥 Blocked / closed}

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LoopOver approves — the gate is satisfied and CI is green.