Drop prior-year ASEC earnings lookback; fall back to current earnings#204
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The EITC/CTC prior-year-earnings election (the COVID-era "lookback") expired after 2021, so employment_income_last_year / self_employment_income_last_year / previous_year_income_available feed no live PolicyEngine-US formula. Remove the prior-ASEC load + PERIDNUM panel-join (an extra survey-year dependency that only covered the ~50% rotation overlap) and set last-year income to current-year earnings (WSAL_VAL / SEMP_VAL) as a placeholder. previous_year_income_available now tracks whether the row has any earnings, keeping the export columns populated/varying until they are removed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Drop the prior-year ASEC earnings lookback and fall back to current-year earnings.
The EITC/CTC prior-year-earnings election (the COVID-era "lookback") expired after 2021, so
employment_income_last_year,self_employment_income_last_year, andprevious_year_income_availablefeed no live PolicyEngine-US formula. They were recently added (export population) by loading andPERIDNUM-panel-joining the prior ASEC — an extra survey-year dependency that only covered the ~50% rotation overlap, churned the processed-cache version, and would require the build to fetch ASECyear-1in addition to the spine year.Changes
_load_previous_cps_asec_persons_rawand the panel-join in_attach_previous_year_income._attach_previous_year_incomenow sets*_income_last_yearto current-year earnings (WSAL_VAL/SEMP_VAL), andprevious_year_income_availableto whether the row has any earnings — keeping the three export columns populated and varying (no support-gate regression) without the prior ASEC.CPS_ASEC_PROCESSED_CACHE_VERSION(logic changed).These are placeholders to remove entirely once the export contract no longer requires the columns.
Blast radius
_load_previous_cps_asec_persons_rawand the 3-arg_attach_previous_year_incomehad a single call site each (both incps.py); no other references. Removes the ASECyear-1download/parse fromload_cps_asec.Tests
test_load_cps_asec_attaches_previous_year_income_from_prior_asecwithtest_load_cps_asec_falls_back_last_year_income_to_current_earnings(last-year income == currentWSAL_VAL/SEMP_VAL;available== has-earnings). Passes.test_cps_source_provider.py(…repeat_loads_are_deterministic…,…ssn_card_type…) are pre-existing onorigin/main— they need raw CPS ASEC data / a fixture predating the export-support columns, not affected by this change.Context: #200 (post-collapse calibration/target fixes). Surfaced while auditing why a prior-year ASEC was being loaded.