Document long-run economic projections methodology (#1379)#1701
Open
vahid-ahmadi wants to merge 1 commit into
Open
Document long-run economic projections methodology (#1379)#1701vahid-ahmadi wants to merge 1 commit into
vahid-ahmadi wants to merge 1 commit into
Conversation
The 2031+ growth values in yoy_growth.yaml had a one-line header comment naming the steady-state assumptions but didn't explain where the year-by- year ramp values came from (e.g. RPI 2.30% in 2031 -> 2.39% by 2035). #1379 asked for that to be documented. - Expand the file header to describe how each long-run series is built (CPI pinned to BoE target, RPI/CPIH/earnings ramp linearly from the last EFO value to a stated steady state, then flat through 2073) and the OBR publications the steady-state numbers come from. - Add a parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/README.md tabulating every growth series with its OBR/ONS source and giving a refresh procedure for when a new EFO is published, including the call to create_economic_assumption_indices.py.
This file contains hidden or bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment
1 participant
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.This suggestion is invalid because no changes were made to the code.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is closed.Suggestions cannot be applied while viewing a subset of changes.Only one suggestion per line can be applied in a batch.Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.Applying suggestions on deleted lines is not supported.You must change the existing code in this line in order to create a valid suggestion.Outdated suggestions cannot be applied.This suggestion has been applied or marked resolved.Suggestions cannot be applied from pending reviews.Suggestions cannot be applied on multi-line comments.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is queued to merge.Suggestion cannot be applied right now. Please check back later.
Summary
yoy_growth.yamlhad a one-line header saying "2031+ are OBR long-run equilibrium assumptions" but didn't explain where the specific year-by-year values (e.g. RPI 2.30% in 2031 ramping to 2.39%) came from. Document and verify source of long-run economic projections (2031+) #1379 asked for that to be made explicit.What this PR does:
yoy_growth.yamldescribing how each long-run series is built — CPI pinned to the BoE 2% target on 2031-01-01; RPI/CPIH/earnings ramped linearly from the final EFO value to a stated steady state (RPI/CPIH 2.39%, earnings 3.83%), then held flat through 2073 — with links to the OBR Fiscal Risks publication and the long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology.parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/README.mdtabulating every growth series with its OBR/ONS source, walking through the three-horizon construction (outturn / EFO forecast / long-run equilibrium), and giving an explicit refresh procedure for when a new EFO is published — including runningcreate_economic_assumption_indices.pyto regenerate downstream cumulative indices.The numerical values themselves are unchanged; this PR is documentation-only.
Test plan
yoy_growth.yamlstill parses (yaml.safe_load).Microsimulation().calculate(\"income_tax\", 2025).sum()runs successfully (~£294.7bn).🤖 Generated with Claude Code