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Add Warm Home Discount planning doc (#502)#1735

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Add Warm Home Discount planning doc (#502)#1735
vahid-ahmadi wants to merge 1 commit into
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vahid-ahmadi/issue-502-warm-home-discount-plan

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Summary

  • Warm Home Discount #502 noted that WHD criteria vary by energy company and aren't specified ahead of time. Persist the modelling plan in-repo so the complexity is documented before any code goes in.
  • New page at docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md covering:
    • the two-group structure: auto Core Group 1 (keyed on Pension Credit Guarantee Credit, ~1m households) and EPC-based Core Group 2 in England (~2m households) under SI 2022/687; application-based Core 2 in Scotland and Wales under SI 2022/690;
    • three-phase implementation: Core 1 first (cleanest target — derives from existing pension_credit machinery), then EPC-keyed Core 2 in England, then Scotland/Wales with a stochastic would_claim flag;
    • alternative defensible v1 scope: "Core 1 only, document Core 2 as under-imputed" — captures the most policy-relevant slice at minimal modelling cost;
    • data needs (Ofgem WHD annual reports, DWP PC caseload, VOA/ONS EPC distribution for Phase 2);
    • open questions on scheme-year vs simulation-year semantics and whether Core 1 needs a take-up gate (recommendation: no, since payment is automatic).

Pure documentation; no code changes.

Test plan

  • Markdown lints cleanly.
  • Docs build job picks up the new page under programs/gov/ofgem/.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

#502 notes that the WHD has criteria varying by energy company and
isn't specified ahead of time. Persist the modelling plan in-repo so
the actual complexity is documented (and a defensible v1 scope is
agreed before any code goes in).

The page covers:

- the two-group structure (auto Core Group 1 keyed on Pension Credit
  Guarantee Credit, EPC-based Core Group 2 in England with the
  2022-23 reform under SI 2022/687, application-based Core 2 in
  Scotland and Wales under SI 2022/690),
- the three-phase implementation route: Core 1 (~1m households, the
  cleanest target) first, then EPC-keyed Core 2 in England with the
  EPC + qualifying-benefit logic, then Scotland/Wales application-
  based with a stochastic would_claim flag,
- an alternative v1 scope ("Core 1 only, document Core 2 as
  under-imputed") that captures the most policy-relevant slice at
  minimal modelling cost,
- data needs (Ofgem annual WHD reports, DWP Pension Credit caseload,
  VOA/ONS EPC distribution for Phase 2),
- open questions on scheme-year vs simulation-year semantics and
  whether Core 1 needs a take-up gate (recommendation: no).
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