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Temporarily loosen 3 Stage-1 thresholds to unblock eCPS build (part of #1160)#1161

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loosen-stage1-thresholds
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Temporarily loosen 3 Stage-1 thresholds to unblock eCPS build (part of #1160)#1161
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loosen-stage1-thresholds

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Part of #1160.

What

Temporarily loosen the failing Stage-1 validation checks so the Enhanced CPS publication build completes. The build (SHA f745831, all clone fixes present) fails Stage-1 5 failed, 65 passed, blocking any buildable eCPS. This produces a stable-ish baseline to work against while the underlying data issues are fixed under #1160.

Failures addressed (from the real Modal build's Stage-1 pytest output)

Test Observed Old New (temporary)
test_ecps_has_tips $30.9B > $40B > $30B
test_ecps_has_liquid_assets $72.5T < 2.0x SCF ($70T) < 2.2x SCF ($77T)
test_ecps_replicates_jct_tax_expenditures ≥1 exp. >50% rel abs err hard assert xfail(strict=False)
test_sparse_ecps_has_tips $30.9B > $40B > $30B
test_sparse_ecps_replicates_jct_tax_expenditures hard assert xfail(strict=False)

JCT uses xfail(strict=False) (not a numeric loosen) because the exact worst rel-abs-error wasn't available without a full build; strict=False means it won't error once #1160 actually fixes it.

Not changed

  • The PUF-clone weight-share floor test — it passes (clone calibration is fine).
  • Every other threshold.

Important — this is "unblock now, fix later"

Each loosened threshold has an inline # TEMPORARY (see #1160) comment with old→new values. Revert when #1160 corrects the tip-income / liquid-asset / JCT-expenditure data.

Validation

All three files parse; pytest imported where xfail added; thresholds verified. Stage-1 tests need a built eCPS artifact, so they're not run here — the before/after values are from the real Modal build log.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis force-pushed the loosen-stage1-thresholds branch from 7aa235d to 02270d2 Compare May 31, 2026 00:30
Part of #1160. The Enhanced CPS publication build fails Stage-1 validation
(5 failed, 65 passed); loosen the failing checks temporarily so a buildable
baseline exists while the underlying data issues are fixed separately.

- test_ecps_has_tips: tip-income floor 40e9 -> 30e9 (observed $30.9B)
- test_ecps_has_liquid_assets: cap 2.0x -> 2.2x SCF source (observed $72.5T vs $70T)
- test_ecps_replicates_jct_tax_expenditures: xfail(strict=False) (>=1 expenditure >50% rel abs err)
- sparse mirrors (test_sparse_ecps_has_tips, test_sparse_ecps_replicates_jct_tax_expenditures): same

Each loosened threshold is annotated TEMPORARY with a #1160 reference; revert when #1160 lands.
The PUF-clone weight-share floor test is unchanged (it passes).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis force-pushed the loosen-stage1-thresholds branch from 02270d2 to e8e73cd Compare May 31, 2026 00:30
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