PyPSA · lindnemi · Jan 30, 2026 · Jan 12, 2026 · Jan 12, 2026 · Jan 12, 2026
diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore
@@ -28,12 +28,6 @@ gurobi.log
 # Allowlist a small subset under data/pypsa-de.
 # Important: parent directories must be un-ignored for negations to take effect.
 !/data/pypsa-de/
-/data/pypsa-de/*
-!/data/pypsa-de/custom_costs_nep_2021.csv
-!/data/pypsa-de/custom_costs_nep_2023.csv
-!/data/pypsa-de/offshore_connection_points.csv
-!/data/pypsa-de/wasserstoff_kernnetz/
-!/data/pypsa-de/wasserstoff_kernnetz/**
 /cutouts
 /tmp
 doc/_build

diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -1,4 +1,12 @@
 # Changelog
+- added 2 delay years to the offshore NEP, s.t. capacity in 2030 is ~20GW
+- improved script name `modify_industry_demand` -> `modify_industry_production`
+- excluded international shipping from DE-specific CO2 emisisons
+- improved land transport shares, and some RES constraints
+- disabled ptes before 2035
+- add function to limit cross border electricity flows, to comply with the 0.7 security margin and the 0.7 EU trade capacity goals
+- Added an option to source industry energy demand from UBA MWMS (Projektionsbericht 2025) for the years 2025-2035
+- renamed some scripts
 - Upstream: PyPSA-Eur adopted a new functionality for overwriting costs. PyPSA-DE follows this convention now. As a consequence, the `costs:horizon:optimist/mean/pessimist` is no longer available. `Mean` will be provided exclusively from now on. Also, the costs assumptions for onwind turbines changed sligthly. Furthermore, "costs:NEP_year:2021/2023" is no longer available, instead one of the  custom_cost files for these NEP years provided in the `data/pypsa-de` folder has to be specified.
 - The `ariadne-data` folder has been moved and renamed to `data/pypsa-de` to conform with the syntax of `scripts/pypsa-de`
 - Bugfix: Enforce stricter power import limit to avoid that import from one country compensate from exports to another

diff --git a/Snakefile b/Snakefile
@@ -654,6 +654,13 @@ rule modify_prenetwork:
         bev_charge_rate=config_provider("sector", "bev_charge_rate"),
         bev_energy=config_provider("sector", "bev_energy"),
         bev_dsm_availability=config_provider("sector", "bev_dsm_availability"),
+        uba_for_industry=config_provider("pypsa-de", "uba_for_industry", "enable"),
+        scale_industry_non_energy=config_provider(
+            "pypsa-de", "uba_for_industry", "scale_industry_non_energy"
+        ),
+        limit_cross_border_flows_ac=config_provider(
+            "pypsa-de", "limit_cross_border_flows_ac"
+        ),
     input:
         network=resources(
             "networks/base_s_{clusters}_{opts}_{sector_opts}_{planning_horizons}_brownfield.nc"
@@ -675,13 +682,20 @@ rule modify_prenetwork:
         industrial_demand=resources(
             "industrial_energy_demand_base_s_{clusters}_{planning_horizons}.csv"
         ),
+        industrial_production_per_country_tomorrow=resources(
+            "industrial_production_per_country_tomorrow_{planning_horizons}-modified.csv"
+        ),
+        industry_sector_ratios=resources(
+            "industry_sector_ratios_{planning_horizons}.csv"
+        ),
         pop_weighted_energy_totals=resources(
             "pop_weighted_energy_totals_s_{clusters}.csv"
         ),
         shipping_demand=resources("shipping_demand_s_{clusters}.csv"),
         regions_onshore=resources("regions_onshore_base_s_{clusters}.geojson"),
         regions_offshore=resources("regions_offshore_base_s_{clusters}.geojson"),
         offshore_connection_points="data/pypsa-de/offshore_connection_points.csv",
+        new_industrial_energy_demand="data/pypsa-de/UBA_Projektionsbericht2025_Abbildung31_MWMS.csv",
     output:
         network=resources(
             "networks/base_s_{clusters}_{opts}_{sector_opts}_{planning_horizons}_final.nc"
@@ -695,7 +709,7 @@ rule modify_prenetwork:
         "scripts/pypsa-de/modify_prenetwork.py"
 
 
-ruleorder: modify_industry_demand > build_industrial_production_per_country_tomorrow
+ruleorder: modify_industry_production > build_industrial_production_per_country_tomorrow
 
 
 rule modify_existing_heating:
@@ -740,7 +754,7 @@ rule build_existing_chp_de:
         "scripts/pypsa-de/build_existing_chp_de.py"
 
 
-rule modify_industry_demand:
+rule modify_industry_production:
     params:
         reference_scenario=config_provider("pypsa-de", "reference_scenario"),
     input:
@@ -755,9 +769,9 @@ rule modify_industry_demand:
     resources:
         mem_mb=1000,
     log:
-        logs("modify_industry_demand_{planning_horizons}.log"),
+        logs("modify_industry_production_{planning_horizons}.log"),
     script:
-        "scripts/pypsa-de/modify_industry_demand.py"
+        "scripts/pypsa-de/modify_industry_production.py"
 
 
 rule build_wasserstoff_kernnetz:

diff --git a/config/config.de.yaml b/config/config.de.yaml
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#run
 run:
-  prefix: 20251017_improve_power_limits
+  prefix: 20260114_limit_cross_border_flows
   name:
   # - ExPol
   - KN2045_Mix
@@ -36,7 +36,20 @@ pypsa-de:
   reference_scenario: KN2045_Mix
   region: Deutschland
   ageb_for_mobility: true # In 2020 use AGEB data for final energy demand and KBA for vehicles
-  uba_for_mobility: false # For 2025–2035 use MWMS scenario from UBA Projektionsbericht 2025
+  uba_for_mobility: # Available for 2025–2035; uses MWMS scenario from UBA Projektionsbericht 2025
+  - 2025
+  uba_for_industry: # Available for 2025–2035; uses MWMS scenario from UBA Projektionsbericht 2025
+    scale_non_energy: false # Scale non-energy demand directly proportional to energy demand
+    enable: # Allowed values are "false" or a subset of [2025, 2030, 2035]
+    - 2025
+  limit_cross_border_flows_ac:  # relevant if only one node per country is used
+    2020: 0.4
+    2025: 0.4
+    2030: 0.45
+    2035: 0.49 # = 0.7 * 0.7 <=> security margin * CEP target 
+    2040: 0.49
+    2045: 0.49
+    2050: 0.49
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#foresight
 foresight: myopic
@@ -261,7 +274,12 @@ first_technology_occurrence:
     H2 pipeline: 2025
     H2 Electrolysis: 2025
     H2 pipeline retrofitted: 2025
-
+    urban central water pits charger: 2035
+    urban central water pits discharger: 2035
+  Store:
+    urban central water pits: 2035
+  Bus:
+    urban central water pits: 2035
 costs:
   custom_cost_fn: data/pypsa-de/custom_costs_nep_2023.csv
   transmission: "overhead" # either overhead line ("overhead") or underground cable ("underground")
@@ -336,44 +354,30 @@ sector:
     2045: 0.36
     2050: 0.43
   # For Germany these settings get overwritten in build_exogenous_mobility_data
+  # Essentially all PyPSA-EUR settings but with a little bit of hydrogen to allow for the later overwrites
   land_transport_fuel_cell_share:
-    2020: 0.01
-    2025: 0.01
-    2030: 0.02
-    2035: 0.03
-    2040: 0.03
-    2045: 0.03
-    2050: 0.03
+    2020: 0.001
+    2025: 0.001
+    2030: 0.001
+    2035: 0.001
+    2040: 0.001
+    2045: 0.001
+    2050: 0.001
   land_transport_electric_share:
-    2020: 0.05
-    2025: 0.15
-    2030: 0.3
-    2035: 0.45
-    2040: 0.72
-    2045: 0.87
-    2050: 0.97
+    2050: 0.999
   land_transport_ice_share:
-    2020: 0.94
-    2025: 0.84
-    2030: 0.68
-    2035: 0.52
-    2040: 0.25
-    2045: 0.1
-    2050: 0.0
+    2020: 0.999
+    2025: 0.949
+    2030: 0.799
+    2035: 0.549
+    2040: 0.299
+    2045: 0.149
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#industry
 industry:
   steam_biomass_fraction: 0.4
   steam_hydrogen_fraction: 0.3
   steam_electricity_fraction: 0.3
-  St_primary_fraction:
-    2020: 0.6
-    2025: 0.55
-    2030: 0.5
-    2035: 0.45
-    2040: 0.4
-    2045: 0.35
-    2050: 0.3
   DRI_fraction:
     2020: 0
     2025: 0
@@ -394,22 +398,6 @@ industry:
     2040: 0.6
     2045: 0.5
     2050: 0.4
-  HVC_mechanical_recycling_fraction:
-    2020: 0.12
-    2025: 0.15
-    2030: 0.18
-    2035: 0.21
-    2040: 0.24
-    2045: 0.27
-    2050: 0.30
-  HVC_chemical_recycling_fraction:
-    2020: 0.0
-    2025: 0.0
-    2030: 0.04
-    2035: 0.08
-    2040: 0.12
-    2045: 0.16
-    2050: 0.20
   # 15 Mt HVC production (from IDEES) -> 6 Mt Plastikabfälle,
   # To substitute for other waste, assume all Plastikabfall is used energetically whereas in reality ~40% is recycled
   # see https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-ariadne/pull/292
@@ -468,7 +456,7 @@ solving:
         onwind:
           DE:
             2020: 54.5
-            2025: 69
+            2025: 68  # # Abb. 4_9 https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2025/2025-28_DE_JAW25/A-EW_391_Die_Energiewende_in_Deutschland_Stand_der_Dinge_2025_WEB.pdf
             2030: 115 # EEG2023 Ziel für 2030
             2035: 160 # EEG2023 Ziel für 2040
             2040: 250
@@ -478,15 +466,15 @@ solving:
           DE:
             2020: 7.8
             2025: 11.3
-            2030: 29.3 # uba Projektionsbericht and NEP without delayed BalWin 3
-            2035: 50 # Planned projects until 2035 (offshore_connection_points.csv) -1.3 GW for potential delays
+            2030: 24   # very optimistic upper ceiling to "Mittelfristprognose zur deutschlandweiten Stromerzeugung"
+            2035: 50   # Planned projects until 2035 (offshore_connection_points.csv) -1.3 GW for potential delays
             2040: 65   # Planned projects until 2040 -1.5 GW for potential retirments
             2045: 70
             2050: 70
         solar:
           DE:
             2020: 53.7
-            2025: 110 # EEG2023; assumes for 2026: 128 GW, assuming a fair share reached by end of 2025
+            2025: 119 # Abb. 4_9 https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2025/2025-28_DE_JAW25/A-EW_391_Die_Energiewende_in_Deutschland_Stand_der_Dinge_2025_WEB.pdf
             2030: 235 # PV Ziel 2030 + 20 GW
             2035: 400
             2040: 800
@@ -502,6 +490,9 @@ solving:
             2040: 50000
             2045: 80000
             2050: 80000
+        urban central water tanks:
+          DE:
+            2025: 120 # GWh, https://www.hamburg-institut.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Referenzblatt_SysGF-1.pdf
       Link:
         methanolisation:
           DE:
@@ -530,21 +521,20 @@ solving:
       Generator:
         onwind:
           DE:
+            2025: 67    # Abb. 4_9 https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2025/2025-28_DE_JAW25/A-EW_391_Die_Energiewende_in_Deutschland_Stand_der_Dinge_2025_WEB.pdf
             2030: 99    # Wind-an-Land Law 2028
             2035: 115   # Wind-an-Land Law 2030
             2040: 157   # target 2035
             2045: 160   # target 2040
         offwind:
           DE:
-            2030: 22.5   # 75% Wind-auf-See Law
+            2030: 18   # Mittelfristprognose zur deutschlandweiten Stromerzeugung
             2035: 35
             2040: 42
             2045: 50
         solar:
           DE:
-              # EEG2023; Ziel for 2024: 88 GW and for 2026: 128 GW,
-              # assuming at least 1/3 of difference reached in 2025
-            2025: 101
+            2025: 118 # Abb. 4_9 https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2025/2025-28_DE_JAW25/A-EW_391_Die_Energiewende_in_Deutschland_Stand_der_Dinge_2025_WEB.pdf
         Link:
           H2 Electrolysis:
             DE:
@@ -601,8 +591,8 @@ solving:
       # boundary condition lower?
         DE:
           2020: 0
-          2025: 0
-          2030: 10
+          2025: 6
+          2030: 20
           2035: 105
           2040: 200
           2045: 300
@@ -720,7 +710,7 @@ onshore_nep_force:
 offshore_nep_force:
   cutin_year: 2025
   cutout_year: 2030
-  delay_years: 0
+  delay_years: 2
 
 scale_capacity:
   2020:

diff --git a/data/pypsa-de/UBA_Projektionsbericht2025_Abbildung31_MWMS.csv b/data/pypsa-de/UBA_Projektionsbericht2025_Abbildung31_MWMS.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+carrier,2025,2030,2035
+fossil,324,258,191
+industry electricity,211,234,249
+solid biomass for industry,31,35,31
+H2 for industry,0,6,42
+low-temperature heat for industry,48,59,63
diff --git a/data/pypsa-de/custom_costs_nep_2021.csv b/data/pypsa-de/custom_costs_nep_2021.csv
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ all,hydrogen storage underground,investment,0.55,EUR/kWh,Langfristszenarien Szen
 2020,coal,fuel,5.7048,EUR2020/MWh,Ariadne,"$2020 = 0.8775 EUR2020, 1t = 8.06 MWh"
 2020,decentral air-sourced heat pump,investment,1685,EUR2020/kW_th,https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2024/01/Ariadne-Analyse_HeizkostenEmissionenGebaeude_Januar2024.pdf https://www.enpal.de/waermepumpe/kosten/ https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/BDEW-HKV_Altbau.pdf
 2020,decentral ground-sourced heat pump,investment,2774,EUR2020/kW_th,https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2024/01/Ariadne-Analyse_HeizkostenEmissionenGebaeude_Januar2024.pdf https://www.enpal.de/waermepumpe/kosten/ https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/BDEW-HKV_Altbau.pdf
-2025,gas,fuel,40,EUR/MWh_th,Ariadne,
+2025,gas,fuel,30,EUR2020/MWh_th,Ariadne,Näherungsweise Durchschnittspreis 2025 (Annahme 36€) korrigiert für Inflation (Annahme 20%)
 2025,oil,fuel,32.9876,EUR2020/MWh,Ariadne,"$2020 = 0.8775 EUR2020, 1bbl = 1.6998MWh"
 2025,coal,fuel,10.6694,EUR2020/MWh,Ariadne,"$2020 = 0.8775 EUR2020, 1t = 8.06 MWh"
 2025,decentral air-sourced heat pump,investment,1604,EUR2020/kW_th,https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2024/01/Ariadne-Analyse_HeizkostenEmissionenGebaeude_Januar2024.pdf https://www.enpal.de/waermepumpe/kosten/ https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/BDEW-HKV_Altbau.pdf and cost reduction from DEA

diff --git a/data/pypsa-de/custom_costs_nep_2023.csv b/data/pypsa-de/custom_costs_nep_2023.csv
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ all,hydrogen storage underground,investment,0.55,EUR/kWh,Langfristszenarien Szen
 2020,coal,fuel,5.7048,EUR2020/MWh,Ariadne,"$2020 = 0.8775 EUR2020, 1t = 8.06 MWh"
 2020,decentral air-sourced heat pump,investment,1685,EUR2020/kW_th,https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2024/01/Ariadne-Analyse_HeizkostenEmissionenGebaeude_Januar2024.pdf https://www.enpal.de/waermepumpe/kosten/ https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/BDEW-HKV_Altbau.pdf
 2020,decentral ground-sourced heat pump,investment,2774,EUR2020/kW_th,https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2024/01/Ariadne-Analyse_HeizkostenEmissionenGebaeude_Januar2024.pdf https://www.enpal.de/waermepumpe/kosten/ https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/BDEW-HKV_Altbau.pdf
-2025,gas,fuel,40,EUR/MWh_th,Ariadne,
+2025,gas,fuel,30,EUR2020/MWh_th,Ariadne,Näherungsweise Durchschnittspreis 2025 (Annahme 36€) korrigiert für Inflation (Annahme 20%)
 2025,oil,fuel,32.9876,EUR2020/MWh,Ariadne,"$2020 = 0.8775 EUR2020, 1bbl = 1.6998MWh"
 2025,coal,fuel,10.6694,EUR2020/MWh,Ariadne,"$2020 = 0.8775 EUR2020, 1t = 8.06 MWh"
 2025,decentral air-sourced heat pump,investment,1604,EUR2020/kW_th,https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2024/01/Ariadne-Analyse_HeizkostenEmissionenGebaeude_Januar2024.pdf https://www.enpal.de/waermepumpe/kosten/ https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/BDEW-HKV_Altbau.pdf and cost reduction from DEA

diff --git a/scripts/process_cost_data.py b/scripts/process_cost_data.py
@@ -105,6 +105,16 @@ def prepare_costs(
         DataFrame containing the prepared cost data
 
     """
+
+    def _convert_to_MW(cost_df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        # correct units to MW and EUR
+        cost_df.loc[cost_df.unit.str.contains("/kW"), "value"] *= 1e3
+        cost_df.loc[cost_df.unit.str.contains("/GW"), "value"] /= 1e3
+
+        cost_df.unit = cost_df.unit.str.replace("/kW", "/MW")
+        cost_df.unit = cost_df.unit.str.replace("/GW", "/MW")
+        return cost_df
+
     # Load custom costs and categorize into two sets:
     # - Raw attributes: overwritten before cost preparation
     # - Prepared attributes: overwritten after cost preparation
@@ -115,9 +125,12 @@ def prepare_costs(
             index_col=["technology", "parameter"],
         ).query("planning_horizon in [@planning_horizon, 'all']")
 
+        custom_costs = _convert_to_MW(custom_costs)
+
         custom_costs = custom_costs.drop("planning_horizon", axis=1).value.unstack(
             level=1
         )
+
         prepared_attrs = ["marginal_cost", "capital_cost"]
         raw_attrs = list(set(custom_costs.columns) - set(prepared_attrs))
         custom_raw = custom_costs[raw_attrs].dropna(axis=0, how="all")
@@ -128,12 +141,7 @@ def prepare_costs(
         if key in config:
             config["overwrites"][key] = config[key]
 
-    # correct units to MW and EUR
-    costs.loc[costs.unit.str.contains("/kW"), "value"] *= 1e3
-    costs.loc[costs.unit.str.contains("/GW"), "value"] /= 1e3
-
-    costs.unit = costs.unit.str.replace("/kW", "/MW")
-    costs.unit = costs.unit.str.replace("/GW", "/MW")
+    costs = _convert_to_MW(costs)
 
     # min_count=1 is important to generate NaNs which are then filled by fillna
     costs = costs.value.unstack(level=1).groupby("technology").sum(min_count=1)