oddsense

Agent-native CLI for prediction market intelligence.

oddsense is an agent-native CLI intelligence layer for prediction markets. It does NOT re-implement market data fetching. Instead, it composes with existing CLIs (starting with polymarket-cli) and adds the intelligence layer on top: cross-platform aggregation, real-world sentiment analysis, divergence detection, and arbitrage discovery.

Think of it as: polymarket-cli is the data pipe. oddsense is the brain.

Core Philosophy (from Karpathy)

"CLIs are super exciting precisely because they are a 'legacy' technology, which means AI agents can natively and easily use them, combine them... Even more powerful when you use it as a module of bigger pipelines."

oddsense embodies this. It's a CLI that agents can install, compose, and build dashboards/apps on top of. It treats polymarket-cli (and future CLIs like kalshi, metaculus) as upstream data sources and focuses exclusively on what they don't provide: analysis, enrichment, signals, and cross-source intelligence.

Every command outputs structured JSON, is composable via unix pipes, and ships with a SKILL.md so AI agents (Claude Code, Codex, etc.) can use it out of the box.

Install

From crates.io

cargo install oddsense

From source

git clone https://github.com/jayeshvpatil/oddsense.git
cd oddsense
cargo install --path .

Prerequisites

• polymarket-cli — required for Polymarket data:

  cargo install --git https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli.git

• (Optional) NewsAPI key — for news sentiment in enrich and divergence commands

Quick Start

# Search prediction markets across all platforms
oddsense search "bitcoin" --limit 5

# Search with semantic expansion (finds "artificial intelligence" when you search "AI")
oddsense search "AI regulation" --sources kalshi --limit 10

# Filter by category
oddsense search "crypto" --category economics --limit 5

# LLM-powered smart search (requires Anthropic API key)
oddsense search "election 2028" --smart --limit 10

# Get sentiment signals
oddsense enrich "AI regulation" --sources reddit

# Find where market odds diverge from sentiment
oddsense divergence "Trump" --explain

# Surface trending markets by volume
oddsense signals --min-volume 50000

# Find cross-platform arbitrage (Polymarket vs Kalshi)
oddsense arbitrage --min-spread 5

# Compare the same question across platforms
oddsense compare "bitcoin" --sources polymarket,kalshi

Commands

Command	Description
search <query>	Search prediction markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus with semantic search
enrich <query>	Fetch sentiment signals (news + Reddit)
divergence <query>	Find markets where odds diverge from sentiment
signals	Surface trending markets by volume/momentum
arbitrage [query]	Find cross-platform pricing differences
compare <query>	Side-by-side comparison across platforms

Search Flags

--sources <list>      polymarket,kalshi,metaculus,all (default: all)
--category <cat>      Filter: politics, economics, technology, crypto, sports, science, geopolitics, culture
--limit <n>           Max results (default: 10)
--sort <field>        Sort by: volume_num, created_at (default: volume_num)

Global Flags

--format json|table   Output format (default: table)
--smart, -s           LLM-powered query expansion + result reranking (requires API key)
--quiet, -q           Suppress non-data output (stderr)
--raw                 Raw JSON, no pretty-printing
--config <path>       Custom config file path

Configuration

Create ~/.config/oddsense/config.toml (macOS: ~/Library/Application Support/com.oddsense.oddsense/config.toml):

[api_keys]
newsapi = "your-newsapi-key-here"
anthropic = "sk-ant-..."          # for --smart mode

[defaults]
format = "table"
refresh_seconds = 60
sources = ["polymarket"]

[llm]
provider = "anthropic"
model = "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001"  # optional

API Keys

Source	Key Required?	How to get
Polymarket	No	Free via polymarket-cli
Kalshi	No	Free public API
Reddit	No	Free public JSON API
NewsAPI	Yes	newsapi.org (free tier: 100 req/day)
Metaculus	Yes	API requires auth (gracefully skipped if unavailable)
Anthropic	For --smart	console.anthropic.com or set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY env var

Agent Usage

This CLI is designed for AI agents. Every command supports --format json --quiet --raw for clean machine-readable output:

# Agent pipeline: find divergences and extract actionable ones
oddsense divergence "AI" --format json --quiet --raw | \
  jq '.divergences[] | select(.divergence_score > 50)'

# Agent pipeline: cross-platform spread analysis
oddsense arbitrage --format json --quiet --raw | \
  jq '.opportunities[] | {topic, spread, highest: .highest.source, lowest: .lowest.source}'

# Combine with other CLIs
oddsense search "crypto" --format json --quiet --raw | \
  jq -r '.markets[].title' | head -5

See SKILL.md for full agent instructions.

Architecture

oddsense follows a composition over reimplementation pattern. For Polymarket, we shell out to polymarket-cli and parse its JSON output — no need to reimplement auth, CLOB interaction, or API wrappers. For platforms without existing CLIs (Kalshi, Metaculus), we call their APIs directly.

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                         oddsense                             │
│                    (intelligence layer)                       │
│                                                              │
│  ┌───────────┐ ┌────────────┐ ┌────────────┐ ┌───────────┐  │
│  │ Semantic  │ │ Sentiment  │ │ Divergence │ │ Arbitrage │  │
│  │ Search    │ │ Engine     │ │ Detector   │ │ Finder    │  │
│  │ + LLM    │ │ (negation) │ │            │ │           │  │
│  └─────┬─────┘ └─────┬──────┘ └─────┬──────┘ └─────┬─────┘  │
│        │              │              │              │         │
│  ┌─────┴──────────────┴──────────────┴──────────────┴──────┐ │
│  │              Unified Market Schema                       │ │
│  │      (normalize all sources + category tagging)          │ │
│  └─────┬──────────────┬──────────────────────┬─────────────┘ │
│        │              │                      │               │
│  ┌─────┴─────┐  ┌─────┴──────┐  ┌───────────┴────────────┐  │
│  │Polymarket │  │  Kalshi    │  │   Metaculus            │  │
│  │ Adapter   │  │  Adapter   │  │   Adapter              │  │
│  │(via CLI)  │  │ (via API)  │  │   (via API)            │  │
│  └───────────┘  └────────────┘  └────────────────────────┘  │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
        │               │                      │
   polymarket-cli    Kalshi API           Metaculus API
   (subprocess)      (direct HTTP)        (direct HTTP)

Source Adapters

Adapter	Method	Auth
Polymarket	Shells out to polymarket-cli subprocess, parses JSON	None (public)
Kalshi	Direct REST API (api.elections.kalshi.com) with semantic search	None (read-only)
Metaculus	Direct REST API (metaculus.com/api2)	Required (skipped if unavailable)
Sentiment	NewsAPI + Reddit public JSON API, negation-aware scoring	NewsAPI key (optional)
Arbitrage	Jaro-Winkler fuzzy title matching across all sources	N/A
LLM (smart)	Anthropic Claude API for query expansion + reranking	Anthropic API key

Project Structure

src/
  adapters/        # Market source adapters (polymarket, kalshi, metaculus)
  search/          # Synonym expansion, relevance scoring, category tagging
  llm/             # LLM integration (Anthropic) for --smart mode
  analysis/        # Divergence detection, arbitrage matching
  sentiment/       # News + Reddit sentiment scoring (with negation handling)
  cli/             # Command handlers
  output/          # JSON + table formatters
  config.rs        # Config file management + LLM config

Use Cases

Developers / Builders

• "Build me a dashboard showing all AI-related markets above $1M volume" — an agent builds it in minutes using oddsense search + signals
• "Monitor these 5 markets and Slack me when odds shift more than 10%" — an agent writes the script with oddsense in a cron loop

Researchers / Analysts

• "Pull all election markets, cross-reference with polling data, show me where they diverge" — oddsense divergence does exactly this
• "Give me a weekly report of the biggest movers in crypto prediction markets" — pipe oddsense signals into a report template

Traders

• "Compare odds across Polymarket and Kalshi for arbitrage" — oddsense arbitrage finds the cross-platform spreads
• "Watch these markets and alert me when probability drops below 30%" — combine oddsense search --format json with a threshold script

Content Creators

• "Generate a daily Twitter thread of the most interesting prediction market moves" — an agent composes oddsense signals + enrich into a thread

License

MIT