MOBT-1069: Using adjacent validity times in SAMOS#2310
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gavinevans merged 11 commits intometoppv:masterfrom Feb 20, 2026
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MOBT-1069: Using adjacent validity times in SAMOS#2310gavinevans merged 11 commits intometoppv:masterfrom
gavinevans merged 11 commits intometoppv:masterfrom
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…ord to include neighbouring validity times in the coefficient estimation.
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… range are not included in the returned cubes.
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Thanks @bayliffe 👍
I've added a few comments related to a single typo, which reoccurs in all the adjacent_range docstrings, and suggested whether the forecast period corruption should/could be documented in a unit test.
Co-authored-by: gavinevans <gavin.evans@metoffice.gov.uk>
…change introduces.
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…sformation * upstream/master: EPPT3121 Add clip option to fine fuel moisture content calculation (metoppv#2317) Edit CLI docstring. (metoppv#2318) Update WeightAndBlend.process() to use *cubes and as_cubelist (metoppv#2314) Lighting in vicinity cell_method alignment for master (metoppv#2296) Add quantile mapping and associated tests (metoppv#2264) MOBT-1069: Using adjacent validity times in SAMOS (metoppv#2310) Mobt991 ApplySAMOS plugin distribution fix (metoppv#2311) Add attribute to realization clustering to record source realizations (metoppv#2305) MOBT-1070: Time-zone safe handling of time point extraction in SAMOS calibration (metoppv#2306) Set START_DATE_DICT to outside largest lag period to silence warnings (metoppv#2304) Eppt2408 implement initialisation process for fire severity iterative parameters (metoppv#2302) FireWeatherIndexBase plugin - change Error to Warning for input values outside expected ranges (metoppv#2301)
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Addresses https://github.com/metoppv/mo-blue-team/issues/1069
Adds the option, when training GAMs or estimating EMOS coefficients via SAMOS from parquet tables, to use adjacent validity times as part of the training data. This applies to both the forecasts and the matching truths.
For example from a 20250615T1200Z cycle, looking to calibrate the T+6 forecast valid at 20250615T1800Z, we would usually use historic forecasts and observations from 1800Z over the preceding training period. Using the
adjacent_rangeoption we can add +- N hours to this validity time, so assuming N=1, we would include historic forecasts and truths valid at 17Z, 18Z, and 19Z when creating the GAMs and estimating the coefficients.The intention of this is to smooth the performance of the calibration across lead-times such that the forecast behaviour is more similar from one hour to the next. It may also help with capturing more sparsely reported observations as the range of times over which they might be captured is larger for a given validity time (though in this case we could again see jumpy forecast behaviour as we are back to having a single VT potentially).
The impact of the change is best seen in the acceptance test data:
metoppv/improver_test_data#125
Testing: